EM Watch: China was WEAKENING even before the decline in Western demand
2024-09-06
While we are waiting for Godot and his assessment of Payrolls, we take a look at Chinese momentum in the context of declining demand in the West. Are the wheels ...The Week At A Glance: No one trusts the July job report, but should they?
2024-09-02
This week’s job report will likely decide whether 25 or 50 bp is most likely in September.. Is the crowd of wall street economists getting too worried or too upbeat? ...Steno Signals #115 – The head-fake business cycle strikes again
2024-09-01
The manufacturing rebound in H1 2024 was another head-fake, and we were correct in predicting that everyone would call off the recession. Now, the market is likely going to “reprice” ...
What does the road to peace in Ukraine look like?
2024-09-04What is the path to peace in Ukraine and what might Zelenskyy’s “plan to end the war” entail? To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of ...Energy Cable/Great Game: OPEC, things could get ugly!
2024-09-03Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics. This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as ...Great Game – What we know about Harris’ economic plan after DNC
2024-08-27What the U.S lacks in Eurovision, they make up for during the Democratic National Convention. But in the midst of the media-mayhem, were we robbed of economic policy? To read the ...
Portfolio Watch – This NFP will allow September seasonality to unfold.
2024-09-06With the lukewarm NFP report out, we share our portfolio watch, update you on last week’s allocations, and offer some thoughts on where assets may be heading next! To read the ...Positioning Watch – Markets are begging for a rebound in growth
2024-09-04Markets have jumped into the growth rebound trades with both legs after they found out the NFP report was likely a bit better than what it showed at first glance. ...Portfolio Watch: Preparing for a nasty September due to liquidity
2024-08-30Two overwhelming themes are at the top of our watchlist for September: fading USD liquidity and a sudden halt in Chinese activity. Here’s how we plan to address them. To read ...
Something for your Espresso: NFP to set the mood for September
2024-09-06Ahead of the crucial NFP report we come with our suggestions for the figure and how markets will react in different scenarios, preparing you for how to trade the event. To ...Something for your Espresso: How bad is the employment situation?
2024-09-05Thoughts on today ISM’s service report and crude oil along with updates from our models. The risk environment remains very fragile and we continue to like net short positions in ...Something for your Espresso: What do our models say after yesterday’s bloodbath?
2024-09-04The growth scare is spreading as China has come to a sudden stop. Is the commodity land-slide over? To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial ...
EM Watch: 5 Charts on the Nosediving Chinese Indicators!
2024-08-28The Chinese momentum has come to a sudden halt, and we think it is related to the front-loading of imports due to tariff fears. Could China become the victim of ...EM Watch: Why China is trying to wreak havoc on your Gold longs
2024-08-01The Fed looks likely to commence a cutting cycle in September, but can we use the typical cutting cycle playbook in EM- fixed income and Commodities? China is (potentially) wreaking ...EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space
2024-07-24The current sell-off is driven by position squaring not least in USDJPY. The turning tide on USDJPY will impact the EM space largely and also knock-out a few EM darlings ...
Crypto Moves #42 – Where Do We Go From Here?
2024-09-06We turned bearish on Monday due to a worsening economic outlook, characterized by weaker growth and tightening liquidity in September. While the month will be challenging, it’s premature to declare ...Crypto Crisp: Macro Is Not Your Friend
2024-09-02In August, we anticipated a crypto market recovery. While this was somewhat accurate, current signs suggest a downturn or, at best, sideways action in September due to challenging macroeconomic conditions, ...Crypto Moves #41 – The Two Worthy Cash Cows in DeFi
2024-08-30Decentralized finance is poised for a resurgence in interest, but this alone will not drive substantial price increases for DeFi-focused cryptocurrencies. To achieve significant price appreciation, these cryptocurrencies need to ...
