There is currently an almost goldilocksy vibe in the air, which could continue throughout October. The outlook is brightening short-term and we are loading up on risk.
Steno Signals #115 – The head-fake business cycle strikes again
The manufacturing rebound in H1 2024 was another head-fake, and we were correct in predicting that everyone would call off the recession. Now, the market is likely going to “reprice” the recession risk again.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: 5 Charts on the Nosediving Chinese Indicators!
The Chinese momentum has come to a sudden halt, and we think it is related to the front-loading of imports due to tariff fears. Could China become the victim of a wait-and-see approach until after New Years?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: Why China is trying to wreak havoc on your Gold longs
The Fed looks likely to commence a cutting cycle in September, but can we use the typical cutting cycle playbook in EM- fixed income and Commodities? China is (potentially) wreaking havoc with the playbook!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Energy Cable: The demand outlook in China is dreadful to say the least …
The local demand in China remains on the floor, which is an issue for the broad commodity bet with China typically being the largest net consumer. China is exporting a lot, but they are not (yet) raising prices. It may eventually arrive and we remain on PPI Watch accordingly.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: The Gold Rush Continues!
The Chinese retail buying of gold continues, but Western funds now also see a compelling real-rates case to join the party. The big question is whether the USD will weaken sufficiently to reduce the Asian demand for precious metals.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Gung ho or no?
The inflation report holds the potential to fuel the liquidity beta risk party further, and if we take clues from China, we ought to expect a soft(ish) report. The tide needs to turn on USD vs Asian FX to truly alter the picture.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: Western investors are tired of China and Japan “crying wolf”
The JPY is once again suffering from a weak CNY, and the metals trade is not performing despite FX debasement risks in Asia. Have markets gotten tired of the co-ordinated “cry wolf” rhetoric from Asian monetary authorities?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: Is the Chinese copper demand down 40%?
The Chinese apparent copper consumption is absolutely on the floor, while the copper market is turning bid again. Is the Chinese consensus getting too upbeat again? And how will it market in the West during the summer?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #104 – Get ready for a WAVE of liquidity in July!
While the rate of change is turning bearish on growth- and inflation, we may (temporarily) end up in a goldilocks scenario in July. Bonds tend to perform alongside equities in such a scenario. Buy risk and head for the summer cottage?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: Is China making a fool out of Western metals speculants?
We are still observing China’s next moves in the copper market, as inventories at Chinese exchanges are booming while they are running low in the West. Meanwhile, our studies reveal that the physical demand in China is absolutely on the floor!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: The China bet and the copper story are both old hat by now
The short-term macro bet on the Chinese build-up of copper reserves seems more than exhausted. Cluster risks remain excessive in copper contracts maturing in July, while Lat-Am could be an interesting middleman bet in the meantime.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: China’s profit cycle is improving
The Chinese profit cycle seems to be improving (from abysmal levels) and the big question is whether the export prices from China to the West will start to increase as a consequence.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Are we suddenly using AI as an excuse for everything?
The AI wave is suddenly used as an excuse for right about everything in equity markets to commodity markets to rates markets. Is that even fair?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: Have Copper markets been hit by a bus full of tourists or by the Chinese economy?
The front-month Copper bet has been extremely popular in recent weeks/months, but is the Copper market being run over by a bus full of tourists or by an actual increase in the demand in the global economy? All roads lead to Shanghai!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Chinese optimism prevails, but the CNY pressure is REAL!
Chinese equities and metal proxies continue to surge, but FX settlement numbers from April hint that the FX pressures in CNY space are very very real. Is it generally very expensive to decide on the “slow burning path”.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #100 – China’s MAJOR power grab on Copper supply chains
The next few weeks will be absolutely vital in copper space as we will see whether China will offload Copper stocks to the West as they are currently paid to do. If they DON’T, we can conclude that China is building stock for strategic purposes.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: A wedge in between the Chinese consumer- and producer..
China is exporting inflation again as the industrial production complex is starting to fire on all cylinders. Meanwhile, the consumer remains pessimistic in China and RE woes will leave CNY rates low.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..
The Chinese industrial production pace is back at pre-pandemic levels, while the stock market has never recovered. We are slowly but surely seeing a build up of momentum that could turn out to be very self-fulfilling.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Things are heating up in USDCNY (again)!
If the Biden admin moves the needle first in the flared-up trade conflict, China may decide to let go of the USD/CNY exchange rate in response. Things are heating up again!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Enjoy the breathing space while it lasts..
The weakness in Asian FX is back and there are signs of a bottoming in Oil prices. Will the breathing space only last until next week’s CPI report? Meanwhile, the UK could prove to be a US case T+6.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Sticky prices acknowledged right, left and center
The RBA echoed the Fed and sees sticky prices as a reason to remain on hold. The RBA has adopted a classic symmetrical stance, something that could spread across the G10, unless the growth picture stalls further.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: A week of respite before the inflation numbers?
The US calendar is light in the week ahead, meaning that European central banks take center stage. Will high-beta assets continue to soar on hopes (expectations) of cuts?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #98 – The recession panic is back right as liquidity is returning!
The recession narrative has returned after a series of weak PMIs. Betting against the returning recession hysteria has been a profitable strategy since April-2020, but will it be so again this time? Hallelujah!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it
The list of triggers for a material devaluation of the CNY keeps getting longer and action is probably imminent. The question is how markets will react to such an event and whether it will prove to be a new trend.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Waiting for the dust to settle..
The embedded value in risk assets is improving, but the USD wrecking ball will continue into this week. The question is whether we have imminent action ahead from the BoJ/MoF or the PBoC as a consequence.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #96 – A major devaluation of the CNY could be imminent
China is preparing for something major. That seems increasingly obvious judging from the stockpiling of important resources. Could it be that they are preparing a major one-off devaluation of the CNY?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: More USD strength is coming!
The strong Chinese GDP numbers were overshadowed by a continued weakness in Asian FX trends. Energy and metals typically continue to perform in such an environment.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!
The strategic shift from Real Estate to Green-tech manufacturing in China is very evident and it will likely impact Europe to a much larger extent than the US. Counterintuitively, it means that two of the strongest inflation hedges stem from China and Mexico simultaneously. Here is why!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?
While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.
Already a member? Login here
