Russia has cut off its diesel exports – but why? What’s the big plan and how will it affect support for Ukraine?
Something for your Espresso: A diesel crisis is brewing
The Russian curbs on diesel exports arrive at a bad timing with already low inventories ahead of peak demand season. Central banks trying to pause amidst this will feel the wrath from long bond yields.
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Great Game: Ukrainian Breakthrough imminent?
Are the Ukrainians breaking through to Tokmak? Social media is full of rumours and predictions – here’s what you need to know!
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Something for your Espresso: No Russian spill-overs (yet) ahead of EUR-flation week
Benign opening after a volatile weekend with no signs of an increased risk premium in energy/grain markets, while bonds open bid. The inflation numbers will dictate the trends this week.
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Steno Signals #54 – Why Europe remains a wrong consensus call
Geopolitics remain tricky to trade and we don’t see any strong risk/reward trades on the back of the turbulence in Russia over the weekend. Meanwhile, Europe remains an odd consensus bet, while UK inflation and US housing markets risk wrongfooting everyone.
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Positioning Watch: War in Russia? Markets are forward-looking but never see it coming
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
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EM by EM #8 The Indian elephant in the room- will it keep holding up?
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.
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The Great Game – Betrayal from the inside threatens OPEC solidarity
Why – even after successive cuts – does crude oil keep settling on a $70 barrel? The conundrum has pitted the OPEC+ alliance against each other. Suspicious eyes are turning away from outside foes, and are now looking inwards, trying to sniff out the mole who is free-riding on the collective. Will the imposter be detrimental to Saudi’s production cut strategy?
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Ukraine Has Lost the Initiative – 3 Key Predictions on What’s Next
Hopes are high in the West with Leopards soon being let loose in Ukraine. But we see a much darker time ahead for the Ukrainians. We deliver you our 3 current conclusions and 3 key predictions on what’s next.
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The Great Game #7 – German Panzers in Ukraine?
Whoa, what a week it has been in Ukraine. Russian calls for ceasefires, rumours about Putins imminent death and now the prospect of German Panzers rolling around Ukraine. Have we just entered 1943 and not 2023? And does the huge influx of Western armored vehicles change our outlook on the war?
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The Great Game #4 – The Bakhmut Bloodbath
What to make of the Russians making headway around Bakhmut and Ukraine striking deep into Russian hinterland? And what dilemmas await the West?
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Steno Signals #25 – Is there any energy left in the energy trade?
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
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The Great Game #2 – Rise of the Turks
Forget all about the Saudi-Iran Cold War or the Palestinian question. The real agenda of the Middle East is the rise of the Turkic countries and the ascent of Turkey to Great Power status
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Steno Signals #14: What on earth is going on in European electricity markets?
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!
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