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Oskar Vårdal

Andreas Steno Larsen
Something for your Espresso – Bet on the Barrel

Something for your Espresso – Bet on the Barrel

Geopolitical risk is rising under Trump despite promises to the contrary, and combined with building reflationary pressures, it sets the stage for higher oil prices this summer. With the reflation theme still largely underpriced, we think now is a good time to lean into risk and accumulate exposure.

The Drill – Metals, Magnets, and Momentum

The Drill – Metals, Magnets, and Momentum

Oil is grinding higher despite bearish supply dynamics, while precious metals—from platinum to palladium—are breaking out of multi-year downtrends. With the US-China deal unlocking industrial stimulus and positioning still light, the stage is set for a broader reflation move led by commodities.

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Week at a Glance – The Inflationary Countdown Has Begun

Week at a Glance – The Inflationary Countdown Has Begun

Markets are treading water ahead of a potential US-China breakthrough, but reflation continues to build beneath the surface as we move closer to summer. This week’s bond auctions and CPI/PPI data offer a prime opportunity for bonds to set the direction higher, even with energy and shelter likely delivering one final soft CPI print before broader price pressures return.

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Steno Signals #200 – The Liquidity Boom That Nobody Expects

Steno Signals #200 – The Liquidity Boom That Nobody Expects

While markets broadly agree that some sort of re-acceleration in inflation will happen over the summer, the ongoing liquidity boom—driven by the fiscal deficit and private credit creation—has gone under the radar, and it will likely lead to new cycle highs in risk assets sooner rather than later.

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Something for your Espresso – Bet on the Barrel

Something for Your Espresso – The Bond Vigilantes Took Summer Off Early

Markets have stopped punishing deficits, even as auctions stumble. With fiscal fears fading fast, the focus has flipped to growth—and risk assets are responding. Metals are ripping, the USD setup is shifting, and soft data might not be soft enough to keep the cycle crowd calm.

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Something for your Espresso – Bet on the Barrel

Something for your Espresso – Markets Tune Out Tariffs, Tune Into Growth

Steel tariffs might make headlines, but markets are focused elsewhere. With services stabilizing, trade flows rebounding, and copper breaking out, the real story is a quiet but powerful reflation pulse building beneath the surface—just as fund managers remain underweight risk.

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Week at a Glance – The Inflationary Countdown Has Begun

Week at a Glance – From Bottlenecks to Breakouts

Markets opened the week on shaky footing, but beneath the surface, global trade is quietly improving, freight rates are screaming reflation, and macro bears may soon run out of ammo. With ISM Services, the ECB, and NFP on deck, the next few days could reshape sentiment—and cement a summer of upside.

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What We Told Hedge Funds: The road is cleared for all-time-highs

What We Told Hedge Funds: The road is cleared for all-time-highs

Markets are still underpricing the scale of the reflationary macro shift. Retail is all-in on the dip, but hedge funds remain stuck in doomsday mode. With CTAs cornered, tariff drama fading, and a reflationary tailwind building, the road to all-time highs may be clearer than most think.

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Week at a Glance – The Inflationary Countdown Has Begun

Week at a Glance – Fiscal Shell Game Keeps Bonds on Edge

Fiscal worries remain front and center—even as governments scramble to shift issuance down the curve. With inflation surprises rising and shipping data still stalled, risk assets need either a policy-driven jolt or an upside shock in growth to break out of their flatlining range.

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Something for your Espresso – Bet on the Barrel

Something for your Espresso – Higher Bond Yields Are Not a Risk-Killer

While equities and bonds usually move in opposite directions, we may now be in a regime where both rise together. Fiscal concerns are driving bond yields higher—but with U.S. corporates sitting on record cash balances, broad equities may be less sensitive to yields than in prior cycles.

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The Drill – Metals, Magnets, and Momentum

The Drill – The Commodity “Super”cycle

Copper is breaking out technically alongside other cyclical metals. And while there are plenty of compelling short-term reasons to be bullish on commodities, this is not the beginning of a new supercycle. Long commodities remains a tactical trade, driven by growth repricing and stretched positioning.

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Week at a Glance – The Inflationary Countdown Has Begun

Week at a Glance – Markets Ride the Goldilocks Drift While Japan Wobbles

With no major U.S. data releases this week, markets remain comfortably parked in Goldilocks mode—buoyed by easing financial conditions and hopes of a global rebound. But Japan’s disastrous bond auction and murky trade chatter hint at volatility brewing beneath the surface.

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Something for your Espresso – Bet on the Barrel

Something for Your Espresso – Is 2021 Back in the Cards?

The economy is quietly reaccelerating beneath the surface—tariff impacts delayed, credit creation strong, and inflation expectations under control. With trade tensions easing and sentiment improving, the conditions are lining up for a return of the 2021-style goldilocks environment.

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The Drill – Metals, Magnets, and Momentum

The Drill – When the Facts Change, So Do We

The bearish commodity stance is running on fumes, as the key drivers—trade barriers, a short-term USD repricing, and slowing growth—are all beginning to reverse. We’re likely staring into multiple trend shifts across asset classes. Position accordingly.

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Week at a Glance – The Inflationary Countdown Has Begun

Week at a Glance – We’re Likely in for Dovish Surprises, but Who Cares?

Both retail sales and inflation prints this week look incredibly soft relative to expectations—countering the recent wave of business cycle optimism following the new U.S.-China trade deal. But will the market even care about backward-looking economic data at this point?

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What We Told Hedge Funds: The road is cleared for all-time-highs

What We Told Hedge Funds: The Hated Equity Rally Has More Legs to Go!

No matter where you turn, strategists and analysts are calling the rally in risk assets overdone, arguing that the damage to the economy is already baked in. But as we’ve seen repeatedly, that damage keeps getting delayed by frontloading. And if trade deals are actually on the table soon (admittedly a big assumption), then the outlook is far more procyclical than what the IMF, Bloomberg, and others are currently expecting.

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The Drill – Metals, Magnets, and Momentum

The Drill – The Gold(en) Era Continues!

Growth remains tilted to the downside in our global model framework, signaling that we’re not yet out of the woods in terms of weaker commodity prices. Gold stands out as the only true bull case in this environment, as uncertainty continues to roar—and even when global trade “reopens,” credit will be created in size to cover losses.

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Something for your Espresso – Bet on the Barrel

Something for Your Espresso – The Bessent World Order?

Markets are pricing in trade deals as Bessent travels to Europe to kick off bilateral talks between the U.S. and China—potentially the ultimate go-button for the global economy. But as always, such deals take longer than expected. Meanwhile, markets must first navigate geopolitical tensions in India/Pakistan and a Fed meeting later today before breaking out the champagne.

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Week at a Glance – The Inflationary Countdown Has Begun

Week at a Glance – Trump Needs to Find the Needle in the Haystack… and Fast

While a weakening U.S. economy remains the base case until immediate trade deals materialize, opening up global trade with oil prices below $60 per barrel could trigger a major cyclical boom by late summer. The current rally in risk assets looks like a relief bounce for now—but could quickly turn into something more persistent.

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