Mikkel Rosenvold

As OPEC+ moves to increase production quotas – what are the real price drivers on the oil market and what does it tell us about the macro outlook?

Israel struck Iran’s core defenses in a rare window of opportunity. Iran’s weak response so far suggests limited escalation ahead—and low near-term risk for oil and markets.

The doom-loop in commodities is currently in place alongside an inflation narrative, but the demand side of the equation isn’t playing along—leaving the commodity outlook blurry after Liberation (and peace) Day.

With Liberation Day approaching, we take a closer look at the embedded tariff premia in commodity markets—and explore ways to trade the geopolitical landscape through commodities. Tune in!

The geopolitical interplay between the US, EU and China is intensifying, and it seems to revolve around Tech for now. What are the next steps from here in the race for AI, and what are the true intentions of the US and China?

We present our asymmetrical bets in commodities if we are approaching a more peaceful environment going forward.

When cutting out the Trump noise, there are very decent opportunities in both oil and gold on a trend basis backed by geopolitics!

We take a closer look at the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East with tensions and market risks at very high levels

Here’s a quick rundown of the most important geopolitical risks right now!

Risk assessment of the situation in Lebanon and Venezuela

Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race. President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most predictable thing in a completely unpredictable race so far. Now, as we discussed  yesterday, Kamala Harris is entering the race as an underdog, but a Trump landslide in November is far from a foregone conclusion. I would still put Kamala at around 30% chance of winning the White House – especially due to all the uncertainty of this election cycle. The next debate is not until September 10th. so even if polls don’t swing in Kamala’s favor, she still has that joker up her sleeve. Usually, we wouldn’t expect debates to swing elections massively, but one debate performance just killed the candidacy of an incumbent President, so never say never! Now, while we had some grasp on what a second term Biden or Trump presidency would look like, most investors are in the dark over what to expect should Kamala win in November. In this piece, That’s important for two obvious reasons – 1) what to plan for if she wins and 2) which sectors could see movement if/when polls temporarily or permanently swing in Kamala’s favor. So without further ado – here’s my five predictions on what Kamalanomics might look like. 1. A tourist at the helm The main point here is that Kamala is NOT an economics major and has very little experience in managing the economy. She is a lawyer and former Attorney General, […]

We cover the three recent elections and what they mean for investors and geopolitics

With Biden nosediving in polls, France’s far right party is surging in the First round of legislative elections. What will this mean for markets?

In our weekly geopolitical overview, we cover Israel-Hezbollah tensions, attacks on a beach in Crimea and an exciting political week ahead.

Tesla is emerging as the clear winner of the EU-China trade war so far – why is that? And why are markets so panicky over the French election?

What to make of China’s drills off Taiwan and Israel’s standoff with Egypt?

We cover the four most important geopolitical topics of the past week – Iran, Ukraine, Israel… and Congo!

Does the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu signal desperation or confidence from Putin? And why is Biden suddenly escalating the trade war with China?

Do we have peace or don’t we? What going on in Gaza and what game is Israel and Hamas playing? Plus: What is the strategy behind Xi Jinping’s European tour?

The US Congress has passed major new aid for Ukraine, but it might be to late. Here’s our assessment and thoughts on how you can prepare for when Ukraine loses

Undertanding Iran’s strike and what might come next – plus some potential solutions for the Red Sea crisis.