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Crypto Moves

In this biweekly analysis series, Mads Eberhardt, a former Cryptocurrency Analyst at Saxo Bank and trader at Bitcoin Suisse, unveils the complex world of crypto assets. With 8 years of hands-on experience in crypto, Mads delves deep into the heartbeat of the industry, offering a nuanced understanding that goes beyond the surface. We invite you to tap into this extensive knowledge of crypto and fearlessly explore opinions that others might shy away from. While you may not agree with everything, we guarantee that your horizon will broaden.

Besides our crypto portfolio, our offering includes two publications. ‘Crypto Moves’ is our detailed editorial that mostly analyzes a single topic in-depth, published every Thursday. ‘Crypto Crisp,’ on the other hand, is our concise note, published on Mondays, that prepares you for the week ahead in crypto, not least by looking back at the past week.

Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Although it is unlikely that this week will surpass last week in terms of positive crypto developments, there is still plenty on the horizon to be optimistic about. This includes Trump’s ongoing pro-crypto statements, the launch of exchange-traded products in the U.K., and the imminent increase in liquidity.

Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Ethereum’s market outlook is highly bullish following the approval of its spot ETFs, expected to attract $15 to $20 billion in net inflow within a year, despite initial outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. With a friendlier regulatory environment and unique attributes like deflationary supply and staking rewards, Ethereum’s price is projected to reach $6,500 by October. The ETH/BTC ratio is anticipated to hit at least 0.065 later this year.

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Crypto Nugget: Here Comes the Ethereum Spot ETF

Crypto Nugget: Here Comes the Ethereum Spot ETF

President Biden and his administration have made a complete 180 to attract pro-crypto voters. Now, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF seems more likely than ever. We estimate a 95% chance of approval this year, most likely as early as this week. These ETFs, combined with a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment for crypto, will propel us to new heights.

Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Crypto vs. Macro

While macroeconomic factors like improved liquidity and a favorable CPI report boost optimism, crypto-specific factors such as disappointing institutional holdings in Bitcoin ETFs, an unfavorable seasonal trend for crypto, and stagnant Tether (USDT) supply suggest bearish trends.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #28 – U.S. Election Puts Crypto on the Map

There have been no recent updates regarding the SEC’s impending decision on an Ethereum spot ETF. Nevertheless, the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election and Trump’s unexpected pro-crypto stance are exerting pressure on President Biden to adopt more crypto-friendly policies.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Your Move, Gary Gensler

This is the final week before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must make a decision on the Ethereum spot ETF. Given the potentially transformative impact of an Ethereum spot ETF, the next two weeks are critical for the entire industry. There have been several developments regarding this matter in the recent weeks.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #27 – Rollups Leave Ethereum in the Dust

Ethereum’s rollups are poised to realize its potential as a decentralized global computer; however, these same rollups are undermining Ethereum’s current strongest narrative as an appealing yield-generating asset. The promises of rollups will only counterbalance this undermining of Ethereum’s narrative as a productive asset in a few years.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Is That All, Hong Kong?

This weekend saw Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market surge, despite our bearish stance. It seems the market rose primarily due to anticipated improvements in liquidity conditions. However, our bearish arguments remain intact, and we continue to hold the same market position.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #26 – What Goes Up Must Come Down

The crypto market experienced a remarkable rally from late last year up to now. However, all good things eventually come to an end. The market is facing a shortage of compelling short-term narratives, significant selling pressure, and unfavorable seasonal trends. While increased liquidity might provide some relief, it is unlikely to make a significant impact in the near term.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Stripe Returns to Crypto

The crypto market lacks drivers to push prices higher, yet many factors loom that could lead to declines. Short-term narratives are unconvincing, and the buying pressure prior to the Bitcoin halving – motivated by expectations of rising prices – has faded, resulting in bitcoins returning to the spot markets.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #25 – Ethereum Restaking: Potential is Not Risk-Free

Restaking of Ether, with initiatives like EigenLayer, has the potential to significantly enhance Ethereum, benefiting holders, stakers, developers, and the broader ecosystem. However, these benefits are not without their drawbacks. Engaging in restaking carries substantial risks for the individual holders involved and also poses systemic risks to the Ethereum network as a whole.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Up, Not Down

We anticipate the market will soon acknowledge the decreasing tensions between Israel and Iran, coupled with an improvement in US liquidity as tax season wraps up. There are now more compelling reasons to be bullish rather than bearish, despite the recent negative turn in the crypto futures market.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About

Bitcoin does not currently function as a safe haven. According to our quantitative model, it behaves more like a risk-on asset, similar to technology stocks. However, there is potential for Bitcoin to become a safe haven in the future. At this point, there is evidence suggesting that Bitcoin effectively serves as an inflation hedge.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Hong Kong Rhymes With Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions sent Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbling, but the crypto market quickly rebounded, arguably thanks to Hong Kong’s new ETF approvals and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Despite this recovery, ongoing Iran-Israel tensions could still disrupt the market.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #23 – The Bitcoin ETFs Run the World

Since their debut three months ago, the US-based Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted a significant inflow of capital, totaling $12.5 billion. The momentum does not stop here, with additional countries poised to roll out their own exchange-traded Bitcoin products.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Bitcoin Leads the Market

Bitcoin is at the forefront of the market, with other cryptocurrencies attempting to keep pace. We anticipate a continued upward trajectory until a shift occurs, particularly for Bitcoin, in the months following the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Where’s the Volatility?

Recent weeks have seen a notable absence of volatility in the crypto market. However, current indicators suggest that we are on the cusp of a change. We anticipate increased volatility in the coming weeks, predominantly characterized by an overall upward trend.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #21 – Avalanche Is Slowly But Surely Dying

Avalanche, despite its standing as the 10th largest cryptocurrency and a significant player among Layer 1 blockchains with smart contract capabilities, faces a grim outlook. With a nearly $40 billion fully diluted market capitalization, its onchain activity is declining, lagging behind competitors like Solana and Ethereum’s rollups. There is simply not much to celebrate for AVAX holders.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Larry Fink vs. Gary Gensler

A showdown is unfolding in the crypto world, specifically between BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, and Gary Gensler, the Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Moreover, echoing our view from last week’s Crypto Crisp, we are not anticipating significant volatility in the upcoming weeks, especially considering the recent net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #20 – Ethereum Will Never Be the Same

A week has passed since Proto-Danksharding was implemented on the Ethereum blockchain. This upgrade has transformed Ethereum and its rollup ecosystem, setting the stage for expansion into brand new territories. Our advice? It is not wise to go against this trend by placing bets on so-called “Ethereum killers.”

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Profit-Taking

Suddenly, the tipping point was reached. Late last week, the crypto market underwent a correction, eliminating excessive leverage and optimism. We see this as akin to typical corrections seen in any bull market, rather than the beginning of a new downward trend.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #19 – Liquid Staking Protocols Are Ethereum’s Saver

Ethereum’s transition to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism has been a significant boon, instantly positioning it as the most productive cryptocurrency among its peers. However, this success comes with a vulnerability; if future Ethereum spot ETFs gain the ability to stake Ether, Ethereum’s fate could largely fall under the control of traditional finance. The most feasible countermeasure to this scenario lies in the full adoption of liquid staking protocols.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Oh, hello there, London

This morning, Bitcoin hit record highs. Despite my colleagues hoping for a downturn to mitigate my cockiness, the mix of the UK’s crypto embrace, a liquidity boost, and the upcoming Bitcoin halving and an Ethereum upgrade this week only add fuel to the bullish fire. The market’s momentum largely seems unstoppable.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #18 – The Least Speculative Crypto Bull Market

The crypto market is getting less speculative by the minute. There is no need to chase the next big thing by risking funds on obscure altcoins or memecoins. Instead, by aligning with institutional movements, crypto investors stand to gain significantly without taking on too much risk.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios

Looking ahead to the next week in the crypto market, we envision two potential scenarios. One possibility is that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, with Ethereum quickly on its heels. On the other end of the spectrum, the market could experience a minimum 10% decline as it sheds excess leverage. Intriguingly, it is possible that both events could unfold.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor, in fact, Satoshi Nakamoto?

Only one has previously had more supremacy in Bitcoin than Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, namely Satoshi Nakamoto. Saylor has emerged as a leading figure within the Bitcoin community, with his dominance appearing unending – a scenario Nakamoto aimed to avoid. We are concerned that Saylor’s influence may soon become undeniably irreversible.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Finally, Uniswap

Over the past week, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, emerged as the top performer in an otherwise subdued crypto market. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a decrease in net inflow into exchange-traded products, including Bitcoin spot ETFs, compared to the previous week. On Friday, the Uniswap Foundation suggested a new fee mechanism, potentially enhancing its token significantly.

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Crypto Moves #29 – What to Expect from the Ethereum Spot ETFs?

Crypto Moves #16 – Why We Are Long Ethereum Layer 2s

We are incredibly optimistic about the Ethereum Layer 2 space. We are backing this conviction up with a selection of rollup tokens in our portfolio. It appears the wider market has not yet caught on to the fact that rollups could soon render almost all other Layer 1 cryptocurrencies redundant, largely thanks to leveraging Ethereum’s unmatched network effect. These tokens also stand out as some of the rare cryptocurrencies that could genuinely become yield-generating in the not-so-distant future.

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Crypto Crisp: “There Is No Second Place”

Crypto Crisp: Signs of Euphoria

The Bitcoin spot ETFs are experiencing considerable net inflows, the market greatly anticipates Ethereum spot ETFs, and Coinbase reports that retail investors have returned to the market. All in all, the crypto market looks better than it has in ages, but it is not without increased leverage and early signs of euphoria.


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