As the Lira is trying to outcompete the depreciation of the Venezuelan Bolivar and the volatility of dogecoin, we provide our view and assessment of the near-term impact of Erdogan’s narrow victory. Markets were not impressed by the outcome but will the skepticism remain the prevailing narrative?
“EM by EM: Insights on the Emerging Markets Macro Landscape” is our weekly editorial authored by Emil Møller, a former trader at a US-based family office and newly appointed Head of Research at Steno Research.
EM by EM #6 – is Brazil still attractive?
Having commenced this series with a bullish perspective on Brazil, it has now been approximately two months since my initial analysis. As I reassess the situation, I contemplate whether the trade is losing momentum or if there are still untapped profits to be seized.
EM by EM #5 Stairs up and elevator down in China?
As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position
EM by EM #4 – Argentina and the real de-dollarisation
In recent weeks, social media and leading financial media have been flooded with sensational articles about the dollar’s demise. In this piece, I will provide an analysis of the actual immediate obstacles facing the American dollar where USD hegemony is being undermined. Given the current US debt ceiling theater, one can scarcely think of a better point of reference than the debt default champion of the Western hemisphere: Argentina
EM by EM #3 – Copper comeback?
In Q1, we had a long position in copper. However, since our exit, industrial metals have experienced a reversal, and most of the gains YTD have been wiped out. But could the copper story have another leg to it? In this piece, we will share our perspective combining the macro with the development from the relevant EM frontlines.
EM by EM #2 – Don’t fight the Xi
Following the publication of my EM by EM debut piece, where I highlighted the attractive set-up for Brazilian sovereigns (which thus far have fared well), we now shift our focus across the Pacific to Beijing.
EM by EM #1 – Time to buy Brazilian sovereigns?
While the global macro wheel is heading for a slowdown, could Lula prove to be the least anticipated fiscal hawk given the current state of affairs?