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G3 Watch: Timing the first rate cut

G3 Watch: Timing the first rate cut

The first rate cut is a timing question from both the Fed, the ECB and the BoE now. How do we trade the first cut and why are seasonality issues important to bear in mind? Read along here.

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Something for your Espresso: The party is still ongoing!

Something for your Espresso: Phew..

A big central bank week is approaching its end and the Fed is back as the biggest dove in town. Does it make sense? Meanwhile, Oil demand dynamics keep delivering.

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EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling

EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling

After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality

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Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The Fed no longer does QT in practice as they likely fear the repercussions for the yield curve should they allow USD liquidity to truly dwindle. The ECB on the other hand remains steady in bringing liquidity down. EUR-flation will drop faster than USD-flation.

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Fed Nugget: Why the Fed dot plot will remain hawkish

Fed Nugget: Why the Fed dot plot will remain hawkish

Given the information received since the last update of the dot plot in June, inflation has surprised to the upside, the growth gauges have surprised to the upside, while the labor market has surprised to the downside. Net/net no reason to alter the dot plot.

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Fed Watch: Why should the Fed abandon the planned year-end hike?

Pause Watch: 25 bps and then a pause!?

Everything points to a 25 bps hike and then a pause from the Fed at today’s FOMC meeting so where does this leave us historically and what do we think about the outlook? Time for a Fed pause watch!

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