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Watch Series

The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.

US Debt Watch: Time for lengthy shutdown?

US Debt Watch: Time for lengthy shutdown?

The U.S government will shut down on Sunday when FY23 funding elapses with no spending bill to replace it. This is how we assess the shutdown unfolding and how it will affect the outcome of the final 2024 budget.

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Ifo Nugget: Now good news are bad news

Ifo Nugget: Now good news are bad news

With today’s release of the total Ifo data from the manufacturing sector we wanted to quickly touch upon the main data points we are looking at. We particularly note that good news in Germany, is now bad news for the EUR, since an uptick in the industry means more gas buying, which in turn means more FX outflow.

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Japan Watch: How will Ueda cope with all of the “pauses”?

Japan Watch: How will Ueda cope with all of the “pauses”?

Ueda has got the situation under control and managed to orchestrate a whole string of positive market developments on the back of his monetary policy mix. There are no major reasons to change course. Steepen the JPY curve slowly, while accommodating the short-end.

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Ifo Nugget: Now good news are bad news

Fed Nugget: Why the Fed dot plot will remain hawkish

Given the information received since the last update of the dot plot in June, inflation has surprised to the upside, the growth gauges have surprised to the upside, while the labor market has surprised to the downside. Net/net no reason to alter the dot plot.

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Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Last week we tried to assess where in the cycle we’re currently at and whether the recession risks were receding. In this sequel, we’ll take a look at how various asset classes perform during hikes, pauses, and cuts respectively. Hold on your cheer for cuts maybe…

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Portfolio Watch: The last gasp of a dying man?

Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?

The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.

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