Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)
2025-01-19
What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, ...Growth Watch: Philly Fed data through the roof! Here is how to trade it!
2025-01-16
On the back of an uber-bullish Philly Fed Manufacturing print, we take a look at the sensitivities of assets to a boom in the manufacturing economy. To read the full article, ...Week at a Glance – A hot inflation report is the last thing markets need
2025-01-13
Reflation is roaring across global economies, and higher inflation on a trend basis is the last thing markets need – but it might be what they get. While that’s not ...
The Drill: Strap in for Trump
2025-01-21We look at what has happened and what to expect from Trump during his first week in the Oval Office and how we would position. To read the full article, ...The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?
2025-01-14We see pockets of overbought conditions in energy markets ahead of Trump’s inauguration week. The market appears to have accepted Trump’s ‘bluff’ as the base case for the coming week, ...The drill: It’s an omnishambles in the tariff talks
2025-01-07Trump’s tariffs talks have now been called a bluff but for how long? Get your popcorn out and have your broker on speed dial because the next year will be ...
Positioning Watch – Cutting Out the Trump Noise: Hedge Funds Are Still Betting on Higher Rates!
2025-01-23Everything at the moment seems to revolve around Trump and his policies. How have markets been positioned heading into inauguration week, and is it possible to cut through the noise? To ...Spending Watch – Where is the Consumer Heading From Here?
2025-01-20The consumption part of the economy is probably THE macro variable to watch in 2025. We provide a detailed overview of the state of the consumer across the US, Eurozone ...Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!
2025-01-17Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, ...
Something for your Espresso – Trump will allow 2021 to unfold again!
2025-01-24Trump is scaling back on China tariffs, and it seems obvious now that he is working on some sort of tech deal between China and the US, which leaves his ...Something for Your Espresso: Liquidity is increasing everywhere – just not within central banks
2025-01-23Liquidity is flowing beyond central banks, creating a clear reflationary signal and fueling risk appetite. Cutting through the noise, the simultaneous rise in inflation, growth, and liquidity points to a ...Something For Your Espresso: Is Ballooning Debt Just Another ‘Hoax’ Like Climate Change for Trump?
2025-01-22Similarly to launching his meme coin, Trump’s focus remains fixated on short-term wins at the expense of long-term stability. Why should ballooning debt be any different when immediate gratification is ...
China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?
2025-01-09We have refrained from calling a rebound in inflation as China was weakening. What if that’s no longer the base case? To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day ...China/Germany Flash Watch: How will China navigate the Trump victory?
2024-11-06The Trump trade is roaring in financial markets, but how will China navigate the turbulence? Should we expect a major fiscal announcement on Friday, or perhaps a conciliatory approach to ...China Watch: This is NOT stimulus. It’s a debt swap!
2024-10-30The stimulus being prepared by the NPC for announcement next week seems more like the work of a marketing agency than an economic council. While the numbers are substantial, it’s ...
Crypto Moves #60 – What’s Actually Going On in Ethereum-land?
2025-01-24The Ethereum community has experienced significant turmoil in recent weeks, driven largely by widespread dissatisfaction with the Ethereum Foundation, which is seen as overly inactive and lacking ambition. However, the ...Crypto Crisp: What Now, President Trump?
2025-01-21Donald Trump has officially returned as President of the United States. Although neither he nor his administration has made any statements about digital assets or issued any executive orders concerning ...Crypto Moves #59 – Are These the Two Best Beta Plays for Ethereum and Solana?
2025-01-17We anticipate strong performance from both Ethereum and Solana in 2025. Alongside this, we have identified two beta plays within their respective ecosystems that we also expect to perform exceptionally ...
