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Steno Signals

Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.

Steno Signals #200 – The Liquidity Boom That Nobody Expects

Steno Signals #200 – The Liquidity Boom That Nobody Expects

While markets broadly agree that some sort of re-acceleration in inflation will happen over the summer, the ongoing liquidity boom—driven by the fiscal deficit and private credit creation—has gone under the radar, and it will likely lead to new cycle highs in risk assets sooner rather than later.

Steno Signals #200 – The Liquidity Boom That Nobody Expects

Steno Signals #199 – “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” Is USD-Negative

The situation in Ukraine and Russia demands attention, and it’s likely that Trump will need to shake things up to force a resolution. This may include imposing draconian measures on Russia. However, don’t be misled by these risks—a weak USD is set to drive a major macro comeback.

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What We Told Hedge Funds: What If the Jay-Man Gets the Axe?

What We Told Hedge Funds: What If the Jay-Man Gets the Axe?

We’ve been all over the short USD trade this year, but the full scope of potential debasement still feels elusive. Trump is now openly floating the idea of firing the Fed Chair, while Waller seems to be holding his job interviews in public. Position accordingly.

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The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding

The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding

Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.

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Week at a Glance – Is Waller the next Fed chair?

Week at a Glance – Hard Data Is Looking Incredibly Solid Into Very Soft Expectations

The slowdown in U.S. growth has so far been fairly isolated to trade and services data, which is why soft data has been weak while hard data hasn’t budged. When looking at domestic activity, the U.S. economy is still doing fine—for now. But is that something to cheer for?

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Week at a Glance – Is Waller the next Fed chair?

Week at a Glance – Rubbing salt in the wound?

With Liberation day approaching, Trump is in the middle of imposing growth-harming tariffs in an economy that is already cooling, leaving nowhere to hide at the moment. Will this week be any different, or will economic data continue to roll over? We are unfortunately not quite there yet..

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Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(y)’s is bad in the Fiat

Steno Signals #190 – Is Europe and China still the havens in macro? Not so fast..

Europe and China have so far been the safe havens in macro, but we are seeing signs that the light is starting to shut here as well, which begs the question if you can even hide from the slowdown in growth by now? As per usual, we lay out our approach and trade recommendations here.

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Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(y)’s is bad in the Fiat

Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

“How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” is a clear hint of the current sentiment. Could the USD peak already today, and where is the money to be found in this environment? Trade suggestions for this week are attached!

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Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(y)’s is bad in the Fiat

Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)

What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, it seems we’re still early in the business cycle—and things are accelerating once again.

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Week at a Glance – Is Waller the next Fed chair?

Week at a Glance – A hot inflation report is the last thing markets need

Reflation is roaring across global economies, and higher inflation on a trend basis is the last thing markets need – but it might be what they get. While that’s not overly bearish for risk assets in the medium term, it might be the final nail in the coffin for equities short-term.

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