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Something for your Espresso is the Daily morning research letter from Steno Research. Occasional morning letters for the US based audience is also send out under the name Good Morning America

Week at a Glance – Have we seen the top in bond yields despite the tariff chatter?

Week at a Glance – A final leg up in growth before tariffs ruin the party?

The first tariffs are now in place, hitting Mexico and Canada with 25% and China with 10%. Markets initially reacted negatively, but equities have since rebounded from the European open. Key economic data this week will reveal whether growth remains strong or tariffs will derail momentum.

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Something for your Espresso – Okay, so what was the purpose of these reciprocal tariffs?

Something for your Espresso – Trump will allow 2021 to unfold again!

Trump is scaling back on China tariffs, and it seems obvious now that he is working on some sort of tech deal between China and the US, which leaves his policy-mix very loose compared to initial expectations – and he is doing it while the US economy is running hot, making us wonder whether bond yields have not topped yet. 

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Something for your Espresso – Okay, so what was the purpose of these reciprocal tariffs?

Something for Your Espresso:  Liquidity is increasing everywhere – just not within central banks

Liquidity is flowing beyond central banks, creating a clear reflationary signal and fueling risk appetite. Cutting through the noise, the simultaneous rise in inflation, growth, and liquidity points to a powerful macroeconomic shift, with the Fed potentially adding fuel to the fire.

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Something for your Espresso – Okay, so what was the purpose of these reciprocal tariffs?

Something for Your Espresso: Retail Sales Deciding the Direction for the Risk-On Rally

Yesterday’s softer-than-expected core CPI print fueled a relief rally in risk assets, though mixed signals from CARTS and diffusion data suggest the inflation narrative remains uncertain. Today’s Retail Sales report will be crucial in determining market direction, with strong consumption trends pointing to upside risks, but conflicting indicators adding a layer of caution.

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Something for your Espresso – Okay, so what was the purpose of these reciprocal tariffs?

Something for your Espresso: Panic before ATHs in January?

While Powell spooked positioning with the biggest relative VAR shock since March 2020, an influx of liquidity is just around the corner. Perhaps Powell has actually lowered the bar for easing in 2025 by hawking up the projections—September in reverse?

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