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Steno Signals #113 – Neither Inflation, Growth, Nor Liquidity is rising right now

Steno Signals #113 – Neither Inflation, Growth, Nor Liquidity is rising right now

We track the probability of rising growth, inflation, and liquidity momentum in real-time on a daily basis, and the developments since the start of July have been notably weak. This is the kind of setup needed to prompt central banks to restart their actions.

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Portfolio Watch: Cracks are appearing in the lagging cycle

Portfolio Watch: Cracks are appearing in the lagging cycle

Retail sales have once again alleviated immediate recession fears, but signs of cracks are appearing in sectors that typically lag the business cycle, including construction. Consumers remain concerned about the economic situation. Bonds are holding steady for now.

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Portfolio Watch: Cracks are appearing in the lagging cycle

Portfolio Watch: Be our guest to jump the great rotation bandwagon

The PPI serves as a friendly reminder of the cyclical dynamics brewing beneath the surface of the global economy, which contrasts with the current sentiment. We are not convinced of a major slowdown, but we obviously find insurance cuts more likely than a few weeks ago. Here is how to play it..

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Something for your Espresso: Inflation time!

Something for your Espresso: Gung ho or no?

The inflation report holds the potential to fuel the liquidity beta risk party further, and if we take clues from China, we ought to expect a soft(ish) report. The tide needs to turn on USD vs Asian FX to truly alter the picture.

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