5 Things We Watch: Iran, China, Crypto, Inflation and the Fed
1. US-Iran War?
Tensions are undeniably increasing, and it is probable that we will observe further escalation in the weeks ahead. However, it is crucial to approach the spectrum between peace and war with a more nuanced perspective. There are numerous stages and measures in between these extremes, demanding careful navigation by both Iran and the US in the coming weeks.
Although a full-scale military conflict is not our primary expectation, we consider it prudent to hedge against potential spillover effects resulting from the ongoing uncertainty in the region. We have taken a long position in oil partially due to this perspective
Chart 1: Conflict Map
Macro is on the move and we have diverging trends in inflation. Find our brief overview of the five themes that move markets the most this week in global macro.