Now that Trump has abandoned the hardline stance on both trade and fiscal deficits, we are left with an incredibly bullish scenario through July/August. Enjoy!

Now that Trump has abandoned the hardline stance on both trade and fiscal deficits, we are left with an incredibly bullish scenario through July/August. Enjoy!
With all reciprocal tariffs now “paused” at lower levels, the next major battleground is inflation. Will inflation move lower, and will that allow for a further easing of financial conditions? Most likely, yes.
Large parts of the Mar’o’Lago Accord are actually progressing according to plan, despite poor implementation and widespread global outrage. China is now buying U.S. Treasuries due to the weaker dollar—precisely the intended endgame.
While US growth is on the verge of tipping over, most commodities (ex oil) used as inputs in production haven’t flinched. We expect all commodities to swiftly realign with the business cycle over the coming weeks.
As the supply chain has been nuked by the liberation day tariffs, while most signs point towards an “easing” of tensions during May, we see more and more analogies pointing to the lockdown/reopening playbook from Covid. Here is why!
Bessent managed to calm the markets with a strong speech yesterday, but the real question is whether he has reclaimed the keys to economic policy for good—or merely borrowed them for a few days.
Part of the logic behind the Trump administration’s policy is to weaken the USD—but is the project spiraling out of control? Is there a viable path toward a less USD-dependent global system? Let’s take a closer look.
We’ve been all over the short USD trade this year, but the full scope of potential debasement still feels elusive. Trump is now openly floating the idea of firing the Fed Chair, while Waller seems to be holding his job interviews in public. Position accordingly.
Powell just launched a high-stakes game of chicken between growth and inflation, while the ECB gears up for more easing as global trade freezes.
Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.
Apple pulled off monster tariffs front-running, and like other executives, Mr. Cook hasn’t been sleeping under a rock. Inventories have been loaded up in the U.S. at old price levels, preparing into a March 2020-style demand shock. Inflation (and yields) will drop for now.
Powell’s potential heir may be found in Waller, who surprised markets with a dovish pivot yesterday. The ECB and BoC now face the tariffs shock, and risk reacting too late as disinflation gathers pace.
Last week was one of the most challenging periods for the USD market in quite some time. Extreme policy uncertainty, combined with early signs that the US may pursue deals involving FX policy considerations, has made the USD appear increasingly vulnerable.
With the USD losing ground against all major peers, it’s time to ask yourself whether you’re sufficiently hedged against the ongoing debasement. It’s hard to envision a scenario that results in a stronger USD from here.
While U.S. growth is still souring, the Treasury market is starting to come under pressure to a degree that would normally prompt Fed intervention—just as it did during the SVB crisis with the BTFP program. But is there any reason for the Fed to act here? The answer is likely twofold—even if doing so is in their best interest.
The slowdown in U.S. growth has so far been fairly isolated to trade and services data, which is why soft data has been weak while hard data hasn’t budged. When looking at domestic activity, the U.S. economy is still doing fine—for now. But is that something to cheer for?
The price action on Friday started to resemble the lockdown-driven liquidity event of March 2020. Here’s your guide to assessing whether we’ve entered a similar liquidity event in the week ahead — a must-read.
Trump has nuked the business cycle, and the wheels are coming off. Inflation is about to fall like a stone, and central banks will panic-ease soon—even if they won’t admit it. A decently strong NFP report paired with Powell’s speech was exactly what investors didn’t need.
A weak NFP report is likely to trigger panic mode in front-end bond yields once again and force the Fed into action, despite its continued reluctance. In fact, there’s even a chance that the NFP could print negative today.
What are the consequences of the plan laid out by Trump yesterday? The U.S. dollar appears increasingly vulnerable, while global bond yields are likely to continue their downward trajectory in the near term.
The tide may be about to turn on several recent trends as we head into Liberation Day. Here are the four major developments we’re watching closely over the next 24 hours:
While Trump is barking, Vitalik is meowing, and markets remain skeptical of US assets versus the rest of the world. But Liberation Day may turn the tide on many of Q1’s dominant trends. Here’s why!
Economic textbooks would have you believe that inflation should spike in the U.S. and fall outside of it following the implementation of tariffs. But right now, it seems the opposite might be happening. Could that really be the case?
Europe and China have so far been the safe havens in macro, but we are seeing signs that the light is starting to shut here as well, which begs the question if you can even hide from the slowdown in growth by now? As per usual, we lay out our approach and trade recommendations here.
The BoJ remained exceptionally patient amid the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global trade. The Fed is likely to take the same approach. Why make a move now when a mountain of uncertainty looms ahead in prices?
Are we seeing a repeat of the 2024 springtime China optimism in metals, or is this year’s bullishness more well-founded? Meanwhile, oil risk premia are rising amid renewed tensions in Yemen, and big demands from Putin in the truce-talks.
The gap between surveyed/anticipated inflation and measured inflation has been widening rapidly in recent weeks. Are surveys accurately predicting what’s ahead, or is inflation actually trending lower? Let’s take a closer look.
Everyone and their mother expects inflation to pick up due to tariffs and while that is a natural conclusion, it may take at least 2-3 months from here and we may get very soft inflation data in the meantime! Position accordingly
The headline hockey from the White House is reaching extremes as even The Donald disagrees with himself intraday it seems. US equities will not find a bottom until calm is restored in the white house, while bond yields aim for 3.75%!
Everyone is certain that inflation is coming back in force due to tariffs, and while that is admittedly the straightforward conclusion, current live observations suggest a different picture. Could inflation surprise to the downside?