Mikkel Rosenvold

Mikkel is the lead author of The Great Game, our weekly editorial on geopolitics and global conflict. He is a former chief strategy consultant at PwC and Danish Ministry of Finance.
Andreas Steno Larsen
The Great Game – The Chinese Subscription Plan

De-Coupling or Detente? The Future of US-Chinese trade in the balance

For years, the US have struggled to find their footing vis-a-vis the new Chinese threat. We have seen countless attempts at “strategic pivots” and contructive meetings, but it’s no wonder if the Chinese are left with a feeling of confusion. What do the US actually want? What will be the next steps in Bidens “de-coupling” from China?

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CHINA WEEK: What does new 2023 growth targets signal about Xi’s priorities

CHINA WEEK: What does new 2023 growth targets signal about Xi’s priorities

China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), opened its annual meeting yesterday. The main highlight was the presentation of the new work report by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang which sets the 2023 fiscal targets for the Chinese economy. Later this week, Xi Jinping is expected to further consolidate his power with several high-profile appointments including the new Premier, vice-premiers, and the new governor of the central bank.

“LIAR!” – What did Biden’s State of the Union signal about upcoming debt ceiling negotiation

“LIAR!” – What did Biden’s State of the Union signal about upcoming debt ceiling negotiation

Tuesday’s State of the Union address gave little cause for optimism that a looming debt crisis in the U.S. can be avoided. Speaker Kevin McCarthy, seemed as powerless as the day he was elected and Biden certainly didn’t make his life any easier.

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Europolitics Watch #3 – A Continued European Surge?

Europolitics Watch #3 – A Continued European Surge?

European equities have seen an incredible start to 2023 on top of strong performance in late 2022. But European manufacturing and tech finds itself under pressure from massive public investments in both the US and China. What to make of the EU’s response and how is the outlook for Europe?

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U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off

U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off

On Thursday, the U.S. hits its 31.4 trillion-dollar debt limit. If Congress fails to raise or suspend the limit, the U.S. risks defaulting on its foreign debt with global economic ramifications. So naturally, Steno Research is launching a new ‘U.S. Debt Countdown’ watch series to keep tabs on when the U.S reaches the magic ‘X Date’: the day when The Treasury runs out of ‘extraordinary measures’ to postpone the worst-case scenario, and must succumb to default.

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The Great Game #8 – Is India the Next Super Power?

The Great Game #8 – Is India the Next Super Power?

Right about now, India surpasses China as the world’s most populous nation. Their demographics are clearly better than China’s with a much less rapidly shrinking birth rate and a better balance between the sexes. However, India is nowhere near the status of China in global affairs. What does India lack and how much will come in the coming years? We point to three areas where India need to (and will!) invest to become a truly global player: 1) Defense Industry India is the world’s largest importer of weapons. That is a testament to India’s major military build-up in recent years, but also reveals an important weakness – India can’t supply its own army, navy and air force with the hardware it needs. Modi’s grand ‘Make in India’ plan from 2014 did much to kick-start the Indian defense industry and companies such as Astra and Kamov have made great strides in recent years, India simply lacks the industrial capacity and know-how to produce the advanced weaponry needed to become a super power. To be even more to the point – India needs to be able to produce its own fighter jets, missiles and most importantly carriers and other capital ships.   One gamechanger in this weakness is the Indian ship manufacturing industry. We expect that sector to undergo a major expansion in coming years due to the Western oil embargoes on Russia. India is the logical candidate to fill the void – both in terms of buying the cheap Russian oil […]

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The Great Game #7 – German Panzers in Ukraine?

The Great Game #7 – German Panzers in Ukraine?

Whoa, what a week it has been in Ukraine. Russian calls for ceasefires, rumours about Putins imminent death and now the prospect of German Panzers rolling around Ukraine. Have we just entered 1943 and not 2023? And does the huge influx of Western armored vehicles change our outlook on the war?

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The Great Game #1 – China Re-opening?

The Great Game #1 – China Re-opening?

Welcome to a brand new series – ‘the Great Game’. In this space, you will find geopolitical analysis to complement our financial analysis in ‘Stenos Signals’. We kick off with a closer look at Xi’s China and their fierce lockdown regime.

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