The systemic risks of crypto were substantially mitigated last week as Binance settled various charges with multiple US agencies. Despite this clearly positive news, the crypto market did not react, leading us to remain pessimistic in the short term until we observe renewed inflow and interest in crypto. Tether remains the largest risk to crypto.
In this weekly analysis series, Mads Eberhardt, a former Cryptocurrency Analyst at Saxo Bank and trader at Bitcoin Suisse, unveils the complex world of crypto assets. With 8 years of hands-on experience in crypto, Mads delves deep into the heartbeat of the industry, offering a nuanced understanding that goes beyond the surface.
In “Crypto Moves”, you are invited to tap into our extensive knowledge of crypto and fearlessly explore opinions that others might shy away from. While you may not agree with everything, we guarantee that your horizon will broaden.
We align with the market consensus that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US is imminent. Given this widespread belief, we contend that this ETF might already be priced in, particularly considering the risk of Grayscale releasing billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoins into the market. Our assessment leans towards anticipating more downward selling pressure than the opposite, contrasting with the prevailing market sentiment.
There have been three Bitcoin halvings in total, and each time, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high within a maximum of 1.5 years. Observing many of the same factors present in the three prior halvings, we argue that history is likely to repeat itself after the fourth halving in April 2024.
We launch our research offering on the crypto market amidst little interest from non-crypto advocates. We argue that this is historically the best time to add exposure to crypto.