The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
No matter where you turn, strategists and analysts are calling the rally in risk assets overdone, arguing that the damage to the economy is already baked in. But as we’ve seen repeatedly, that damage keeps getting delayed by frontloading. And if trade deals are actually on the table soon (admittedly a big assumption), then the outlook is far more procyclical than what the IMF, Bloomberg, and others are currently expecting.
Risk assets are partying like April didn’t happen, which begs the question: are markets slowly but surely starting to shrug off the macro risks associated with the US-China trade war? It all depends on the US’s ability to close deals—and quickly—before macro data starts to roll over for good.
The more we look at it, the more it seems the economic shock unfolding in the US is of similar magnitude to what we saw in March 2020—a forced lockdown of the global economy led by shattering global supply chains and trade.
We’ve been all over the short USD trade this year, but the full scope of potential debasement still feels elusive. Trump is now openly floating the idea of firing the Fed Chair, while Waller seems to be holding his job interviews in public. Position accordingly.
Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.
Powell’s potential heir may be found in Waller, who surprised markets with a dovish pivot yesterday. The ECB and BoC now face the tariffs shock, and risk reacting too late as disinflation gathers pace.
With the USD losing ground against all major peers, it’s time to ask yourself whether you’re sufficiently hedged against the ongoing debasement. It’s hard to envision a scenario that results in a stronger USD from here.
The slowdown in U.S. growth has so far been fairly isolated to trade and services data, which is why soft data has been weak while hard data hasn’t budged. When looking at domestic activity, the U.S. economy is still doing fine—for now. But is that something to cheer for?
Trump has nuked the business cycle, and the wheels are coming off. Inflation is about to fall like a stone, and central banks will panic-ease soon—even if they won’t admit it. A decently strong NFP report paired with Powell’s speech was exactly what investors didn’t need.
As Political Fragmentation Rises, Bitcoin’s Role as a Borderless Asset Comes Into Focus
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Economic textbooks would have you believe that inflation should spike in the U.S. and fall outside of it following the implementation of tariffs. But right now, it seems the opposite might be happening. Could that really be the case?
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
CTAs have been long the USD and short global Fixed Income, but the tides are now starting to turn. The stars are aligning for lower bond yields, while the equity picture is a bit more mixed.
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Based on our proprietary positioning data, our best guess is still that hedge funds are max long the USD while being heavily short US Fixed Income, a trend that has only magnified in recent weeks. We probably still have more squeezing to do as growth weakens in the US.
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Markets continue to stay long the USD while staying short US bonds, which will likely lead to a material wrongfooting across big players if bond yields continue down, which is the clear message from both Trump and Powell!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Has Deepseek changed anything when it comes to positioning and sentiment? Not really, and Tech continues to be a fan-favourite in equity space!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Everything at the moment seems to revolve around Trump and his policies. How have markets been positioned heading into inauguration week, and is it possible to cut through the noise?
The consumption part of the economy is probably THE macro variable to watch in 2025. We provide a detailed overview of the state of the consumer across the US, Eurozone and China here!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Ahead of the CPI report, we share key positioning trends across all asset classes.
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape—all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!