Crypto Moves

The washout in crypto continues, but we are starting to see meaningful liquidity developments underneath the hood. Coupled with a weak USD, this will set the stage for a rally in risk assets.

So, the administration has simply re-labeled already seized Bitcoins, branding them as a “strategic reserve.” Nothing will be added, but there is a loophole for Howard Lutnick and the Trade Department to buy Bitcoin. Here’s why!

Donald Trump was out during the weekend stating that the US will now move towards a reserve of cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, and XRP. While the initial reaction was bullish as the space is now finally backed by a political system, what are the true intentions behind the tweet?

The crypto market has been hit by extreme fear over the last couple of days, with the equivalent “fear and greed index” dropping from neutral to extreme fear in just a week. Is it time to load up, or are you catching a falling knife?

The crypto community has been screaming for attention from both politicians and institutions, but the attention we have seen from politicians towards the crypto space has only made things worse. What will drive the next bull-run in the crypto-cycle aside from crypto-related fundamentals? A semi-dovish Fed and lower rates is likely the answer.

Alt-season may be suffering from a meme frenzy, but we remain confident that the business cycle will ultimately take over—even as figures like Dave Portnoy meme the hell out of it!

Last week was a whirlwind for the crypto market. While the impact may not yet be evident in digital asset prices, it is only a matter of time. U.S. President Trump’s call for a potential crypto stockpile, rather than a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, could pave the way for stronger performance among altcoins, some of which may emerge as future candidates for such a reserve.

Meanwhile, the DeepSeek news rattled the market, triggering a broad sell-off across risk-on assets, including crypto. However, we believe this reaction will be short-lived, especially for cryptocurrencies that are largely unaffected by the matter.

Donald Trump has officially returned as President of the United States. Although neither he nor his administration has made any statements about digital assets or issued any executive orders concerning this asset class yet—despite earlier speculation that this might happen today—there is absolutely no cause for concern. Over the weekend, Trump and his family doubled down on their commitment to cryptocurrency. It is only a matter of time before positive developments emerge from the Oval Office.

We anticipate strong performance from both Ethereum and Solana in 2025. Alongside this, we have identified two beta plays within their respective ecosystems that we also expect to perform exceptionally well during the year. Both tokens showcase robust revenue generation, ongoing technological innovation, and relatively low market capitalizations.

The crypto market’s downturn largely stems from two key concerns, both tied to developments in the United States. The first is the potential liquidation of a significant portion of seized Bitcoins by the U.S. government ahead of Trump’s inauguration. The second is the ongoing repricing driven by an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, with inflation once again taking center stage. While we do not view the first issue as a major concern, we believe the latter could further pressure the crypto market, likely worsening conditions before prices eventually return to green.

Altcoins, Liquidity, and the Business Cycle: Brace for the Q1 Squeeze

The Washington Post and President-elect Donald Trump seem to disagree on whether Trump will implement significant tariffs once he assumes office later this month. We side with the Washington Post. All that and more in the first Crypto Crisp of the year.

The year 2025 is set to be a defining moment for the crypto market, with the potential for remarkable positive developments. In this note, we present our detailed quantitative forecasts for 2025, including our price projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming year.

In our opinion, the market’s current fears are exaggerated and should be met with a sense of composure. Our perspective is to weather this wave of fear calmly while enjoying a pleasant and peaceful Christmas season.

Network effects and adoption are the most vital factors for the success of blockchains. These metrics are essential when evaluating whether a blockchain has achieved a meaningful network effect.

The crypto market continues to show strong bullish momentum, but inflation—a well-known adversary for digital assets—has unexpectedly returned to the spotlight. This is the current state of affairs.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is forming a crypto team for his administration, which looks highly favorable for the crypto industry. On another note, the recent U.S. jobs report delivered extremely ideal conditions for digital assets. Meanwhile, smaller Bitcoin holders are showing a trend of selling, while the largest whale, MicroStrategy, continues to accumulate bitcoins.

Bitcoin recently broke through the highly significant psychological level of $100,000 but has since dipped below it. The pressing question now is whether Bitcoin will close above $100,000 on New Year’s Eve. Here, we examine the key charts that will determine the answer—and we believe the answer is yes.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has begun to shine again, not only through its price growth but also through crucial metrics that are fueling this resurgence.

While much of the crypto world is focused on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, many are overlooking the significant positive strides introduced by the European Union’s MiCA regulatory framework, set for full implementation on December 30. This framework aims to protect investors while making the crypto market more accessible and appealing, particularly to non-crypto-native retail and institutional investors.

We are witnessing a growing trend of crypto-friendly regulatory environments, with the UK now aligning itself alongside the U.S. and Europe. While this regulatory progress is more of a longer term development, in the very near term, market conditions suggest we are overbought.

The 4-year cycle for Bitcoin strikes again, just as it has three times before. It simply appears that the market is stupid, unable to recognize the supply shock caused by Bitcoin halvings from miles away. Drawing on the outcomes of the previous three halvings, we look forward to what the medium term may bring for Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy continues its aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions, while the market’s speculative nature shows no signs of abating.

Altcoin season in this bull market is approaching fast. Trump’s U.S. presidential victory is undoubtedly more favorable for altcoins than for Bitcoin, and they stand to gain even more from declining interest rates. We are already seeing the effects, with Ethereum’s transactional revenue surging in recent days. Following Trump’s win, we estimate a 50% chance that a new ETF will launch in the U.S. in 2025, with Solana being the most likely candidate.

Last week, Trump’s reelection as U.S. President ignited a significant rally in digital assets, marking one of the most impactful days in crypto history. While Bitcoin soared to nearly $85,000, we remain cautious about the speculative surge fairly driven by derivatives. The uptrend is risky to bet against, but sharp corrections may still lie ahead.

The U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a toss-up. The upside? A Donald Trump win tomorrow would spark a near-term surge in crypto prices. The downside? We are more likely looking at a Kamala Harris administration over the next four years, which would be far less supportive of the crypto industry.

The macroeconomic environment is turning strongly positive for crypto, with liquidity on the rise and interest rates trending downward. Now, the last piece is a Trump victory on Tuesday—without it, the crypto markets could get nasty.