U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is forming a crypto team for his administration, which looks highly favorable for the crypto industry. On another note, the recent U.S. jobs report delivered extremely ideal conditions for digital assets. Meanwhile, smaller Bitcoin holders are showing a trend of selling, while the largest whale, MicroStrategy, continues to accumulate bitcoins.
Bitcoin recently broke through the highly significant psychological level of $100,000 but has since dipped below it. The pressing question now is whether Bitcoin will close above $100,000 on New Year’s Eve. Here, we examine the key charts that will determine the answer—and we believe the answer is yes.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has begun to shine again, not only through its price growth but also through crucial metrics that are fueling this resurgence.
While much of the crypto world is focused on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, many are overlooking the significant positive strides introduced by the European Union’s MiCA regulatory framework, set for full implementation on December 30. This framework aims to protect investors while making the crypto market more accessible and appealing, particularly to non-crypto-native retail and institutional investors.
We are witnessing a growing trend of crypto-friendly regulatory environments, with the UK now aligning itself alongside the U.S. and Europe. While this regulatory progress is more of a longer term development, in the very near term, market conditions suggest we are overbought.
The 4-year cycle for Bitcoin strikes again, just as it has three times before. It simply appears that the market is stupid, unable to recognize the supply shock caused by Bitcoin halvings from miles away. Drawing on the outcomes of the previous three halvings, we look forward to what the medium term may bring for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy continues its aggressive Bitcoin acquisitions, while the market’s speculative nature shows no signs of abating.
Altcoin season in this bull market is approaching fast. Trump’s U.S. presidential victory is undoubtedly more favorable for altcoins than for Bitcoin, and they stand to gain even more from declining interest rates. We are already seeing the effects, with Ethereum’s transactional revenue surging in recent days. Following Trump’s win, we estimate a 50% chance that a new ETF will launch in the U.S. in 2025, with Solana being the most likely candidate.
Last week, Trump’s reelection as U.S. President ignited a significant rally in digital assets, marking one of the most impactful days in crypto history. While Bitcoin soared to nearly $85,000, we remain cautious about the speculative surge fairly driven by derivatives. The uptrend is risky to bet against, but sharp corrections may still lie ahead.
Donald Trump’s reelection as President of the United States is a game changer for the crypto market, setting the stage for transformative years ahead. We are confident that this will reshape the industry. However, in the immediate term, the rally seems to be driven more by the derivatives market than by the spot market. We would like to see some of this speculative excess ease, paving the way for a more sustainable move higher.
The U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a toss-up. The upside? A Donald Trump win tomorrow would spark a near-term surge in crypto prices. The downside? We are more likely looking at a Kamala Harris administration over the next four years, which would be far less supportive of the crypto industry.
The macroeconomic environment is turning strongly positive for crypto, with liquidity on the rise and interest rates trending downward. Now, the last piece is a Trump victory on Tuesday—without it, the crypto markets could get nasty.
The overall trend in the crypto market remains upward. However, for the time being, it seems largely driven by speculative activity in the derivatives market. This level of speculation is not sustainable, so we continue to look for a reduction in the open interest of futures.
MicroStrategy’s premium over Bitcoin has surged due to Saylor’s ‘Bitcoin bank’ vision and the recent stock split. However, with the availability of ETF options, increasing global regulatory clarity—especially under a likely Trump administration—and rising Bitcoin prices putting additional buying pressure on MicroStrategy, we expect the premium to fall below 200%, similar to what occurred during the 2021 bull market.
The overall trend of the crypto market is undoubtedly upward. However, we are waiting for some of the excess open interest and leverage in the market to be cleared out. This is likely to occur following what we expect will be an imminent retaliatory strike by Israel.
Over the past week, my X feed has been flooded with doomsday predictions claiming that Uniswap launching its own Ethereum rollup will be the final blow to Ethereum. This is absolutely not the case. In the short term, it will have no impact on the activity of Uniswap’s mainnet application. In the longer term, it will actually support Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap by being an interoperable liquidity hub. As rollups are about to start paying for blobs, Ethereum’s transactional revenue is still sustained even as activity moves from mainnet to rollups.
The crypto market showed strength over the weekend, despite a notable Coinbase discount on Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling net selling by its users. Trading higher even with this discount indicates strong upward momentum. For now, we are not concerned about the 69,330 bitcoins seized by the U.S. government in connection to the Silk Road case.
The decentralized stablecoin protocol Maker is undergoing a transition to rebrand as Sky, with its stablecoin shifting from Dai to USDS. This change is expected to significantly reduce Maker’s profitability, but we anticipate that it will drive substantial growth instead. Overall, we remain highly optimistic about this transition.
The institutional adoption of crypto is progressing steadily. Last week saw announcements from SWIFT, Visa, and BBVA. It is important to closely monitor these institutional moves, as they will play a crucial role in driving this crypto bull market.
The tensions in the Middle East and the unexpectedly tight liquidity at the start of October create a risk-reward profile that strongly favors long positions in crypto. As long as Israel does not respond with significant force against Iran, the outlook is extremely positive.
The fourth quarter looks highly bullish for crypto, driven by increased U.S. dollar liquidity, strong seasonal trends, Chinese stimulus, and positive factors like the post-Bitcoin halving and low interest rates. However, in the short term, we would prefer to see a drop in open interest in the Bitcoin futures market to ensure it is not overly leveraged.
The imminent U.S. Presidential election can only surprise the crypto market to the upside, providing yet another reason to be long crypto as we enter the fourth quarter.
This week will bring the last liquidity squeeze before multiple factors come together to push us higher into the fourth quarter of the year.
Ethereum has significantly underperformed Bitcoin in recent years, especially in recent months. However, much like in 2021, when Ethereum more than doubled in value against Bitcoin in just a few months, it is now poised to shine again—particularly following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut yesterday.
The crypto market has revealed its hand. A 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday will lead the market higher, while we expect that a 25 basis point cut will only cause a limited move to the downside.
There is little doubt that the first U.S. rate cut will happen next week. Here is our view on how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest of the crypto market will react to this cut, despite the limited historical data available.
Repeat after us: short-term pain for long-term gain. This is often the case in crypto, especially now.
We turned bearish on Monday due to a worsening economic outlook, characterized by weaker growth and tightening liquidity in September. While the month will be challenging, it’s premature to declare the bull market over. We expect either further downward movement or sideways trading this month, but anticipate a strong recovery starting in October and continuing beyond.
In August, we anticipated a crypto market recovery. While this was somewhat accurate, current signs suggest a downturn or, at best, sideways action in September due to challenging macroeconomic conditions, negative ETF flows, and the absence of a Coinbase price premium.
Decentralized finance is poised for a resurgence in interest, but this alone will not drive substantial price increases for DeFi-focused cryptocurrencies. To achieve significant price appreciation, these cryptocurrencies need to demonstrate widespread adoption, strong revenue generation, minimal token unlocks, a growth-oriented structure, and, importantly, direct monetary rewards for holders funded by their revenue. We have identified two DeFi cryptocurrencies that meet all these criteria.
