Crypto Moves

Middle East tensions fade, household spending holds, and equities push to highs. Don’t fight the drift—reflation risk is back on the table.

Middle East tensions may be stirring fear, but crypto isn’t flinching. With altcoin momentum building, institutional tailwinds gathering, and sentiment still neutral, this looks more like a setup than a setback. Don’t overthink it—just buy the dip.

While equities and bonds wrestle with volatility and policy noise, crypto is quietly setting up for a rotation. Beneath the surface, macro resilience, expanding credit, and receding liquidity stress are realigning the playing field. With Bitcoin consolidating, the path is opening for altcoins to take the lead into summer.

As sentiment hits extremes and macro tailwinds fade, the burden of this rally rests on shrinking shoulders.

Bitcoin shows exhaustion, Ethereum flirts with breakout, and Japan hints at yield relief. With tariffs fading and fiscal heat rising, the stage may be set for a summer altcoin surge.

As confidence cracks in the bond market and policymakers abandon fiscal restraint, the mother of all debasement trades is gathering steam. Hedge funds are waking up to a world where trust—not spreadsheets—defines value.

Forget China — this rally is powered by quiet credit expansion in the West and a softening dollar. Broad money is doing just enough to keep the wind at crypto’s back, but come August, the tide could turn fast.

Bitcoin just cleared its last major technical hurdle, signaling that the bearish momentum is finally broken. With macro, liquidity, and positioning all turning supportive, this could be the setup for a new leg higher—led by China’s stimulus and Europe’s rate cuts.

Treasury buybacks, soft data, and global easing are pushing yields down and breathing life into risk assets — with Bitcoin leading the charge.

The earlier decoupling from risk assets, the long-awaited decline in bond yields, easing liquidity conditions, and efforts to stabilize the sell-off in long-end bonds all point toward a potential bottom in crypto. Here’s why.

Trump’s latest U-turn is arguably the best worst-case scenario for risk assets. Why? Because up until yesterday’s announcement, the most likely path forward involved a forced and reactive Fed intervention—stepping in to provide emergency liquidity in a worst-case scenario where funding markets completely broke down.

Liquidity Floor: The Bond Put Is Quietly Propping Up Crypto

The washout in crypto continues, but we are starting to see meaningful liquidity developments underneath the hood. Coupled with a weak USD, this will set the stage for a rally in risk assets.

So, the administration has simply re-labeled already seized Bitcoins, branding them as a “strategic reserve.” Nothing will be added, but there is a loophole for Howard Lutnick and the Trade Department to buy Bitcoin. Here’s why!

Donald Trump was out during the weekend stating that the US will now move towards a reserve of cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, and XRP. While the initial reaction was bullish as the space is now finally backed by a political system, what are the true intentions behind the tweet?

The crypto market has been hit by extreme fear over the last couple of days, with the equivalent “fear and greed index” dropping from neutral to extreme fear in just a week. Is it time to load up, or are you catching a falling knife?

The crypto community has been screaming for attention from both politicians and institutions, but the attention we have seen from politicians towards the crypto space has only made things worse. What will drive the next bull-run in the crypto-cycle aside from crypto-related fundamentals? A semi-dovish Fed and lower rates is likely the answer.

Alt-season may be suffering from a meme frenzy, but we remain confident that the business cycle will ultimately take over—even as figures like Dave Portnoy meme the hell out of it!

Last week was a whirlwind for the crypto market. While the impact may not yet be evident in digital asset prices, it is only a matter of time. U.S. President Trump’s call for a potential crypto stockpile, rather than a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, could pave the way for stronger performance among altcoins, some of which may emerge as future candidates for such a reserve.

Meanwhile, the DeepSeek news rattled the market, triggering a broad sell-off across risk-on assets, including crypto. However, we believe this reaction will be short-lived, especially for cryptocurrencies that are largely unaffected by the matter.

Donald Trump has officially returned as President of the United States. Although neither he nor his administration has made any statements about digital assets or issued any executive orders concerning this asset class yet—despite earlier speculation that this might happen today—there is absolutely no cause for concern. Over the weekend, Trump and his family doubled down on their commitment to cryptocurrency. It is only a matter of time before positive developments emerge from the Oval Office.

We anticipate strong performance from both Ethereum and Solana in 2025. Alongside this, we have identified two beta plays within their respective ecosystems that we also expect to perform exceptionally well during the year. Both tokens showcase robust revenue generation, ongoing technological innovation, and relatively low market capitalizations.

The crypto market’s downturn largely stems from two key concerns, both tied to developments in the United States. The first is the potential liquidation of a significant portion of seized Bitcoins by the U.S. government ahead of Trump’s inauguration. The second is the ongoing repricing driven by an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, with inflation once again taking center stage. While we do not view the first issue as a major concern, we believe the latter could further pressure the crypto market, likely worsening conditions before prices eventually return to green.

Altcoins, Liquidity, and the Business Cycle: Brace for the Q1 Squeeze

The Washington Post and President-elect Donald Trump seem to disagree on whether Trump will implement significant tariffs once he assumes office later this month. We side with the Washington Post. All that and more in the first Crypto Crisp of the year.

The year 2025 is set to be a defining moment for the crypto market, with the potential for remarkable positive developments. In this note, we present our detailed quantitative forecasts for 2025, including our price projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming year.

In our opinion, the market’s current fears are exaggerated and should be met with a sense of composure. Our perspective is to weather this wave of fear calmly while enjoying a pleasant and peaceful Christmas season.

Network effects and adoption are the most vital factors for the success of blockchains. These metrics are essential when evaluating whether a blockchain has achieved a meaningful network effect.