There are early signs that Political risks have plateaued in the Oil space and US military retaliations may not be as escalatory as portrayed by many media outlets. Read our week’s geopolitics take below!
The Great Game – Iran-USA War?
Are Iran and the US headed for war? What steps lay ahead of us? And how could it spill over in to oil prices and inflation?
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EM by EM #39: All roads out of China lead to goods disinflation
Geopolitics and fiscal excess are fueling price pressures in global macro. But there’s one actor that could combine the two and undermine the inflationary momentum
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US Policy Watch: Is Trump’s nomination done and dusted after tonight?
Iowa only matters for DeSantis, New Hampshire is crucial for Haley, and South Carolina is important for everyone.
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EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war
The upcoming Taiwan election is just one chapter in the larger narrative of US-Sino relations, which is poised to return to the forefront of financial markets in the 2024 US election year. Will Taipei further contribute to the rising tension?
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Great Game – Climate, chips and corruption!
COP28, Gaza, and Japan have taken center stage in our analysis of global geopolitics this week. Read our 3 key points below!
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EM by EM #32: Keep calm & Carry Lira?
Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
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5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?
This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
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Policy Watch: Speaker McCarthy is out – what happens to the Spending Bill?
After a series of eventful days on Capitol Hill, we present our key takeaways below. We remain committed to covering and sharing our perspective as the situation continues to evolve.
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US Debt Watch: Time for lengthy shutdown?
The U.S government will shut down on Sunday when FY23 funding elapses with no spending bill to replace it. This is how we assess the shutdown unfolding and how it will affect the outcome of the final 2024 budget.
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EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg
Finance Journos are busy flying this week. But what is going on with BRICS & the FED? EM’s care more about the latter this week
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Outside the Box #10 What if China favors bridges over credit cards once more?
The West sent checks, while China focused on supply-side policies in response to Covid. But what will Beijing do now?
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EM by EM #8 The Indian elephant in the room- will it keep holding up?
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.
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EM by EM #7 Is Turkey to TRY a pivot?
As the Lira is trying to outcompete the depreciation of the Venezuelan Bolivar and the volatility of dogecoin, we provide our view and assessment of the near-term impact of Erdogan’s narrow victory. Markets were not impressed by the outcome but will the skepticism remain the prevailing narrative?
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Europolitics watch #2: The Tory Tragedy isn’t about division – it’s about defeatism
12 years of infighting in the Conservative party has trapped Rishi Sunak in a doom-loop between economic crisis and a defeatist Tory MP group. Will the 2024 general election clear the path for reform?
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The Great Game #6 – European Gas Drought?
Will the new price cap drive Europe into gas shortages next winter? And how will Xi and Putin capitalize on this?
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