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The Week At A Glance: ISMs, NFP, FOMC & QRA to put even more pressure on USD rates?

Loads of USD key figures and we mostly lean in a hawkish direction. This could re-fuel strong flows into the USD and paid USD rates positions. Here is why in our “the week at a glance” publication.
2024-04-29
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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Event 1 (Mon/Wed): A QRA nothing burger?
The QRA announcement will be released in a few hours (on Monday) while the issuance details will be released on Wednesday.

We generally don’t see any reasons to fear the Q2 issuance as a strong tax-season has been confirmed with the TGA standing at 941bn dollars, which is almost 200bn above the target range. The TGA also printed above the target range going into Q2, making it unlikely that the US Treasury turns the heat on in the issuance pace. We see a small downgrade of the Q2 number (202bn) as the most likely.

For Q3, there is a material net uptick in the issuance pace again (due to changing seasonals) and a number above 750$bn will likely serve as a reminder that the issuance pace remains high. Q3 issuance targets hold the potential to spook rates markets again.

No major tricks are expected from Yellen short-term in this report, while the bill issuance will likely be increased markedly in Q3/Q4 to tempt the last 450bn out of the ON RRP ahead of the election data.

Chart 1a: TGA running above target before the release of the QRA

Loads of USD key figures and we mostly lean in a hawkish direction. This could re-fuel strong flows into the USD and paid USD rates positions. Here is why in our “the week at a glance” publication.

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