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Andreas Steno

CEO at Steno Research. Macro afficionado, investment analyst and Madridista. Host/Editor @ Real Vision. Hosting "The Macro Trading Floor" podcast @ Blockworks.
Andreas Steno Larsen
Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?

Large parts of the Mar’o’Lago Accord are actually progressing according to plan, despite poor implementation and widespread global outrage. China is now buying U.S. Treasuries due to the weaker dollar—precisely the intended endgame.

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The Drill – From Weak Oil to Weak Everything in Commodities in the Coming Weeks

The Drill – From Weak Oil to Weak Everything in Commodities in the Coming Weeks

While US growth is on the verge of tipping over, most commodities (ex oil) used as inputs in production haven’t flinched. We expect all commodities to swiftly realign with the business cycle over the coming weeks.

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Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies

As the supply chain has been nuked by the liberation day tariffs, while most signs point towards an “easing” of tensions during May, we see more and more analogies pointing to the lockdown/reopening playbook from Covid. Here is why!

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What We Told Hedge Funds: What If the Jay-Man Gets the Axe?

What We Told Hedge Funds: What If the Jay-Man Gets the Axe?

We’ve been all over the short USD trade this year, but the full scope of potential debasement still feels elusive. Trump is now openly floating the idea of firing the Fed Chair, while Waller seems to be holding his job interviews in public. Position accordingly.

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The Drill – From Weak Oil to Weak Everything in Commodities in the Coming Weeks

The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding

Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.

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Something for your Espresso: The double U-turn that left us in Goldilocks land

Something for your Espresso: Tim Cook is not sleeping under a rock

Apple pulled off monster tariffs front-running, and like other executives, Mr. Cook hasn’t been sleeping under a rock. Inventories have been loaded up in the U.S. at old price levels, preparing into a March 2020-style demand shock. Inflation (and yields) will drop for now.

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Something for your Espresso: The double U-turn that left us in Goldilocks land

Something for Your Espresso – A bizarre game of chicken

While U.S. growth is still souring, the Treasury market is starting to come under pressure to a degree that would normally prompt Fed intervention—just as it did during the SVB crisis with the BTFP program. But is there any reason for the Fed to act here? The answer is likely twofold—even if doing so is in their best interest.

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Week at a Glance – Is Waller the next Fed chair?

Week at a Glance – Hard Data Is Looking Incredibly Solid Into Very Soft Expectations

The slowdown in U.S. growth has so far been fairly isolated to trade and services data, which is why soft data has been weak while hard data hasn’t budged. When looking at domestic activity, the U.S. economy is still doing fine—for now. But is that something to cheer for?

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What we told hedge funds this week: Panic o’clock as Trump nukes the cycle

What we told hedge funds this week: Panic o’clock as Trump nukes the cycle

Trump has nuked the business cycle, and the wheels are coming off. Inflation is about to fall like a stone, and central banks will panic-ease soon—even if they won’t admit it. A decently strong NFP report paired with Powell’s speech was exactly what investors didn’t need.

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Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?

Steno Signals #190 – Is Europe and China still the havens in macro? Not so fast..

Europe and China have so far been the safe havens in macro, but we are seeing signs that the light is starting to shut here as well, which begs the question if you can even hide from the slowdown in growth by now? As per usual, we lay out our approach and trade recommendations here.

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Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?

Steno Signals #189 – The Perception vs. Reality of Inflation: A Growing Divide

The gap between surveyed/anticipated inflation and measured inflation has been widening rapidly in recent weeks. Are surveys accurately predicting what’s ahead, or is inflation actually trending lower? Let’s take a closer look.

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Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?

Steno Signals #188 – The Inflation Cry Wolf or a Big Wave in the Making!?

Everyone is certain that inflation is coming back in force due to tariffs, and while that is admittedly the straightforward conclusion, current live observations suggest a different picture. Could inflation surprise to the downside?

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