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Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 playbook is useful again

The “soft landing” narrative has gained material momentum in the mainstream coverage ahead of 2024, which is a clear risk to the outlook. It always looks like a soft landing until the nosedive.
2023-11-26

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.

The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast. This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one. A surprise effect is typically needed to push the economy into recession and the conditions for decision making are now much more complacent than just a quarter or two ago.

The main-stream economic coverage has also shifted from recession to soft landing swiftly, which is something we typically see ahead of actual recessions. Therefore it is our chart of the week, which reminds us of the 2007/2008 playbook.

As per usual, we go through each macro asset class with a couple of KEY highlights from our model package. Let’s get to the details.

Chart of the week: Bye bye recession, hello soft landing

The “soft landing” narrative has gained material momentum in the mainstream coverage ahead of 2024, which is a clear risk to the outlook. It always looks like a soft landing until the nosedive.

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