The USD is on the move and as per usual, repercussions are felt across the financial markets. Disinflation seems to be pretty across most of the globe and China is now actively exporting lower prices again. Position accordingly.
Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
Steno Signals #50 – Singing Hallelujah while sleeping at the wheel!
AI is mana sent from heaven, while McCarthy and Biden have allegedly agreed on a debt ceiling deal. We continue to favor positions with a positive beta to slowing inflation despite the recent concerns around stickier for longer.
Steno Research Live Portfolio
We have launched our live portfolio monitor, which allows you to track our performance and our positions in real-time. The live feed will be available for premium subscribers only, while we will deliver occasional updates on the composition for basic subscribers as well.
Steno Signals #49 – Everything related to the deposit crisis keeps worsening beneath the hood
Given the lack of an imminent economic crash risk, bond bears have been back in the driver’s seat. No news is bond bearish news, which in turn is likely to exacerbate the already worsening root cause of the deposit crisis. We are on high alert for the ramifications of the price action in the USD.
Steno Signals #48 – Markets vastly underestimate the impact on USD funding from the debt ceiling
The USD debt ceiling is a returning topic and it’s typically not overly important for markets, but this time is likely to be different. The repercussions for USD funding markets may be material and in sharp contrast to consensus expectations the USD may stage the biggest comeback since Lazarus.
Steno Signals #47 – The correct calculations on how severe this banking crisis is..
How do we approach the most anticipated recession in newer history when the labor market keeps holding up? And how severe is the banking crisis in a historical context? We aim at providing you with the answers here.
All eyes are on the Fed and ECB in the coming days! We have got you covered with our LIVEBLOG throughout Wednesday and Thursday.
Steno Signals #46 – Liquidity is drying up fast! Sell in May and go away?
We have been bullish on equities through the year but now see increasing signs warranting a defensive shift in positioning. Liquidity is drying up both in Europe and the US, and BoJ has effectively made further liquidity adding interventions unnecessary. China may be the only place on earth with positive liquidity trends.
Steno Signals #45 – 4 ways consensus could be wrongfooted
Here is a list of four concrete ways that consensus could be wrongfooted based on my discussions and findings after having travelled Asian institutions last week.
Steno Signals #44 – Are you sure that you prefer another currency to the USD?
The de-dollarization chatter is back after the IMF COFER data showed a new drop in the relative size of USD FX reserves in Q4-2022. Currently, everyone agrees that the USD will weaken from here, which is when you need to become worried.
Steno Signals #43 – Slow walking into a recessionary credit crunch
Evidence is gathering that the SVB-fueled banking stress indeed will turn into a recession, but instead of a fast and rapid liquidity driven recession, we are rather slow-walking into a credit crunch over summer.
Steno Signals #42 – 4 take-aways from investor meetings in New York
Back after a great week in The Big Apple. Investors have four major themes on their radar as I see it. Today we digest those themes and asses how to trade them! Enjoy
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Steno Signals #41 – Deutsche, Deustche alles ist vorbei?
Deustche Bank is selling off rapidly without an evident trigger event. What is going on? Is the crisis spreading to Europe and will it turn into a credit crisis? We look at the situation here and find more and more reasons to be worried.
Fed Live Blog
When Fed Chair Powell goes on stage tonight we of course stay on the line for live coverage of the interest rate decision and the following speech. Get prepared and follow the meeting with us, as well as getting the best takeaways here on our live blog!
Banking Crisis Liveblog Week 2 – Credit Suisse
The banking crisis continues and we’re covering it live here on StenoResearch.com! Bookmark this page and we’ll keep you posted throughout the week.
Steno Signals #40 – The banking crisis is likely to accelerate in coming weeks
The banking crisis will continue to rage until the Fed and the ECB accept the underlying reason for the deposit flight. Banks cannot cope with an über-inverted yield curve, why cuts are needed asap to contain the situation. It will likely get worse before it gets better.
5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil
This week really has been one for the books. On Friday, markets sounded the alarm as we experienced the second largest bank-failure in US history. Naturally, this behemoth event swept magazine covers and blew up our phones and inboxes leaving not much room for other things to watch – hence this peculiar edition of the recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’, where all five things relate to the banking frenzy.
Banking Crisis LIVEBLOG
Live coverage of the SVB crisis! We give you our live updates over the coming days!
Steno Signals #39 – Time to figure out who’s naked
Silicon Valley Bank is nothing but a symptom of years of excess money growth and it is now time to figure out who else is swimming naked. Money growth is negative, and idiots only survive in times of excess liquidity.
Steno Editorial: Is China your only feasible savior in 2023?
China is rebounding from a Lehman like credit event in 2022, which makes Chinese assets the cheapest on earth. Buying Chinese assets or assets outside of China with a link to China may prove to be your portfolio liberator in an otherwise tricky road ahead in 2023.
Steno Signals #38: Is this good or bad inflation?
There are undoubtedly signs of inflation pressures resurfacing in leading indicators, but remember that activity leads inflation. If inflation returns (from a momentum perspective), it is because activity has picked up markedly ahead of it. That is not bad news.
Steno Signals #37: Revisiting the macro regime indicators considering recent developments
February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.
Steno Signals #36 – Why 50% of the current rebound is manufactured in a spreadsheet
We experience seasonal adjustments to an extent NEVER seen in time series history for CPI, Retail Sales and ISM numbers in January. Are we amidst a spreadsheet rebound or an actual economic rebound? We lean towards the former. Here is why…
Steno Signals #35 – Has global liquidity bottomed already?
We have been spending countless hours discussing the liquidity outlook in the US, but developments elsewhere are equally as interesting. JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Position accordingly?
Steno Signals #34 – From a recession to a soft landing to a raging boom in just one week
Economic data is currently all over the place, but the bottom-line is clear. The recession is NOT here, and judging from our probability models it may take another while (at least until Q3). This is in sharp contrast to sentiment entering 2023 and not least positioning.
Steno Signals #33: The USD liquidity cushion is alive and well
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
Steno Signals #32 – When will QT end? Introducing “The Waller Rule”
Waller from the FOMC has hinted when the QT process ends. The current debt ceiling stand-off is likely to prolong QT in this Waller framework, while the terminal value of USD reserves remains the same.
Steno Signals #31 – The recession that EVERYONE agrees upon
Everyone agrees that a recession will hit this year, but will the Chinese reopening wreak havoc with the very uniform positioning across assets? Our flagship editorial Steno Signals is out every Sunday at 14 CET / 08 ET
Steno Signals #30 – Recession time as a Chinese reopening is not bullish
The ECB still lags European inflation by several months, while a Chinese reopening is not necessarily bullish for oil. Find out why as we reveal our new service!