Steno Signals #197 – The Mood(y)’s is bad in the Fiat
2025-05-19After the third major rating house downgraded the US on Friday, the long end of the yield curve is reaching into uncharted territory. The mood is accordingly weak in the ...Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?
2025-05-12With all reciprocal tariffs now “paused” at lower levels, the next major battleground is inflation. Will inflation move lower, and will that allow for a further easing of financial conditions? ...Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?
2025-05-05Large parts of the Mar’o’Lago Accord are actually progressing according to plan, despite poor implementation and widespread global outrage. China is now buying U.S. Treasuries due to the weaker dollar—precisely ...
The Drill – When the Facts Change, So Do We
2025-05-14The bearish commodity stance is running on fumes, as the key drivers—trade barriers, a short-term USD repricing, and slowing growth—are all beginning to reverse. We’re likely staring into multiple trend ...The Drill – The Gold(en) Era Continues!
2025-05-07Growth remains tilted to the downside in our global model framework, signaling that we’re not yet out of the woods in terms of weaker commodity prices. Gold stands out as ...The Drill – From Weak Oil to Weak Everything in Commodities in the Coming Weeks
2025-04-30While US growth is on the verge of tipping over, most commodities (ex oil) used as inputs in production haven’t flinched. We expect all commodities to swiftly realign with ...
What We Told Hedge Funds: Bye Bye 2025, Hello 2021
2025-05-16Risk assets are ripping as the macro backdrop echoes 2021: growth is back, inflation is soft, and liquidity is flowing. With the trade war U-turn and fiscal brakes off, we’re ...What We Told Hedge Funds: The Hated Equity Rally Has More Legs to Go!
2025-05-09No matter where you turn, strategists and analysts are calling the rally in risk assets overdone, arguing that the damage to the economy is already baked in. But as we’ve ...What We Told Hedge Funds: When Did We Remove April from the Market Calendar?
2025-05-02Risk assets are partying like April didn’t happen, which begs the question: are markets slowly but surely starting to shrug off the macro risks associated with the US-China trade war? ...
Week at a Glance – Markets Ride the Goldilocks Drift While Japan Wobbles
2025-05-20With no major U.S. data releases this week, markets remain comfortably parked in Goldilocks mode—buoyed by easing financial conditions and hopes of a global rebound. But Japan’s disastrous bond auction ...Something for Your Espresso – Is 2021 Back in the Cards?
2025-05-16The economy is quietly reaccelerating beneath the surface—tariff impacts delayed, credit creation strong, and inflation expectations under control. With trade tensions easing and sentiment improving, the conditions are lining up ...Something for Your Espresso – Markets Are Still in Weakness Mode
2025-05-15While risk assets have largely recovered from the Liberation Day slump, cyclical asset ratios are still pointing to ISM manufacturing levels around 45. Will markets be caught off guard if ...
China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?
2025-01-09We have refrained from calling a rebound in inflation as China was weakening. What if that’s no longer the base case? To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day ...China/Germany Flash Watch: How will China navigate the Trump victory?
2024-11-06The Trump trade is roaring in financial markets, but how will China navigate the turbulence? Should we expect a major fiscal announcement on Friday, or perhaps a conciliatory approach to ...China Watch: This is NOT stimulus. It’s a debt swap!
2024-10-30The stimulus being prepared by the NPC for announcement next week seems more like the work of a marketing agency than an economic council. While the numbers are substantial, it’s ...
Crypto Watch: Crypto’s Summer Rally Has Until August — Then It Gets Complicated
2025-05-15Forget China — this rally is powered by quiet credit expansion in the West and a softening dollar. Broad money is doing just enough to keep the wind at crypto’s ...Crypto Watch – Road to 135K: Bitcoin Breakout in Motion
2025-05-08Bitcoin just cleared its last major technical hurdle, signaling that the bearish momentum is finally broken. With macro, liquidity, and positioning all turning supportive, this could be the setup for ...Crypto Watch: Treasury Buybacks, BoJ Wobbles, and Bitcoin’s Signal
2025-05-01Treasury buybacks, soft data, and global easing are pushing yields down and breathing life into risk assets — with Bitcoin leading the charge. To read the full article, sign up for ...