Filter by Categories
Watch Series
The Great Game
Daily Post
Steno Signals
Free Content
Emerging Markets
Video

Watch Series

The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.

QUANT SIGNALS: USDMXN

QUANT SIGNALS: USDMXN

MXN sold off massively following the Mexican election last week but we still view the MXN as a clear-cut ‘trade balance’ play. As long as the trade ties between China and the US increasingly necessitate a ‘value-add middleman,’ Mexico remains in an advantageous position, regardless of whether the president is Sheinbaum or Obrador. 

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

The US CPI report today was admittedly decently soft, which allows for the Fed to confirm a potential pivot later. However, we’re still fearful of the forward looking indicators and rising freight rates, making us believe that this is not something that markets should get used to.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Ifo Watch – Is Germany rebounding against all odds?

Ifo Watch – Is Germany rebounding against all odds?

The slightly hawkish HICP print from Germany today has sent yields higher despite the CPI metric surprising dovishly. Meanwhile, the recently released Ifo details hint of a potential comeback in the German economy, which is far from consensus.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

QUANT SIGNALS: USDMXN

Quant Signals: PCA model and Backtesting Features

Using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model to analyze assets across financial markets provides a powerful framework for investment decisions. By mapping out the macro anatomy of a given asset, PCA identifies key trends and underlying patterns that influence price fluctuations and market dynamics.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning towards increasing growth, but NOT inflation

Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back

We have for a long time been framing real world demand as the reason why real world assets like commodities and real estate have been lagging behind. With the supply side of the equation getting tight, while demand has stayed strong, prices are starting to move, fast! And positioning follows.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Portfolio Watch: Short metals and Europe but long (US) liquidity sensitive assets

Portfolio Watch: Are you paying attention to China?

Chinese trends are through the roof and the recent initiatives to prop up struggling developers seem to be a lot more serious than the “cry wolf” initiatives seen through 2023. Is the Chinese trend just getting started?

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

QUANT SIGNALS: USDMXN

Quant Signals: Central Bank Sentiment Indicators

Our updated state-of-the-art Central Bank Sentiment indicators are flagging important changes in communication dynamics since the beginning of the year. We recently upgraded our sentiment measurement to a more fine-tuned and nuanced NLP model that effectively captures the meaning of Central Banker rhetoric and here share key findings.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

US CPI Review – Admittedly a soft report, but NOT the new normal

US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April

The US CPI report came in a tad on the soft side, which is good news for the rate cut crowd, and risk assets will likely be allowed to rally further from here with lower USD-rates feeding into FCIs during May. Meanwhile, real-time gauges of activity already hint of a comeback relative to the soft April patch.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.


WELCOME TO STENO RESEARCH

Sign up to receive free weekly
newsletters and macro nuggets

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.