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The Great Game

The Great Game is our weekly editorial on geopolitics and global conflict. The byline of the editorial is Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief strategy consultant at PwC and Danish Ministry of Finance.

The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: Who’s in Trump’s good books?

As we approach the July 9th tariffs deadline, we’ve taken a fresh look at the state of global trade relationships and what to expect in the coming week. While the trade war has become something of an old hat, certain countries may still find themselves under pressure—especially as commodities continue to soar.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill Extra – Israel strikes Iran

Israel struck Iran’s core defenses in a rare window of opportunity. Iran’s weak response so far suggests limited escalation ahead—and low near-term risk for oil and markets.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – Metals, Magnets, and Momentum

Oil is grinding higher despite bearish supply dynamics, while precious metals—from platinum to palladium—are breaking out of multi-year downtrends. With the US-China deal unlocking industrial stimulus and positioning still light, the stage is set for a broader reflation move led by commodities.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – Geopolitical Risk Premia Are Back!

As geopolitical tremors from Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz collide with a global trade thaw, markets are waking up to a new regime: strategic metals, defense stocks, and oil are back in vogue. The battlefield is shifting.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: Input prices about to go Nuclear

Trump needs to force an outcome from Putin, which means we are staring directly at increased sanctions. Could this lead input prices to skyrocket—especially in the nuclear industry?

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

Copper is breaking out technically alongside other cyclical metals. And while there are plenty of compelling short-term reasons to be bullish on commodities, this is not the beginning of a new supercycle. Long commodities remains a tactical trade, driven by growth repricing and stretched positioning.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – When the Facts Change, So Do We

The bearish commodity stance is running on fumes, as the key drivers—trade barriers, a short-term USD repricing, and slowing growth—are all beginning to reverse. We’re likely staring into multiple trend shifts across asset classes. Position accordingly.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – The Gold(en) Era Continues!

Growth remains tilted to the downside in our global model framework, signaling that we’re not yet out of the woods in terms of weaker commodity prices. Gold stands out as the only true bull case in this environment, as uncertainty continues to roar—and even when global trade “reopens,” credit will be created in size to cover losses.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..

While broader commodities have been surging over the past week, there is one peculiar thing about what’s going on in commodities: oil is down the drain, which suggests that this has nothing to do with the business cycle. The recent rally has more likely just offered a better entry for commodity shorts!

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

Short commodities is one of our key convictions at the moment, and it’s probably the cleanest expression in the current environment—despite the 90-day pause in tariffs. Here’s why!

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

The doom-loop in commodities is currently in place alongside an inflation narrative, but the demand side of the equation isn’t playing along—leaving the commodity outlook blurry after Liberation (and peace) Day.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: China to the commodity rescue?

Are we seeing a repeat of the 2024 springtime China optimism in metals, or is this year’s bullishness more well-founded? Meanwhile, oil risk premia are rising amid renewed tensions in Yemen, and big demands from Putin in the truce-talks.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – The gameplan for peace in Ukraine

With a temporary deal in place in the Ukraine conflict, we now move on to the next big phase of negotiations: the U.S. talking with Russia. What’s the outlook, and when will we reach a peace deal? We cover it all here.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – Geopolitical Tensions Are Easing, Not Escalating

Despite new conflicts hitting the headlines every week, we are actually seeing meaningful developments in some of the key conflicts globally (in the West), which should continue to put a lid on oil prices, while natural gas thrives in the current tariff environment.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill – The Big Tech Showdown

The geopolitical interplay between the US, EU and China is intensifying, and it seems to revolve around Tech for now. What are the next steps from here in the race for AI, and what are the true intentions of the US and China?

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

Our Thoughts on DeepSeek and the Commoditization of AI/GPUs, Plus Trump/Energy and Europe: Is This the Most Bullish Event in Years or a Problem for Nasdaq and NVIDIA? Let’s take a closer look.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: Strap in for Trump

We look at what has happened and what to expect from Trump during his first week in the Oval Office and how we would position.

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The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?

The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

We see pockets of overbought conditions in energy markets ahead of Trump’s inauguration week. The market appears to have accepted Trump’s ‘bluff’ as the base case for the coming week, raising the question of whether the risk/reward balance is weak.

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