Despite communicating to cure the CNY to prevent capital flights, the PBoC is likely going to allow the exchange rate to float even higher than now to boost foreign investments, which is the only medicine that can cure the Chinese economic disease.
Oil positioning is not as long as people think when looking at actual volumes, bonds are still underperforming, and the bearish sentiment in equities still prevails. Read along for more positioning data insights!
Markets are finally sensing that something is rotten in the economy. We have a look at what to stay on top of in the weeks to come.
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
The spread between the income and production side of the economy keeps widening, but are there reasons to worry, or is it once again just a statistical question?
We dive into the challenges ECB are (still) faced with, as headline inflation is likely to rebound from November and onwards, giving the ECB another – but bad – argument to keep policy restrictive. A hike seems like a done deal tomorrow, but what about the path for 2024?
The first signs of a weakening job market are here, but will there be more to come? And what are the implications for equity markets?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
The simplest of rules still holds in Real Estate space. The current lack of volume is a harbinger for the price development. The trigger could prove to be the weakness in Services.
The UK has received some attention throughout the current economic cycle as they try to combat weakening growth together with inflation way above BoE’s target. Is now the time to buy UK assets, or is it still a nogo? We’ve run the numbers.
The doves are back after yesterday’s job openings data which signaled a labor market cooling off, allowing consensus to favor a pause in September. As always, there are plenty of things to dive into in this week’s edition.
With the inflation report coming out this Thursday, we of course provide you with an actionable take on the path for EZ HICP and whether now might be the time to buy euro bonds
CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
Ahead of the CPI release tomorrow we zoom out to provide you with the bigger picture and what to watch out for in global macro over the next weeks.
An interesting gap is emerging between GDP and GDI, which in theory should be 2 conceptually equal measures of domestic output. Who’s right and who’s wrong? And where does this place us in the business cycle?
The tightening cycle continues for both the Fed, ECB and now also BoJ, and that means it’s time to revisit global money trends to see what might happen next.
The central bank week is over, and that means it’s time for us to have a look at how Investors and Traders perceived the Fed meeting and how they have adjusted their portfolios in response.
It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?
Everything points to a 25 bps hike and then a pause from the Fed at today’s FOMC meeting so where does this leave us historically and what do we think about the outlook? Time for a Fed pause watch!
With everybody jumping onboard on the equity rally, we have a look at how retail investors are positioned in equities, and what surveys have to offer us on the positioning front
With the possibility of the manufacturing sector rebounding, commodities might be in for a ride as demand increases in a tight market.
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This week our primary focus is the current business cycle, where we try to figure out which stage we are in, and what outlook different asset classes are pricing in. Today’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’ is no exception.
With the recent move in swap rates and the JPY, we have once again looked into Japan to find out when BoJ will do something about their policy and if the Yen is a viable option for your portfolio. JPY looks more like a sell than like a buy here.
With the US inflation report coming in later today, we have a look at the 5 things that we are keeping an eye out for in markets.
With the recent drop in house lending in the Eurozone, we take a closer look at how exposed European consumers and corporations actually are to further interest rate hikes. A teaser: It doesn’t look particularly great.
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Economic data keeps surprising us positively, and markets are starting to believe that a soft landing is the base case. That’s at least what positioning data is telling us.
The deposit guarantee scheme requires all banks to pay a yearly fee to local DGS funds to reach a preset target. But what countries are missing their targets, and who will have the hardest time at year-end?
It’s Wednesday, and that calls for us to dissect 5 topics that we follow in Global Macro currently. What to expect from today’s panel discussion between governors? How is it going with the ongoing fragmentation of Europe? And will Riksbank hike 50bps like Norge’s bank? Find out here.
