Our models hint of a HUGE increase in liquidity in January due to issuance and outflows from the ON RRP facility, which might provide some fuel for the soft landing rally in equities and bonds. See what our Asset Allocation tool suggests for the month ahead here.
Limited upside in the ISM Manufacturing index as we await a dovish EUR-flation number coming in on Friday. There are plenty of things to look at in the global macro landscape this week.
We round off 2023 with some what-ifs that could wrongfoot consensus in 2024. And maybe they are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.
As we approach 2024 we have a look at 2023 in rewind and point out the main positioning themes of the year, and how investors have positioned themselves for the new year.
We launched our own alpha portfolio earlier this year, and oh boy has it been a (mostly enjoyable) ride. Read along as we look back at our performance this year and prepare for next year’s allocation.
Markets are expecting a re-acceleration in November’s inflation number tomorrow with expectations at 0.1% vs 0.0% in October. What do our models tell us, and what should we expect? Our thoughts and findings here.
On the back of a Fed meeting markets have been partying like there is no tomorrow. We assess the recent moves in positioning and reflect on how we see markets move leading into 2024
With central banks on duty again this week, we share our thoughts on rate decisions, updated projections and how to play it, before the meetings. Enjoy
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
Bonds and liquidity are taking the headlines as we most likely are approaching the end of the global hiking cycle. Find out what we currently look at here.
Equity markets are as bullish as they were in 2021, while fixed-income markets continue to price Fed cuts in for Q2-2024. Are there reasons to worry about current market positioning? Find out here.
With Spanish and German inflation numbers out today, it’s almost safe to say that Eurostat will deliver a dovish number tomorrow as well.
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
After today’s soft inflation report from the US, we have a look at how markets are positioned at current junctures. Find out if you have your eggs in the right basket, and what consensus is currently.
The US CPI report will land in our inbox tomorrow, and while tomorrow’s print could look promising for the disinflation-crowd, the path toward 2% is more tricky than first anticipated.
As SLOOS-alike reports have come in for both EU and Japan, we have a look at the differences in credit surveys across the Atlantic, and which credit spreads to look out for in the time to come
The supply side has probably been what’s driven commodities higher in 2023, but how is the supply looking in metals and grains currently given the recent surprising momentum in for example Iron Ore?
With central bank policy and energy having dominated FX throughout 22’, we have a look at what underlying fundamentals and correlations are telling us about the fair value of the hottest FX pairs currently.
USDJPY will probably be THE pair to watch, as a break of the 150 handle will be catastrophic for risk sentiment and the path for BoJ. Read what else to look out for in global macro in our 5 things to watch.
The latest NFP report erased most rumors of an upcoming downfall in the labor market, but it might not be as picture perfect as predicted by analysts.
BoJ likely intervened yesterday for the first time in a year, the American labor market looks stronger than feared and PBoC is looking to cope with domestic capital flights. Read more in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Despite communicating to cure the CNY to prevent capital flights, the PBoC is likely going to allow the exchange rate to float even higher than now to boost foreign investments, which is the only medicine that can cure the Chinese economic disease.
Oil positioning is not as long as people think when looking at actual volumes, bonds are still underperforming, and the bearish sentiment in equities still prevails. Read along for more positioning data insights!
Markets are finally sensing that something is rotten in the economy. We have a look at what to stay on top of in the weeks to come.
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
The spread between the income and production side of the economy keeps widening, but are there reasons to worry, or is it once again just a statistical question?
We dive into the challenges ECB are (still) faced with, as headline inflation is likely to rebound from November and onwards, giving the ECB another – but bad – argument to keep policy restrictive. A hike seems like a done deal tomorrow, but what about the path for 2024?
The first signs of a weakening job market are here, but will there be more to come? And what are the implications for equity markets?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
