Disinflation is simply not happening as fast as anticipated by our models, but base effects remain very benign in coming months. The stickiness in services is eye-catching, but there is light at the end of the tunnel for the ECB.
The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
How well is Russia’s economy doing two years into the war? And how will the upcoming election play out? Read our explainer
Money growth has improved lately in the US, while there are trillions parked on the time deposit / MMF side-lines. If the Fed cuts rates into the current rally, we may see another 2021/2022 melt-up.
Commodities positioning have remained fairly silent over the past few weeks, but we are seeing early signs of appetite for cyclical commodities now. Early innings of a cyclical rebound or just noise?
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Nat Gas levels are far below sector break-evens, making it a tug of war between short-sellers (mainly CTAs) and producers. Nat Gas looks like a bargain, but let’s see whether the chicken comes home to roost.
The gap between trends in forward looking inflation indicators in Germany and the US is striking and increasing. This may be the most important macro trend right now..
The ECB is scared of acting ahead of the Fed, why a substantial dovish surprise is needed in February HICP to bring about a decent probability of spring action from the ECB. Find our updated now-casts here.
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
We add to our cyclical rotation, while we take profit in our very profitable tech bets.
Powell keeps referring to a labor market getting into better balance, but is the labour market really moving into a better balance? It is highly doubtful after watching these two charts.
If a rebound in manufacturing is truly happening, current dynamics in FX option markets provide cheap leverage and good opportunities to capitalize on our trading ideas. In the equity space, broad momentum is slowly creeping back in ETF fund flows, and the early reacceleration in prices haven’t affected sentiment it seems.
Forward-looking indicators are telling us that the cyclical momentum will return. Here is how we trade it!
Is Nat Gas suddenly the cheapest macro asset on earth? Natural Gas prices are through the floor, which dynamics have improved in the oil space. Let’s have a look at it.
Markets have started to factor in good news as bullish, which all of a sudden makes market pricing (on equities mostly) indicative of economic expectations once again. Are there still opportunities in the cyclical momentum?
Christina Lagarde says wage data will be “critically important” in deciding when to loosen monetary policy in the EU. So naturally, Steno Research takes inventory of ongoing labour negotiations and rising pay in the EU.
Container rates have peaked for now, but without progress in the Red Sea, there is a risk of a return of higher rates by the spring-time. The damage for US inflation has likely already been done, but we see signs of exhaustion in the long energy bet.
More and more signs point to a plateau in inflation in the US, which makes a return to 2% tough in this cycle. The odds are better in the Eurozone, while the UK remains a basket case.
Another smoking hot inflation report in the “sticky” categories. Shelter is re-accelerating, while wage-heavy categories continue to surprise on the upside. Goods deflation remains ongoing.
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
From 200 bps worth of cuts priced in for June across the big 3 CBs in the start of January to 100 bps now. Does it move the needle or is everybody still on the risk-wagon?
Last week we were close to writing our obituary on our crude oil long position and this week we are almost back in green. The last few weeks in crude have surely been something!
Markets betting on one of the softest MoM services CPI prints in UK inflation history in January. Feasible? Yes, but…
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
With revisions out of the way, we can look forward to the US CPI report on Tuesday. Everything points towards a softening and a May cut should be back in focus!
Freight rates have started to level off, but remember that this is the “soft season” for shipping volumes. From March and onwards, the shipping volumes will accelerate sharply.
A lot has been said about the Non Farm Payroll report last week yet we believe certain aspects have still largely flown under the radar. Read which below
The revised weights -and seasonal patterns will be revealed by the BLS on Friday, while we will get the updated weights from Europe alongside an understanding of the tax impact on HICP inflation.
With beyond robust US economic growth, the interplay of growth, inflation, and liquidity takes center stage. How will this persuasive expansion shape the inflation trajectory and inform structural asset allocation strategies?
Is inflation going to re-accelerate? The bottom is in for the SLOOS survey, which tends to be a strong cyclical indicator in the US economy.