As OPEC+ moves to increase production quotas – what are the real price drivers on the oil market and what does it tell us about the macro outlook?

The Great Game is our weekly editorial on geopolitics and global conflict. The byline of the editorial is Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief strategy consultant at PwC and Danish Ministry of Finance.
As OPEC+ moves to increase production quotas – what are the real price drivers on the oil market and what does it tell us about the macro outlook?
As we approach the July 9th tariffs deadline, we’ve taken a fresh look at the state of global trade relationships and what to expect in the coming week. While the trade war has become something of an old hat, certain countries may still find themselves under pressure—especially as commodities continue to soar.
Trump’s strike on Iran risks escalating tensions, but with both sides seeking an off-ramp, markets may be overpricing the threat of a broader conflict.
A sudden, solid risk/reward opportunity emerges to end Iran’s nuclear threat for Trump — but markets may be misreading the impact of a quick, no-quagmire campaign. Here’s why.
Israel struck Iran’s core defenses in a rare window of opportunity. Iran’s weak response so far suggests limited escalation ahead—and low near-term risk for oil and markets.
Oil is grinding higher despite bearish supply dynamics, while precious metals—from platinum to palladium—are breaking out of multi-year downtrends. With the US-China deal unlocking industrial stimulus and positioning still light, the stage is set for a broader reflation move led by commodities.
As geopolitical tremors from Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz collide with a global trade thaw, markets are waking up to a new regime: strategic metals, defense stocks, and oil are back in vogue. The battlefield is shifting.
Trump needs to force an outcome from Putin, which means we are staring directly at increased sanctions. Could this lead input prices to skyrocket—especially in the nuclear industry?
Copper is breaking out technically alongside other cyclical metals. And while there are plenty of compelling short-term reasons to be bullish on commodities, this is not the beginning of a new supercycle. Long commodities remains a tactical trade, driven by growth repricing and stretched positioning.
The bearish commodity stance is running on fumes, as the key drivers—trade barriers, a short-term USD repricing, and slowing growth—are all beginning to reverse. We’re likely staring into multiple trend shifts across asset classes. Position accordingly.
Growth remains tilted to the downside in our global model framework, signaling that we’re not yet out of the woods in terms of weaker commodity prices. Gold stands out as the only true bull case in this environment, as uncertainty continues to roar—and even when global trade “reopens,” credit will be created in size to cover losses.
While US growth is on the verge of tipping over, most commodities (ex oil) used as inputs in production haven’t flinched. We expect all commodities to swiftly realign with the business cycle over the coming weeks.
While broader commodities have been surging over the past week, there is one peculiar thing about what’s going on in commodities: oil is down the drain, which suggests that this has nothing to do with the business cycle. The recent rally has more likely just offered a better entry for commodity shorts!
Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.
Short commodities is one of our key convictions at the moment, and it’s probably the cleanest expression in the current environment—despite the 90-day pause in tariffs. Here’s why!
The doom-loop in commodities is currently in place alongside an inflation narrative, but the demand side of the equation isn’t playing along—leaving the commodity outlook blurry after Liberation (and peace) Day.
With Liberation Day approaching, we take a closer look at the embedded tariff premia in commodity markets—and explore ways to trade the geopolitical landscape through commodities. Tune in!
Are we seeing a repeat of the 2024 springtime China optimism in metals, or is this year’s bullishness more well-founded? Meanwhile, oil risk premia are rising amid renewed tensions in Yemen, and big demands from Putin in the truce-talks.
With a temporary deal in place in the Ukraine conflict, we now move on to the next big phase of negotiations: the U.S. talking with Russia. What’s the outlook, and when will we reach a peace deal? We cover it all here.
Despite new conflicts hitting the headlines every week, we are actually seeing meaningful developments in some of the key conflicts globally (in the West), which should continue to put a lid on oil prices, while natural gas thrives in the current tariff environment.
While there are loads of arguments to sell commodities in the short term as the fading tariff premium and weakening demand put pressure on broad commodities, there is a bull case brewing underneath the hood once the dust settles.
The geopolitical interplay between the US, EU and China is intensifying, and it seems to revolve around Tech for now. What are the next steps from here in the race for AI, and what are the true intentions of the US and China?
We present our asymmetrical bets in commodities if we are approaching a more peaceful environment going forward.
When cutting out the Trump noise, there are very decent opportunities in both oil and gold on a trend basis backed by geopolitics!
Our Thoughts on DeepSeek and the Commoditization of AI/GPUs, Plus Trump/Energy and Europe: Is This the Most Bullish Event in Years or a Problem for Nasdaq and NVIDIA? Let’s take a closer look.
We look at what has happened and what to expect from Trump during his first week in the Oval Office and how we would position.
We see pockets of overbought conditions in energy markets ahead of Trump’s inauguration week. The market appears to have accepted Trump’s ‘bluff’ as the base case for the coming week, raising the question of whether the risk/reward balance is weak.
Trump’s tariffs talks have now been called a bluff but for how long? Get your popcorn out and have your broker on speed dial because the next year will be 2017 on steroids.
While global manufacturing trends are improving slightly beneath the surface, the Chinese economy has taken another turn south after stimulus efforts failed to deliver (again). There are not a lot of positive signs for commodities at the moment.
China is likely preparing stimulus in size to combat the tariffs from the Trump administration, but what are the effects on commodities? As always, it’s more complicated than it might look.