It’s been another of those macro weeks that makes you 10 years older in a matter of days. We look at the timeliest indicators of the deposit flight crisis and assess how to deal with it.

Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.
It’s been another of those macro weeks that makes you 10 years older in a matter of days. We look at the timeliest indicators of the deposit flight crisis and assess how to deal with it.
When Fed Chair Powell goes on stage tonight we of course stay on the line for live coverage of the interest rate decision and the following speech. Get prepared and follow the meeting with us, as well as getting the best takeaways here on our live blog!
The banking crisis continues and we’re covering it live here on StenoResearch.com! Bookmark this page and we’ll keep you posted throughout the week.
The banking crisis will continue to rage until the Fed and the ECB accept the underlying reason for the deposit flight. Banks cannot cope with an über-inverted yield curve, why cuts are needed asap to contain the situation. It will likely get worse before it gets better.
This week really has been one for the books. On Friday, markets sounded the alarm as we experienced the second largest bank-failure in US history. Naturally, this behemoth event swept magazine covers and blew up our phones and inboxes leaving not much room for other things to watch – hence this peculiar edition of the recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’, where all five things relate to the banking frenzy.
Live coverage of the SVB crisis! We give you our live updates over the coming days!
Silicon Valley Bank is nothing but a symptom of years of excess money growth and it is now time to figure out who else is swimming naked. Money growth is negative, and idiots only survive in times of excess liquidity.
China is rebounding from a Lehman like credit event in 2022, which makes Chinese assets the cheapest on earth. Buying Chinese assets or assets outside of China with a link to China may prove to be your portfolio liberator in an otherwise tricky road ahead in 2023.
There are undoubtedly signs of inflation pressures resurfacing in leading indicators, but remember that activity leads inflation. If inflation returns (from a momentum perspective), it is because activity has picked up markedly ahead of it. That is not bad news.
February did not play out fully as expected by our Macro regime indicator. We will assess why in the weekly editorial and update projections for March.
We experience seasonal adjustments to an extent NEVER seen in time series history for CPI, Retail Sales and ISM numbers in January. Are we amidst a spreadsheet rebound or an actual economic rebound? We lean towards the former. Here is why…
We have been spending countless hours discussing the liquidity outlook in the US, but developments elsewhere are equally as interesting. JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Position accordingly?
Economic data is currently all over the place, but the bottom-line is clear. The recession is NOT here, and judging from our probability models it may take another while (at least until Q3). This is in sharp contrast to sentiment entering 2023 and not least positioning.
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
Waller from the FOMC has hinted when the QT process ends. The current debt ceiling stand-off is likely to prolong QT in this Waller framework, while the terminal value of USD reserves remains the same.
Everyone agrees that a recession will hit this year, but will the Chinese reopening wreak havoc with the very uniform positioning across assets? Our flagship editorial Steno Signals is out every Sunday at 14 CET / 08 ET
The ECB still lags European inflation by several months, while a Chinese reopening is not necessarily bullish for oil. Find out why as we reveal our new service!
Is the EUR swap market prepared for what’s coming in 2023? We find that the market is yet to understand how hawkish Lagarde intends on being in Q1/Q2. Here is what our models tell us…
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.
Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.
Is it really a possible scenario that the Fed will do stealth-QE by summer 2023? And are equities still a sell based on USD liquidity plumbing? Get the answers here!
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
Given the rumors surrounding the Chinese reopening story we thought that we would do a deep dive into the China story and look at what is moving. Can we even expect to see a reopening?
The REAL world is back. China ponders reopening, while Meta struggles. The stuff that got us into this bubble, will likely not lead us out of this bubble. Buy Industrials vs. Tech.
In my base-case, we are going to see a double-top inflation picture, but I sincerely hope that we don’t resummon our inner financial illiterates, if rates drop towards 0% due to temporary disinflation
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European energy supplies are MUCH better than feared!
Is BoE the patient zero in the fight against bond vigilantes? More panic could be upcoming from other central banks soon as real rates are shooting for the stars
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.
A historic gas sabotage and FX crisis. We have enough to look at in Europe this week. Here is my take on how to seek shelter from the current crisis. Enjoy!