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Steno Signals

Steno Signals is our weekly editorial on everything macro. The byline of the editorial is Andreas Steno Larsen, former chief strategist at Nordea Bank and CEO of Steno Research.

Steno Research Live Portfolio

Steno Research Live Portfolio

We have launched our live portfolio monitor, which allows you to track our performance and our positions in real-time. The live feed will be available for premium subscribers only, while we will deliver occasional updates on the composition for basic subscribers as well. 

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Steno Signals #49 – Everything related to the deposit crisis keeps worsening beneath the hood

Steno Signals #49 – Everything related to the deposit crisis keeps worsening beneath the hood

Given the lack of an imminent economic crash risk, bond bears have been back in the driver’s seat. No news is bond bearish news, which in turn is likely to exacerbate the already worsening root cause of the deposit crisis. We are on high alert for the ramifications of the price action in the USD.

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Steno Signals #48 – Markets vastly underestimate the impact on USD funding from the debt ceiling

Steno Signals #48 – Markets vastly underestimate the impact on USD funding from the debt ceiling

The USD debt ceiling is a returning topic and it’s typically not overly important for markets, but this time is likely to be different. The repercussions for USD funding markets may be material and in sharp contrast to consensus expectations the USD may stage the biggest comeback since Lazarus.

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Fed/ECB Liveblog

Fed/ECB Liveblog

All eyes are on the Fed and ECB in the coming days! We have got you covered with our LIVEBLOG throughout Wednesday and Thursday.

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Steno Signals #46 – Liquidity is drying up fast! Sell in May and go away?

Steno Signals #46 – Liquidity is drying up fast! Sell in May and go away?

We have been bullish on equities through the year but now see increasing signs warranting a defensive shift in positioning. Liquidity is drying up both in Europe and the US, and BoJ has effectively made further liquidity adding interventions unnecessary. China may be the only place on earth with positive liquidity trends.

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Fed Live Blog

Fed Live Blog

When Fed Chair Powell goes on stage tonight we of course stay on the line for live coverage of the interest rate decision and the following speech. Get prepared and follow the meeting with us, as well as getting the best takeaways here on our live blog!

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5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil

5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil

This week really has been one for the books. On Friday, markets sounded the alarm as we experienced the second largest bank-failure in US history. Naturally, this behemoth event swept magazine covers and blew up our phones and inboxes leaving not much room for other things to watch – hence this peculiar edition of the recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’, where all five things relate to the banking frenzy.

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Steno Signals #38: Is this good or bad inflation?

Steno Signals #38: Is this good or bad inflation?

There are undoubtedly signs of inflation pressures resurfacing in leading indicators, but remember that activity leads inflation. If inflation returns (from a momentum perspective), it is because activity has picked up markedly ahead of it. That is not bad news.

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Steno Signals #34 – From a recession to a soft landing to a raging boom in just one week

Steno Signals #34 – From a recession to a soft landing to a raging boom in just one week

Economic data is currently all over the place, but the bottom-line is clear. The recession is NOT here, and judging from our probability models it may take another while (at least until Q3). This is in sharp contrast to sentiment entering 2023 and not least positioning.

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