5 Things We Watch – SOFR Probabilities, USDJPY, CNY Devaluation, IFO & Eurozone electricity
2024-04-24Equities are back to winning ways, while USD rates traders agree on 0 cuts this year being a probable scenario. Meanwhile, China is likely preparing for a devaluation of the ...The week at a glance: Time for the BoJ to step up, while soft PCE numbers may fool some..
2024-04-22Focus on European PMIs, the Bank of Japan meeting and PCE numbers this week! Our short and sweet take is found here! To read the full article, sign up for ...Steno Signals #96 – A major devaluation of the CNY could be imminent
2024-04-21China is preparing for something major. That seems increasingly obvious judging from the stockpiling of important resources. Could it be that they are preparing a major one-off devaluation of the ...
Great Game: Despite New Aid, Ukraine will lose within 12 months. Plan Accordingly!
2024-04-23The US Congress has passed major new aid for Ukraine, but it might be to late. Here’s our assessment and thoughts on how you can prepare for when Ukraine loses To ...Iran’s attack – Large in Size, Harmless in Effect. What’s next?
2024-04-16Undertanding Iran’s strike and what might come next – plus some potential solutions for the Red Sea crisis. To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of ...Iran/Israel debrief: A very soft response from Iran – No risk of wider war
2024-04-14Read our analysis before panicking and be ready for markets to open on Monday
Trade Alert: Buying the dip
2024-04-23We see reasons to bet on a reversion of the latest weakness across risk assets and have decided to buy the dip. To read the full article, sign up ...Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now
2024-04-23Option-implied probabilities derived from DEC2024 SOFR options show interesting dynamics in Fixed Income sentiment, where rates traders now almost see 0 cuts or even hikes as the most favored outcome ...Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities
2024-04-22The rise in energy prices, the USD wreckingball and the higher-for-longer narrative has finally reached equities, which seems to be taking a bit of a breather here. We take a ...
Something For Your Espresso: The higher for longer ghost is crawling back..
2024-04-24Equities are back on track amidst rates traders agreeing on 0 Fed cuts being increasingly more likely. Our short and sweet morning post here. To read the full article, sign up ...Something for your espresso: Equities to reverse the trend?
2024-04-23Busy week in macro spiced up by reporting season. Will earnings provide some awaited relief for equities. We tend to think so. To read the full article, sign up for ...Something for your Espresso: Waiting for the dust to settle..
2024-04-22The embedded value in risk assets is improving, but the USD wrecking ball will continue into this week. The question is whether we have imminent action ahead from the BoJ/MoF ...
EM Gold Rush: The pressure valve amid Asian FX debasement risks?
2024-04-17Asian FX weakness is back, and the USD/Gold correlation has turned positive. This begs the question: How does it rhyme with the continued surge higher in gold, and has something ...EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!
2024-04-10The strategic shift from Real Estate to Green-tech manufacturing in China is very evident and it will likely impact Europe to a much larger extent than the US. Counterintuitively, it ...Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?
2024-04-03Korea has, by first-hand experience, been a sell-side favorite, and the Kospi has been on a roll recently. Some leading cyclical indicators have started to turn however, and the question ...
Crypto Crisp: Up, Not Down
2024-04-22We anticipate the market will soon acknowledge the decreasing tensions between Israel and Iran, coupled with an improvement in US liquidity as tax season wraps up. There are now more ...Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About
2024-04-18Bitcoin does not currently function as a safe haven. According to our quantitative model, it behaves more like a risk-on asset, similar to technology stocks. However, there is potential for ...Crypto Crisp: Hong Kong Rhymes With Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
2024-04-15Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions sent Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbling, but the crypto market quickly rebounded, arguably thanks to Hong Kong’s new ETF approvals and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Despite ...