Watch Series

Everything at the moment seems to revolve around Trump and his policies. How have markets been positioned heading into inauguration week, and is it possible to cut through the noise?

The consumption part of the economy is probably THE macro variable to watch in 2025. We provide a detailed overview of the state of the consumer across the US, Eurozone and China here!

Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Ahead of the CPI report, we share key positioning trends across all asset classes.

Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape—all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Equities are off to a bad start as rates continue to climb higher, and positioning has shifted significantly in bonds since Christmas. More downside risk looms if volatility continues to rise, which seems likely.

With the start of 2025 rapidly approaching, we share some insights from our data library that can identify the direction in which things are moving globally from the start of 2025!

Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

As we approach year-end markets have started reacting strangely to data prints from both the US, EZ and UK in rates space, all of a sudden withdrawing a lot of the cuts in 2025 from forward-pricing. What’s going on?

Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

There are a lot of signs that the current rally in risk assets is driven primarily by continued flows despite macro showing mixed signs, which begs the question whether the clock is ticking for risk assets like US equities and crypto.

Debt will grow when Scholz leaves office, but Germany is still better off than hopeless France.

Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Hedge funds are heavily favoring US > Europe across all asset classes, but what if the Europe trade is starting to reverse while the US trade is running on fumes?

It might be time to load up on European risk as Germany is moving towards an easier fiscal policy stance, which in turn may force the ECB to soften up on balance sheet projections as Bunds (and other European govies) are already trading at extremes versus the swap.

It’s time for another Steno Research Q&A, where we delve into the latest developments in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Prime minister Michel Barnier’s government will fall this evening barring a miracle.

Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape—all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

The US is now being heavily favored across positioning gauges, which begs the question: is it time to be a bit more cautious about US risk assets going into 2025?

Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Everyone and their mothers are long equities, and we would need a substantial trigger to truly reverse momentum at these levels. Where are the cluster risks after the positioning normalization that followed the Trump victory, and what should you look out for as we approach year-end?

Germany faces mounting challenges as political uncertainty and economic pressures collide. With no clear coalition emerging, February 2025’s election could lead to prolonged gridlock. Global trade tensions, potential U.S. tariffs, and sluggish manufacturing growth weigh heavily. Can new leadership or a shift in the anticipated course for the U.S. trade policy provide the course correction Germany needs?

Could the Trump administration prove to be less brutal on trade now that Musk and Vivek have fully endorsed the Milei policy mix? We take a closer look at Elon Musk’s supply chains and how they might influence the Trump administration’s stance.

Markets are front-running an anticipated U.S. liquidity surge, yet in Europe, the ECB’s slower response to liquidity challenges is adding pressure. Meanwhile, in China, growth appears artificially propped up by official targets rather than driven by real demand, with domestic consumption remaining weak.

The Fed is not returning to 2% inflation this cycle, as we’ve suggested for some time. The question now is how this will shape returns in USD, fixed income, Crypto and equities heading into 2025, given that the Fed will ease regardless.

We see the China briefing as a major disappointment, while Germany looks like a vulnerable case as well. Meanwhile, some Trump bets still have plenty of potential, especially if bond yields are contained.

We have seen the Trump trades roar in Fixed Income and FX, but have other markets started to shift toward a Trump victory as well? Let’s find out!