As the equity risk premium dips below 1%, nearing levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis, should we all start the fire sale?
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Macro Nugget: EM PPI telling DM what to come?
Looks like we are not done talking about inflation just yet …
Macro Nugget: All time highs in flights around the globe
We are flying like never before!
Macro Nugget: Is Hiking Interest Rates Inflationary?
On The Inflationary Impact of Fed Rate Hikes and Potential Rate Cuts
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Macro Nugget: It ain’t over till the fat lady sings
According to some polls things could get very intersting in US politics over the next months.
Macro Nugget: Keir Starmer is building for a reason
Rents in the UK are still skyrocketing
Macro Nugget: Curing recession blues!
Lots of indicators are telling you to fade the talks about US recession.
Macro Nugget: Two major waves of liquidity left this year of varying quality
In this primer on USD liquidity, we aim to discuss why and when liquidity matters, and also highlight the two major drivers of liquidity until New Year’s. Liquidity will continue to improve.
Macro Nugget: Was the productivity/disinflation story of ’23 a hoax?
Do they know the true number of employees in the US?
Macro Nugget: Fragility In European Electricity Markets
The price glitch in European power markets is a symptom of something bigger
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Macro Nugget: When it rains, it pours…
Shipping routes between Asia and Europe are getting pressured.
Macro Nugget: Earnings and market cap going hand in hand
Fiscal expansion, QE and ZIRP the mother of all stimuli for US large cap?
Macro Nugget: The Mag 7s are increasingly just the market
Concentration in SPX is at an all time high
Bye Bye Beveridge Curve?
A look at the Beveridge Curveand the US labor market post COVID
Macro Nugget: US Consumers’ Savings Are Far From Depleted
Reevaluating the San Francisco Fed’s Assumptions on Household Savings Rates
Macro Nugget: Trump firmly in the driver’s seat
2 charts on the US election.
Macro nugget: Differences in Interest rate-sensitivities are starting to show in Bankruptcy numbers
The differences in interest rate sensitivities across regions are starting to be highlighted in bankruptcy numbers
Macro Nugget: Sweden pointing to better times in real estate?
Improving sentiment in Swedish real estate to spill over into the rest of the world?
Macro Nugget: More liquidity and less pressure on the long end in June/July
Improving liquidity with help from Yellen & co!
Macro Nugget: Chinese copper stock continuing to baffle
Copper stock levels in China and the chart that continues to baffle more and more!
Last week in Geopolitics
This week in geopolitics, Sunak and Starmer debated key issues ahead of the UK’s July 4 election. In India, Modi’s BJP retained power despite falling short of a majority, influenced by a strong opposition and economic concerns. The Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates, US-China trade talks resume amid South China Sea tensions, and Israel-Palestine peace talks show progress while Saudi-Iran relations improve.
Macro Nugget: Freight rates continuing their increase!
There is nothing stopping freight rates at the moment, it seems!
Macro Nugget: On housing and shelter inflation in the US
Immigration is putting pressures on shelter inflation.
Crypto Nugget: Here Comes the Ethereum Spot ETF
President Biden and his administration have made a complete 180 to attract pro-crypto voters. Now, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF seems more likely than ever. We estimate a 95% chance of approval this year, most likely as early as this week. These ETFs, combined with a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment for crypto, will propel us to new heights.
Macro Nugget: Why India is the main loser if China rebounds
If China truly bounces back, India will sell off further
Out of the Box: Don’t worry about the real rates spread, ECB
We’ll present 3 arguments for the ECB to commence its rate cutting cycle and not be afraid of the Fed and their policy rate decisions.
Macro Nugget: Freight rates are getting spicy again
Forth straight week of rising freight rates for 40 foot containers!
Macro Nugget: Trump vs Biden
A look at asset markets’ expectation of the upcoming presidential race between Biden and Trump.
Macro Nugget: The CNY is STRONG versus peers. A devaluation is appropriate
We present one of five reasons for the CNY to devaluate.
FREE MACRO NUGGET: Are PMI numbers garbage post Covid?
With ISM numbers coming out this week here’s a free macro nugget with some reflections on post pandemic PMIs
