Ultimately markets got the memo from the Fed. The rate hikes are not necessarily over, but they will not promise anything at this stage. USD bullish (again).
5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic or Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Fed Nugget: Why the Fed dot plot will remain hawkish
Given the information received since the last update of the dot plot in June, inflation has surprised to the upside, the growth gauges have surprised to the upside, while the labor market has surprised to the downside. Net/net no reason to alter the dot plot.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Services Nugget: How do the Central Banks react?
We are well under way in our Services Week with our focus on Services and in this note we wanted to highlight the issues central banks could face in a scenario in which manufacturing outpaces services.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
5 Things We Watch – Fed overtightening, Curve steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China
Ahead of the CPI release tomorrow we zoom out to provide you with the bigger picture and what to watch out for in global macro over the next weeks.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic or Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Consumer Watch: Is the FED & ECB nudging the same herd? 5 charts we watch
We’re skeptical of the “data-dependent” rear-view mirror approach by the FED & ECB. Refuting to provide guidance is one thing but are they listening to their crowds and acknowledging the differences?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Powell is gaining confidence, while Lagarde is losing it..
The Fed is getting increasingly confident that they can orchestrate a soft landing as the recession is no longer a base-case for them. Meanwhile, ECB and Christine Lagarde are losing confidence by the week.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit
It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic or Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Pause Watch: 25 bps and then a pause!?
Everything points to a 25 bps hike and then a pause from the Fed at today’s FOMC meeting so where does this leave us historically and what do we think about the outlook? Time for a Fed pause watch!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Central bank bonanza week with pause all over it
The big three central banks meet this week and we find a 25bp hike given for both the Fed and the ECB with limited forward guidance due to a lack of updated projections. It will prove to be an outright shocker if the BoJ moves the needle this week.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Brief Inflation Watch: Smack dab at our soft forecast!
Just in: A brief account of today’s US CPI report.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic or Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Bank Funding Watch: The lender of ‘favorite’ resort?
Emergency lending facilities provided by the Federal Reserve, and the BTFP in particular, relieved banks in distress and helped them stay afloat, but are the same risks still lurking or has the need for funding eased?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Are these ISM numbers recessionary?
We are back to the good old discussion on whether eight straight months of manufacturing contraction equals a recession or not. The jury is still out, and equity markets have not received the memo yet in case. The ISM Services will be a guiding star, but not a decisive one.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
U.S Debt Watch: Do we need this conversation again?
Pheew… close call! The bipartisan debt ceiling bill saved the U.S from economic disarray. Now we can all take a well-deserved summer holiday and bask in the sunshine of the long-term financial stability ensured by responsible lawmakers who have no interest in short-term solutions nor gains. But no – not so fast! We still have a looming government shutdown to attend to.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
5 Things We Watch – The AI bubble, EUR Liquidity, Pivot hopes, the bull case for markets and UK Inflation
With the recent central bank bonanza, pivot hopes and the ongoing rally in equities, there are plenty of things to take a look at in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’. Follow along, as we share our thoughts on what to look out for in the weeks to come.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic or Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Will the Fed convince markets that this is not a pause?
The Fed is not on pause. That is at least the message they try to convey to markets, but data will decide, and we have no concrete guidance on the path ahead. A well-orchestrated pause has an embedded hiking bias.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Central Bank Liveblog: FED LIVE BLOG
Welcome to the Central Bank Bonanza with meetings of both the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan. We’re covering it all live here on stenoresearch.com. Ask your questions below!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic or Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Hawks on parade!
The RBA and the BoC have given the global macro community a LOT to think about ahead of next week’s plethora of major central bank decisions. Is the Fed hike back on the table?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
5 things we watch: Return of the hawks, the TRY, OPEC+, US debt issuance and new regulation
BoC and RBA have hawked up the sentiment again, while forward-looking indicators point in the other direction. Here are the FIVE things we watch right now in global macro!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic or Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Saudi Arabia wants a fight with Biden, but they don’t have the upper hand
Saudi Arabia once again attempts to gain the upper hand in the oil-market, but struggle to get the momentum going. Meanwhile, this week’s data may look like Goldilocks is back in the making,.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Germany is in a recession
IFO seems to have peaked, and Germany likely already is in some sort of recession. Will the ECB care? And will EUR + DAX bulls care? FOMC Minutes reveal increasing divergence of views within the board.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: A pause is now the base-case
A pause is now the clear base case. The regional banking stress is now more equity/credit driven than deposit driven, which will be harder to backstop for the FDIC and the authorities. Will the ECB sound dovish?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for the Espresso: More hiccups or will JPOW & Lagarde sleep tight?
We suspect both Powell and Lagarde to be content with today’s releases but perhaps the cycle fools everyone again?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: The last hike in this cycle?
We expect the Fed to deliver the last hike in this cycle, while the ECB is likely to deliver a dovish hike on Thursday. A big week ahead for central banks!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Out of the box #1: The “mystery” of the growing US deficit and why it is likely going to lead to lower interest rates
The US budget deficit is a whooping 7.5% of GDP worse than what it should be given the healthy employment and growth numbers of the economy. Is the Inflation Reduction Act running wild or what’s going on?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Labor Market Watch: The final nail in the Coffin?
The unwavering strength of the labor market has backstopped the probability of a classic recession, but is data now finally beginning to show what we have all predicted?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Inflation Watch: Why inflation is not in the grave but a dead man walking
Peak inflation is in, but monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” as monetarists say. While Goods inflation is sliding, some areas are resilient and services inflation remains an issue. Even though expectations and soft data are perplexing, there are pockets of data indicating a fight-back to the weakening dove sentiment.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Debt Ceiling Countdown #4: The Chicken Game Catastrophe
When it comes to the debt ceiling, politicians are not the only ones asleep at the steering wheel. Political commentators, too, seem freakishly calm telling folks that Congress *eventually* has to reach a settlement on raising the debt ceiling. While I don’t disagree with the end-result, it is astounding how few are concerned with the likely government crisis that will unfold before a deal is struck. We are underestimating the power of the Freedom Caucus and overestimating Biden’s willingness to avoid a government shutdown. The cocktail is putting the U.S. on a path towards debt brinkmanship.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Inflation watch: 10 reasons why no one will talk inflation in 6 months from now
Inflation is already slowly but surely losing its limelight as the main concern for central banks for good reasons. No one will talk about inflation in 6 months, if forward looking indicators are right.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: 4 charts on the US labour market
It is the big NFP day, which will keep market participants busy on Good Friday. Here are the four labour market charts of relevance ahead of the release. We see DOWNSIDE risks to NFP.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
