After the third major rating house downgraded the US on Friday, the long end of the yield curve is reaching into uncharted territory. The mood is accordingly weak in the ...

With all reciprocal tariffs now “paused” at lower levels, the next major battleground is inflation. Will inflation move lower, and will that allow for a further easing of financial conditions? ...

Large parts of the Mar’o’Lago Accord are actually progressing according to plan, despite poor implementation and widespread global outrage. China is now buying U.S. Treasuries due to the weaker dollar—precisely ...

The bearish commodity stance is running on fumes, as the key drivers—trade barriers, a short-term USD repricing, and slowing growth—are all beginning to reverse. We’re likely staring into multiple trend ...

Growth remains tilted to the downside in our global model framework, signaling that we’re not yet out of the woods in terms of weaker commodity prices. Gold stands out as ...

While US growth is on the verge of tipping over, most commodities (ex oil) used as inputs in production haven’t flinched. We expect all commodities to swiftly realign with ...

Risk assets are ripping as the macro backdrop echoes 2021: growth is back, inflation is soft, and liquidity is flowing. With the trade war U-turn and fiscal brakes off, we’re ...

No matter where you turn, strategists and analysts are calling the rally in risk assets overdone, arguing that the damage to the economy is already baked in. But as we’ve ...

Risk assets are partying like April didn’t happen, which begs the question: are markets slowly but surely starting to shrug off the macro risks associated with the US-China trade war? ...

With no major U.S. data releases this week, markets remain comfortably parked in Goldilocks mode—buoyed by easing financial conditions and hopes of a global rebound. But Japan’s disastrous bond auction ...

The economy is quietly reaccelerating beneath the surface—tariff impacts delayed, credit creation strong, and inflation expectations under control. With trade tensions easing and sentiment improving, the conditions are lining up ...

While risk assets have largely recovered from the Liberation Day slump, cyclical asset ratios are still pointing to ISM manufacturing levels around 45. Will markets be caught off guard if ...

We have refrained from calling a rebound in inflation as China was weakening. What if that’s no longer the base case? To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day ...

Forget China — this rally is powered by quiet credit expansion in the West and a softening dollar. Broad money is doing just enough to keep the wind at crypto’s ...

Bitcoin just cleared its last major technical hurdle, signaling that the bearish momentum is finally broken. With macro, liquidity, and positioning all turning supportive, this could be the setup for ...

Treasury buybacks, soft data, and global easing are pushing yields down and breathing life into risk assets — with Bitcoin leading the charge. To read the full article, sign up for ...