Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
“EM by EM: Insights on the Emerging Markets Macro Landscape” is our weekly editorial authored by Emil Møller, a former trader at a US-based family office and newly appointed Head of Research at Steno Research.
We still don’t have much faith in Argentine dollarization, and it seems that the markets have jumped the gun. The real question is whether Milei has also followed suit?
China is still in a state of crisis but perhaps recent dove-vibe in the US could sustain the run of some of the 2023 FX winners? Read our take below
The recent howler of 30y UST auction made yields spike and has served as a reality check for the brief optimism in emerging markets. But we refuese to concede to the negativity – We illustrate the long-term prospects for Latin America in the new deglobalized order below
The Chinese Stimulus will likely prove to be false flag and Yellen & Powell looks to have killed the USD streak. Read below for our thoughts on it and how we will likely play it
The long awaited stimulus package is here! But it is anything but overwhelming… Read our takeaways here
It is increasingly impossible to dissect what is going on in financial markets from what is taking place on the Geopolitical scene. Read below for our full take on the latest events
This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
Oil prices have collapsed in recent days undermining one side of the USD/Oil wreckingball. Good news for EM’s generally? We offer our takeaway below and how we prefer to play it
When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
FED is pausing but EM’s are already fed up and the dynamics of the 2022-trade remains our frame of guidance. But what could turn the table?
7.30 was the line in the sand but can the Chinese defend their thench? We find it unlikely. But the battleground is not a safe place yet
Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
The Turkish central bank hiked the interest rates by 750 basis points against the market expectations of 200 bp underlying this month and both stocks & lira rallied on the back of it. Where is the Turkey case heading from here? Read our view here
Finance Journos are busy flying this week. But what is going on with BRICS & the FED? EM’s care more about the latter this week
In 2021, I took a bearish position in the Chinese real estate market. However, the scale of the repercussions stemming from the ongoing deleveraging process in Chinese real estate has raised our concerns. Despite this, we believe that the CCP will likely need to intervene in the near term to address the situation
FED & ECB near peak policy rate and UST curve seems to be steepening. Meanwhile, the Chinese are still late with their stimulus package. Where does that leave EM FX? We give our general assessment here.
Plenty of bets in LatAm carry trades unwound this week on the back of BoJ YCC tweak. But perhaps the LatAmsphere has a USD winner short term?
We are back for another big Central Bank week. 7 charts we think are worth paying attention to in the EM space as DM central bankers approach their final hike
We have been bullish on Brazil for months and got the market and timing right. But what about Brazilian stocks? Could they prove to be a buy here?
Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023. But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes? We give our take here and assess the structural patterns at play in Mexico in relation to recent performance and the geopolitical climate.
Gold has enjoyed a revival on the back of inflation and monetary expansion. But what happens when the tailwinds disappear?
2021 will be remembered as a great policy error year at the FED and the ECB. But other central banks saw the inflation coming. Will they be in front of the curve again in 2023?
As a new addition to our editorial, I will now provide a monthly overview of emerging markets, taking a step back from the intricacies and offering a broader perspective. The purpose of this feature is to outline our current positioning within the market cycle and highlight the key factors we are monitoring surrounding EM.
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.
As the Lira is trying to outcompete the depreciation of the Venezuelan Bolivar and the volatility of dogecoin, we provide our view and assessment of the near-term impact of Erdogan’s narrow victory. Markets were not impressed by the outcome but will the skepticism remain the prevailing narrative?
Having commenced this series with a bullish perspective on Brazil, it has now been approximately two months since my initial analysis. As I reassess the situation, I contemplate whether the trade is losing momentum or if there are still untapped profits to be seized.
As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position
In recent weeks, social media and leading financial media have been flooded with sensational articles about the dollar’s demise. In this piece, I will provide an analysis of the actual immediate obstacles facing the American dollar where USD hegemony is being undermined. Given the current US debt ceiling theater, one can scarcely think of a better point of reference than the debt default champion of the Western hemisphere: Argentina
In Q1, we had a long position in copper. However, since our exit, industrial metals have experienced a reversal, and most of the gains YTD have been wiped out. But could the copper story have another leg to it? In this piece, we will share our perspective combining the macro with the development from the relevant EM frontlines.