Fed Live Blog

Fed Live Blog

When Fed Chair Powell goes on stage tonight we of course stay on the line for live coverage of the interest rate decision and the following speech. Get prepared and follow the meeting with us, as well as getting the best takeaways here on our live blog!

Fed Watch: 25bps that they will woefully regret

Fed Watch: 25bps that they will woefully regret

The FOMC will likely decide to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps and regret it soon thereafter on Wednesday. Everything but the banking sector stress screams higher interest rates, why the Fed will attempt to regain control of the narrative.

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5 Things We Watch: Fed rhetoric, Chinese rebound, Chinese inventories, US labor market and a record-breaking yield curve inversion

5 Things We Watch: Fed rhetoric, Chinese rebound, Chinese inventories, US labor market and a record-breaking yield curve inversion

Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.

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Something for your Espresso: No one’s willing to address the root cause yet

Something for your Espresso: Powell the flip-flopper

Powell is back as the hawk we knew from 2022, but the extreme data-dependency is volatility creating by design. One soft inflation and/or job report and we will back at where we were just a few weeks ago. Buckle up.

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5 Things We Watch: Fed rhetoric, Chinese rebound, Chinese inventories, US labor market and a record-breaking yield curve inversion

5 things we watch – Fed policy, positive carry, oil markets, the USD, and implications of the newly appointed BoJ Governor

Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them. Dig in!

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Good Morning, America: Not a disinflationary biggie

Good Morning, America: Not a disinflationary biggie

The disinflationary vibes are not tattooed all over this inflation report despite a cooling yearly inflation pace for the seventh consecutive month. BUT.. do note that Powells target variable keeps cooling!

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US inflation watch – Charts, charts, charts

US inflation watch – Charts, charts, charts

With the recent almost farcical economic data coming out of the US, we bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.

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Something for your Espresso: No one’s willing to address the root cause yet

Something for your Espresso: 5% wage growth in Japan

The RBA echoed rhetoric from other central banks and will frontload a few hikes while assessing the “extent” of damage done to the economy of former lags. The question is now if Powell rocks the boat on the coordinated central bank rhetoric today.

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Good Morning, America: Not a disinflationary biggie

Good Morning America: A global coordinated “inflation has peaked” narrative from major central banks?

The extent of hikes will now be 100% data-dependent and guided by how lags of former hikes will hit the economy in both the US, the UK and the Euro zone. This almost felt like a global coordinated “inflation has peaked” narrative from central banks. What are the ramifications?

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Something for your Espresso: No one’s willing to address the root cause yet

Something for your Espresso: Powell BLEW it! Lagarde will not!

Weaker USD, lower rates, performing equities and credits. Powell blew it if he truly wanted to push back on loosening financial conditions. The Fed is now talking about the extent of hikes instead of the pace of hikes, which is an open door to a pause already in March. Position accordingly, not least as the ECB has a rare opportunity to “hawk things up” further.

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U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off

U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off

On Thursday, the U.S. hits its 31.4 trillion-dollar debt limit. If Congress fails to raise or suspend the limit, the U.S. risks defaulting on its foreign debt with global economic ramifications. So naturally, Steno Research is launching a new ‘U.S. Debt Countdown’ watch series to keep tabs on when the U.S reaches the magic ‘X Date’: the day when The Treasury runs out of ‘extraordinary measures’ to postpone the worst-case scenario, and must succumb to default.

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