EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space
2024-07-24The current sell-off is driven by position squaring not least in USDJPY. The turning tide on USDJPY will impact the EM space largely and also knock-out a few EM darlings ...The Week At Glance: A look at US Cycle indicators. You sure consensus is right?
2024-07-22Are US cycle indicators rebounding right, left and center in coming months, and will inflation expectations follow? It sure looks like it from our model package. Meanwhile, don’t expect the ...Steno Signals #109 – What if we are all wrong on liquidity, rates and commodities?
2024-07-21What if the Fed is wrong, we are wrong, and the consensus is wrong? Here’s a look at liquidity, rates, and commodities amidst a macro landscape with a very broad ...
Great Game – 5 Things I Expect from Kamalanomics
2024-07-23Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race. President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most predictable thing in a completely unpredictable race ...Great Game – Election Analysis for UK, France and Iran
2024-07-09We cover the three recent elections and what they mean for investors and geopolitics To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or ...Great Game – Biden in free-fall and a French Ménage à trois
2024-07-02With Biden nosediving in polls, France’s far right party is surging in the First round of legislative elections. What will this mean for markets? To read the full article, sign up ...
Portfolio Watch: Markets discarding Q2 data due to Dudley?
2024-07-26The market is hellbent on pricing in cuts, even when the data is hawkish. This is an interesting dynamic and the FOMC/BoJ meetings next week will be key to gauging ...Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure
2024-07-25All it took for markets to unwind their macro-divergence trades was Powell confirming the beginning of a new cycle by hinting at a September rate cut in advance, coupled with ...Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?
2024-07-25The very mechanical rate path setup of Norges Bank allows us to track the rate path live, and in sharp contrast to elsewhere, it looks like we are ripe for ...
Something for your Espresso: What recession? Is forward pricing ahead of itself again?
2024-07-26The US economy is not slowing down, and several central banks in the G10 are leaning towards hikes rather than cuts as we approach autumn. Is forward pricing in rates ...Something for your Espresso: The one on JPY, steepeners and position squaring
2024-07-25It seems like the JPY move has triggered a cross-asset position squaring, meaning you need to be aware of whether a trade is popular or not. Interestingly, the curve is ...Something for your Espresso: Here comes the JPY (and the sun)
2024-07-24The JPY is on the move ahead of the BoJ/FOMC policy meetings by month-end supported by rebalancing flows, softening real-rate spreads and a fading bid for debasement hedges. Will it ...
EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space
2024-07-24The current sell-off is driven by position squaring not least in USDJPY. The turning tide on USDJPY will impact the EM space largely and also knock-out a few EM darlings ...EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum
2024-07-18Exports of Copper from China are THROUGH THE ROOF, which is a strong hint that the local consumption is on the floor. The CCP plenum has not addressed the short-term ...EM Watch – No fiscal stimulus from China as long as export-business is thriving!
2024-07-10We don’t expect the third Chinese plenum to bring about newsworthy stimulus as the rebound in the export-sectors is rock-solid postponing the need for radical fiscal action. This leaves metals ...
Crypto Moves #36 – Give the Ethereum ETFs a Week, Then It Is Up Only
2024-07-25The Ethereum price has dipped slightly since the launch of its U.S.-based ETFs, primarily due to significant outflows from Grayscale. There is no reason to consider the ETFs a failure ...Crypto Crisp: We Roll
2024-07-22Now we roll. The crypto market, especially Bitcoin, has experienced substantial gains in recent weeks, but that is just the beginning. Many other positive factors are on the horizon. Additionally, ...Crypto Liquidity Watch: The Current Crypto Versus Tech Correlation Is a Must Watch
2024-07-18The technology equity sell-off of the most recent trading days feels reminiscent of the crypto sell-off in late June and early July. Can we explain the recent moves in high-beta ...