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Oskar Vårdal

Andreas Steno Larsen
Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Positioning Watch – The real world strikes back

We have for a long time been framing real world demand as the reason why real world assets like commodities and real estate have been lagging behind. With the supply side of the equation getting tight, while demand has stayed strong, prices are starting to move, fast! And positioning follows.

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Inflation Watch – Is goods-flation a bigger issue for the BoE and the ECB than the Fed?

US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April

The US CPI report came in a tad on the soft side, which is good news for the rate cut crowd, and risk assets will likely be allowed to rally further from here with lower USD-rates feeding into FCIs during May. Meanwhile, real-time gauges of activity already hint of a comeback relative to the soft April patch.

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Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?

By taking the rolling beta of various assets to the performance of Global Macro Hedge Funds, we are able to generate an approximation of how macro traders are positioned in this environment. A clue: They are leaning towards a CNY devaluation too, while they are short USD fixed income and long the USD (broadly).

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5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

While economic data hasn’t been as strong as one would have hoped for, there are plenty of signs that risk assets and equities in general will do well in the coming time, which brings hot inflation prints and higher liquidity. Macro is interesting as always!

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5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

5 Things We Watch – SOFR Probabilities, USDJPY, CNY Devaluation, IFO & Eurozone electricity

Equities are back to winning ways, while USD rates traders agree on 0 cuts this year being a probable scenario. Meanwhile, China is likely preparing for a devaluation of the CNY, and the intervention risks in JPY pairs increases, and the next macro battle in 2024 will likely be found in EM.

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Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now

Option-implied probabilities derived from DEC2024 SOFR options show interesting dynamics in Fixed Income sentiment, where rates traders now almost see 0 cuts or even hikes as the most favored outcome by December this year. Read how positioning data has evolved over the last week here.

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5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

5 Things We Watch – Rates pricing, Bond positioning, Equities setback, USD Wrecking Ball & Inflation markets

Everything will be about central bank divergences going forward, as the Fed is looking to hold rates steady while ECB prepares to cut. How will it affect allocations, and what should you look out for in markets the next couple of weeks? Find out here.

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Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Positioning Watch – Volatility is back, but markets still lean into USD duration.. God knows why..

Volatility was more or less muted in the beginning of the year, but the cocktail of less dovish statements from Fed officials, strong economic data and the USD wreckingball has sent volatility in the other direction. Has it moved positioning? Not really, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not important.

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5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Liquidity turning, Labor Market, Commodities & China

The hawkish US CPI report today has the potential to wreak havoc with market narratives and place the Fed in a difficult position, while commodities are in a prime position to continue their run. Read about the 5 things we watch in global macro here.

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5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

5 Things We Watch – EUR-Inflation, Central Banks, The Business Cycle, Positioning & Commodities

Markets find themselves at a crossroads as the US economy is doing better than feared, while inflation is not acting the way the Fed hoped for. Meanwhile, European disinflation continues, which paves the way for larger divergences between central banks.

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Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Positioning Watch – Steepener bets back on?

Manufacturing sensitive assets have generally been outperforming broad-market benchmarks over the past weeks, despite some signs that the manufacturing boom could be short-lived. Some markets have started to agree, lowering exposure in both commodities and cyclical FX.

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