As Xi meets Putin – what is the Chinese endgame? What are they hoping to gain from supporting Russia? And how is this connected to your Tesla? To understand that, we must understand the Chinese subscription model!
The Great Game: What to make of the Iran-Saudi Deal and Ukraine holding on to Bakhmut
Are the Chinese taking over management of the Middle East? Have Sweden given up on NATO? Why was I completely wrong about Bakhmut? Read all the answers in this year’s Great Game!
De-Coupling or Detente? The Future of US-Chinese trade in the balance
For years, the US have struggled to find their footing vis-a-vis the new Chinese threat. We have seen countless attempts at “strategic pivots” and contructive meetings, but it’s no wonder if the Chinese are left with a feeling of confusion. What do the US actually want? What will be the next steps in Bidens “de-coupling” from China?
CHINA WEEK: What does new 2023 growth targets signal about Xi’s priorities
China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), opened its annual meeting yesterday. The main highlight was the presentation of the new work report by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang which sets the 2023 fiscal targets for the Chinese economy. Later this week, Xi Jinping is expected to further consolidate his power with several high-profile appointments including the new Premier, vice-premiers, and the new governor of the central bank.
The Great Game – Pakistan’s Annus Horribilis
Later this year, Pakistan goes to the polls on top of what has been a right annus horribilis. What’s the outlook for the world’s only Muslim Nuclear Power and how will they solve it? We take a closer look at the three crises plagueing Pakistan.
Europe Wants To Get Paid – 5 Feuds To Look Out For
A gap has opened between European wages and prices over the past 12 months. This naturally leads to heightened expectation for collective bargaining agreements across the continent. We point you to the most important battlegrounds for 2023
The Great Game – Wang Yi and his Wish.com Weapons
What on Earth is China up to? We hear reports of them selling weapons to Russia and now top diplomat Wang Yi is touring Europe with a peace plan. Does he bring Wish.com weapons with him? Here’s our analysis!
Introducing ‘The Problem Index’ – Which Countries Have the Worst Demographics?
Which countries have the absolute worst demographics? How can we use demographic indicators to forecast financial and political trouble? Learn more in our brand new Demographics Watch series!
Nigeria goes to the polls – What will happen if Obi wins?
ONE WEEK until “The Most Important Election of the Year”. Young disenfranchised Nigerians hope that outsider, Peter Obi, can shake-up a Nigerian democratic system in decline. Will he win, and what would that mean for Africa’s most populous country?
“LIAR!” – What did Biden’s State of the Union signal about upcoming debt ceiling negotiation
Tuesday’s State of the Union address gave little cause for optimism that a looming debt crisis in the U.S. can be avoided. Speaker Kevin McCarthy, seemed as powerless as the day he was elected and Biden certainly didn’t make his life any easier.
Ukraine Has Lost the Initiative – 3 Key Predictions on What’s Next
Hopes are high in the West with Leopards soon being let loose in Ukraine. But we see a much darker time ahead for the Ukrainians. We deliver you our 3 current conclusions and 3 key predictions on what’s next.
The Great Game: Iran Under Attack – Our Quick Take
While still early days, it certainly seems like Iran is the target of a planned, organized wave of drone strikes. Is it a response to Friday’s attack on the Azeri embassy? Is it a US plot to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions? What’s the endgame?
Europolitics Watch #3 – A Continued European Surge?
European equities have seen an incredible start to 2023 on top of strong performance in late 2022. But European manufacturing and tech finds itself under pressure from massive public investments in both the US and China. What to make of the EU’s response and how is the outlook for Europe?
The Great Game #10 – Qurans for Fighter Jets?
Who would have thought that a single Danish alt-right incel burning a book in Stockholm would have geopolitical consequences? Well, that is 2023 for you!
Two New Words We Learned at Davos
The Globalization Elite is convening at Davos this week.. We see a lot of insight in two words rolling down from the Alps – “polycrisis” and “friendshoring”
The Great Game #9 – Will China attack Taiwan?
Will China attack Taiwan? What is the Davidson Window? When will it all go down? Read our take and prediction here
U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off
On Thursday, the U.S. hits its 31.4 trillion-dollar debt limit. If Congress fails to raise or suspend the limit, the U.S. risks defaulting on its foreign debt with global economic ramifications. So naturally, Steno Research is launching a new ‘U.S. Debt Countdown’ watch series to keep tabs on when the U.S reaches the magic ‘X Date’: the day when The Treasury runs out of ‘extraordinary measures’ to postpone the worst-case scenario, and must succumb to default.
The Great Game #8 – Is India the Next Super Power?
Right about now, India surpasses China as the world’s most populous nation. Their demographics are clearly better than China’s with a much less rapidly shrinking birth rate and a better balance between the sexes. However, India is nowhere near the status of China in global affairs. What does India lack and how much will come in the coming years? We point to three areas where India need to (and will!) invest to become a truly global player: 1) Defense Industry India is the world’s largest importer of weapons. That is a testament to India’s major military build-up in recent years, but also reveals an important weakness – India can’t supply its own army, navy and air force with the hardware it needs. Modi’s grand ‘Make in India’ plan from 2014 did much to kick-start the Indian defense industry and companies such as Astra and Kamov have made great strides in recent years, India simply lacks the industrial capacity and know-how to produce the advanced weaponry needed to become a super power. To be even more to the point – India needs to be able to produce its own fighter jets, missiles and most importantly carriers and other capital ships. One gamechanger in this weakness is the Indian ship manufacturing industry. We expect that sector to undergo a major expansion in coming years due to the Western oil embargoes on Russia. India is the logical candidate to fill the void – both in terms of buying the cheap Russian oil […]
Southern Hemisphere Watch #1 – The First Failed Lithium State
At the dawn of the EV-revolution, Bolivia is at risk of being the first failed lithium state. Is Elon Musk to blame? Find out in this article, where I also explain why Bolivian lithium is still a good bet for investors.
The Great Game #7 – German Panzers in Ukraine?
Whoa, what a week it has been in Ukraine. Russian calls for ceasefires, rumours about Putins imminent death and now the prospect of German Panzers rolling around Ukraine. Have we just entered 1943 and not 2023? And does the huge influx of Western armored vehicles change our outlook on the war?
Europolitics watch #2: The Tory Tragedy isn’t about division – it’s about defeatism
12 years of civil war in the Conservative party has trapped Rishi Sunak in a doom-loop between economic crisis and a defeatist Tory MP group. Will the 2024 general election clear the path for reform?
The Great Game #6 – European Gas Drought?
Will the new price cap drive Europe into gas shortages next winter? And how will Xi and Putin capitalize on this?
The Great Game #5 – China and the Anti-Western Axis
China’s recent deals with both Iran and Saudi Arabia should be a wake-up call for the West. Xi wants to position China as both the political and economical centre of gravity for the Global South.
Europolitics Watch #1 – The Big Breturn??
Fair warning: anyone believing that the UK is approaching more EU alignment has grossly underestimated the depths of mutual animosity and distrust that’s currently splitting the Tories from within
The Great Game #4 – The Bakhmut Bloodbath
What to make of the Russians making headway around Bakhmut and Ukraine striking deep into Russian hinterland? And what dilemmas await the West?
The Great Game #3 – Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish Circus Artist
Why is Turkey stalling the inclusion of Finland and Sweden into NATO? How long will they hold up the ratifying process? And should the Swedish PM, Ulf Kristersson, apply for a gig at Cirque du Soleil?
The Great Game #2 – Rise of the Turks
Forget all about the Saudi-Iran Cold War or the Palestinian question. The real agenda of the Middle East is the rise of the Turkic countries and the ascent of Turkey to Great Power status
The Great Game #1 – China Re-opening?
Welcome to a brand new series – ‘the Great Game’. In this space, you will find geopolitical analysis to complement our financial analysis in ‘Stenos Signals’. We kick off with a closer look at Xi’s China and their fierce lockdown regime.
Stenos Signals #3 – The bluff of a decade?
A lot of investors are rightfully scared that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. It almost never pays to bet on geopolitical turbulence and the current situation may prove to be a decent opportunity.