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Oskar Vårdal

Andreas Steno Larsen
5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

5 Things We Watch – EUR-Inflation, Central Banks, The Business Cycle, Positioning & Commodities

Markets find themselves at a crossroads as the US economy is doing better than feared, while inflation is not acting the way the Fed hoped for. Meanwhile, European disinflation continues, which paves the way for larger divergences between central banks.

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Positioning Watch – Reflation bets are back in

Positioning Watch – Steepener bets back on?

Manufacturing sensitive assets have generally been outperforming broad-market benchmarks over the past weeks, despite some signs that the manufacturing boom could be short-lived. Some markets have started to agree, lowering exposure in both commodities and cyclical FX.

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5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

5 Things We Watch – Meeting Minutes, Cyclical Momentum, Natural Gas, Excess Retirements & China

A possible return of cyclical momentum paired with inflation has caught the attention of macro enthusiasts, but markets continue to celebrate the promised cuts from the Fed. Will sentiment change with tonight’s meeting minutes? We elaborate on the 5 things we look at this week!

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Positioning Watch – Low FX volatility provides cheap leverage for a rebound in manufacturing

Positioning Watch – Low FX volatility provides cheap leverage for a rebound in manufacturing

If a rebound in manufacturing is truly happening, current dynamics in FX option markets provide cheap leverage and good opportunities to capitalize on our trading ideas. In the equity space, broad momentum is slowly creeping back in ETF fund flows, and the early reacceleration in prices haven’t affected sentiment it seems.

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5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

5 Things We Watch – Inflation updates, Labor Market, Oil, Chinese equities & Growth

The BLS will update inflation weights and seasonal adjustment factors on Friday, the labor market is still strong but weaknesses are emerging, oil dropped back below 80 despite solid fundamentals, Chinese equities look cheap and the US is nowhere near a recession (for now). We will cover it all today.

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