The Great Game is our weekly editorial on geopolitics and global conflict. The byline of the editorial is Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief strategy consultant at PwC and Danish Ministry of Finance.
Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.
Short commodities is one of our key convictions at the moment, and it’s probably the cleanest expression in the current environment—despite the 90-day pause in tariffs. Here’s why!
The doom-loop in commodities is currently in place alongside an inflation narrative, but the demand side of the equation isn’t playing along—leaving the commodity outlook blurry after Liberation (and peace) Day.
With Liberation Day approaching, we take a closer look at the embedded tariff premia in commodity markets—and explore ways to trade the geopolitical landscape through commodities. Tune in!
Are we seeing a repeat of the 2024 springtime China optimism in metals, or is this year’s bullishness more well-founded? Meanwhile, oil risk premia are rising amid renewed tensions in Yemen, and big demands from Putin in the truce-talks.
With a temporary deal in place in the Ukraine conflict, we now move on to the next big phase of negotiations: the U.S. talking with Russia. What’s the outlook, and when will we reach a peace deal? We cover it all here.
Despite new conflicts hitting the headlines every week, we are actually seeing meaningful developments in some of the key conflicts globally (in the West), which should continue to put a lid on oil prices, while natural gas thrives in the current tariff environment.
While there are loads of arguments to sell commodities in the short term as the fading tariff premium and weakening demand put pressure on broad commodities, there is a bull case brewing underneath the hood once the dust settles.
The geopolitical interplay between the US, EU and China is intensifying, and it seems to revolve around Tech for now. What are the next steps from here in the race for AI, and what are the true intentions of the US and China?
We present our asymmetrical bets in commodities if we are approaching a more peaceful environment going forward.
When cutting out the Trump noise, there are very decent opportunities in both oil and gold on a trend basis backed by geopolitics!
Our Thoughts on DeepSeek and the Commoditization of AI/GPUs, Plus Trump/Energy and Europe: Is This the Most Bullish Event in Years or a Problem for Nasdaq and NVIDIA? Let’s take a closer look.
We look at what has happened and what to expect from Trump during his first week in the Oval Office and how we would position.
We see pockets of overbought conditions in energy markets ahead of Trump’s inauguration week. The market appears to have accepted Trump’s ‘bluff’ as the base case for the coming week, raising the question of whether the risk/reward balance is weak.
Trump’s tariffs talks have now been called a bluff but for how long? Get your popcorn out and have your broker on speed dial because the next year will be 2017 on steroids.
While global manufacturing trends are improving slightly beneath the surface, the Chinese economy has taken another turn south after stimulus efforts failed to deliver (again). There are not a lot of positive signs for commodities at the moment.
China is likely preparing stimulus in size to combat the tariffs from the Trump administration, but what are the effects on commodities? As always, it’s more complicated than it might look.
We are fading Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as we see them as negotiation tactics more than actual threats of real implementation.
We look at the geopolitical and fiscal impact of the new Trump administration.
While the world is busy guessing who will win this election, we’re here scratching our heads over what the story for oil will be in the coming months. Will the Saudis flood the markets after the election?
Natural Gas prices are back in the front seat once again with TTF rallying decently since the start of October. Is it bound to continue? We don’t think so.
This week’s The Drill will focus on the reflation story and how it is the growth narrative that is dominating the inflation narrative. Basically the growth impulse stories from the US and China are the loudest whilst Europe is dragging, but no reasons to go long just yet.
Oil markets are in free fall now as it seems like the Biden admin has begged Netanyahu not to escalate things ahead of the election.
China is getting slaughtered this morning as the “stimmie drug” is fizzling while geopolitical risk in crude is waning. We keep a negative bias on commodity markets as the China trade is fading.
It is a market on autopilot that buys Copper and the likes because China is handing out vouchers. We remain unconvinced of a China-fuelled commodity rally here. Here is why.
Our thoughts on the PBOC’s stimulus implementations along with thoughts on the situation in Lebanon.
Last week marked the largest week-over-week drop in freight rates since late 2022, as key factors driving previous rate increases are slowing down. With China facing ongoing economic malaise and global growth weakening, the future outlook for freight rates remains uncertain.
Crude prices haven’t responded to output delays as hoped, and we wonder whether that will prompt the alliance to change its strategy.
What is the path to peace in Ukraine and what might Zelenskyy’s “plan to end the war” entail?
Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics. This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.
