Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.
Have the Russians re-gained the initiative? Will Ukraine hold elections? Will we finally see a road to peace? Here’s our 3 key predictions for Ukraine in 2024
Are we in a calm before the storm is unleashed on Gaza? We deliver answers on three key geopolitical questions.
Russia has cut off its diesel exports – but why? What’s the big plan and how will it affect support for Ukraine?
The Russian curbs on diesel exports arrive at a bad timing with already low inventories ahead of peak demand season. Central banks trying to pause amidst this will feel the wrath from long bond yields.
Are the Ukrainians breaking through to Tokmak? Social media is full of rumours and predictions – here’s what you need to know!
Benign opening after a volatile weekend with no signs of an increased risk premium in energy/grain markets, while bonds open bid. The inflation numbers will dictate the trends this week.
Geopolitics remain tricky to trade and we don’t see any strong risk/reward trades on the back of the turbulence in Russia over the weekend. Meanwhile, Europe remains an odd consensus bet, while UK inflation and US housing markets risk wrongfooting everyone.
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.
Why – even after successive cuts – does crude oil keep settling on a $70 barrel? The conundrum has pitted the OPEC+ alliance against each other. Suspicious eyes are turning away from outside foes, and are now looking inwards, trying to sniff out the mole who is free-riding on the collective. Will the imposter be detrimental to Saudi’s production cut strategy?
Hopes are high in the West with Leopards soon being let loose in Ukraine. But we see a much darker time ahead for the Ukrainians. We deliver you our 3 current conclusions and 3 key predictions on what’s next.
Whoa, what a week it has been in Ukraine. Russian calls for ceasefires, rumours about Putins imminent death and now the prospect of German Panzers rolling around Ukraine. Have we just entered 1943 and not 2023? And does the huge influx of Western armored vehicles change our outlook on the war?
What to make of the Russians making headway around Bakhmut and Ukraine striking deep into Russian hinterland? And what dilemmas await the West?
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
Forget all about the Saudi-Iran Cold War or the Palestinian question. The real agenda of the Middle East is the rise of the Turkic countries and the ascent of Turkey to Great Power status
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!