With Spanish and German inflation numbers out today, it’s almost safe to say that Eurostat will deliver a dovish number tomorrow as well.
Positioning Watch – All about the soft landing narrative
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
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Positioning Watch – Positioning for lower yields and weaker USD
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
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Positioning Watch – The cocktail of heavy logs in both equities and bonds
After today’s soft inflation report from the US, we have a look at how markets are positioned at current junctures. Find out if you have your eggs in the right basket, and what consensus is currently.
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USD CPI Watch: The tricky path to 2% despite a soft report
The US CPI report will land in our inbox tomorrow, and while tomorrow’s print could look promising for the disinflation-crowd, the path toward 2% is more tricky than first anticipated.
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Credit Nugget – Who’s got the tightest standards, and what does it mean for credit spreads
As SLOOS-alike reports have come in for both EU and Japan, we have a look at the differences in credit surveys across the Atlantic, and which credit spreads to look out for in the time to come
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Inventory Nugget – How are world inventories in metals and grains looking?
The supply side has probably been what’s driven commodities higher in 2023, but how is the supply looking in metals and grains currently given the recent surprising momentum in for example Iron Ore?
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FX Watch – Exploring FX fundamentals
With central bank policy and energy having dominated FX throughout 22’, we have a look at what underlying fundamentals and correlations are telling us about the fair value of the hottest FX pairs currently.
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5 Things We Watch – Central Bank Outlook, USDJPY, Natural Gas, Credit & Liquidity
USDJPY will probably be THE pair to watch, as a break of the 150 handle will be catastrophic for risk sentiment and the path for BoJ. Read what else to look out for in global macro in our 5 things to watch.
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Labor Watch – Running through the anomalies in the labor market
The latest NFP report erased most rumors of an upcoming downfall in the labor market, but it might not be as picture perfect as predicted by analysts.
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5 Things We Watch – Manufacturing, Natural Gas, JOLTS, BoJ & China
BoJ likely intervened yesterday for the first time in a year, the American labor market looks stronger than feared and PBoC is looking to cope with domestic capital flights. Read more in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
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China Watch – Foreign Direct Investment & Capital Controls
Despite communicating to cure the CNY to prevent capital flights, the PBoC is likely going to allow the exchange rate to float even higher than now to boost foreign investments, which is the only medicine that can cure the Chinese economic disease.
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Positioning Watch – Oil longs are not as big as you think
Oil positioning is not as long as people think when looking at actual volumes, bonds are still underperforming, and the bearish sentiment in equities still prevails. Read along for more positioning data insights!
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5 Things We Watch – EUR Inflation, Ifo Survey, Swedish CRE, Deposit Flights & Nuclear/Uranium
Markets are finally sensing that something is rotten in the economy. We have a look at what to stay on top of in the weeks to come.
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5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
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Recession Nugget: What’s the deal with GDP and GDI
The spread between the income and production side of the economy keeps widening, but are there reasons to worry, or is it once again just a statistical question?
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EUR Watch – The ECB will soon reveal their true inflation vs growth preferences
We dive into the challenges ECB are (still) faced with, as headline inflation is likely to rebound from November and onwards, giving the ECB another – but bad – argument to keep policy restrictive. A hike seems like a done deal tomorrow, but what about the path for 2024?
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Conclusion on Services Week: Our take on equities and the labor market
The first signs of a weakening job market are here, but will there be more to come? And what are the implications for equity markets?
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Services Week: What to buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
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Real Estate Nugget: Volume leads price – bad news for 2024 still
The simplest of rules still holds in Real Estate space. The current lack of volume is a harbinger for the price development. The trigger could prove to be the weakness in Services.
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UK Watch – Are UK assets a go or a nogo?
The UK has received some attention throughout the current economic cycle as they try to combat weakening growth together with inflation way above BoE’s target. Is now the time to buy UK assets, or is it still a nogo? We’ve run the numbers.
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5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO
The doves are back after yesterday’s job openings data which signaled a labor market cooling off, allowing consensus to favor a pause in September. As always, there are plenty of things to dive into in this week’s edition.
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EUR Inflation Watch – It’s all about energy and food
With the inflation report coming out this Thursday, we of course provide you with an actionable take on the path for EZ HICP and whether now might be the time to buy euro bonds
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Positioning Watch – The Chinese disappointment is written all over the latest positioning
CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
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5 Things We Watch – Fed overtightening, Curve steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China
Ahead of the CPI release tomorrow we zoom out to provide you with the bigger picture and what to watch out for in global macro over the next weeks.
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Business Cycle Watch – Recession or rebound?
An interesting gap is emerging between GDP and GDI, which in theory should be 2 conceptually equal measures of domestic output. Who’s right and who’s wrong? And where does this place us in the business cycle?
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Money Watch – Is money growth BACK?
The tightening cycle continues for both the Fed, ECB and now also BoJ, and that means it’s time to revisit global money trends to see what might happen next.
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Positioning Watch – The market’s response to another Fed hike
The central bank week is over, and that means it’s time for us to have a look at how Investors and Traders perceived the Fed meeting and how they have adjusted their portfolios in response.
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5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit
It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?
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Pause Watch: 25 bps and then a pause!?
Everything points to a 25 bps hike and then a pause from the Fed at today’s FOMC meeting so where does this leave us historically and what do we think about the outlook? Time for a Fed pause watch!
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