Now that Trump has abandoned the hardline stance on both trade and fiscal deficits, we are left with an incredibly bullish scenario through July/August. Enjoy!
CEO at Steno Research. Macro afficionado, investment analyst and Madridista. Host/Editor @ Real Vision. Hosting "The Macro Trading Floor" podcast @ Blockworks.
Steno Signals #196 – What’s next for inflation given the US/China pause?
With all reciprocal tariffs now “paused” at lower levels, the next major battleground is inflation. Will inflation move lower, and will that allow for a further easing of financial conditions? Most likely, yes.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?
Large parts of the Mar’o’Lago Accord are actually progressing according to plan, despite poor implementation and widespread global outrage. China is now buying U.S. Treasuries due to the weaker dollar—precisely the intended endgame.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
The Drill – From Weak Oil to Weak Everything in Commodities in the Coming Weeks
While US growth is on the verge of tipping over, most commodities (ex oil) used as inputs in production haven’t flinched. We expect all commodities to swiftly realign with the business cycle over the coming weeks.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies
As the supply chain has been nuked by the liberation day tariffs, while most signs point towards an “easing” of tensions during May, we see more and more analogies pointing to the lockdown/reopening playbook from Covid. Here is why!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: How long is Bessent behind the wheel?
Bessent managed to calm the markets with a strong speech yesterday, but the real question is whether he has reclaimed the keys to economic policy for good—or merely borrowed them for a few days.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #194 – A Mar-a-Lago Accord- or Meltdown?
Part of the logic behind the Trump administration’s policy is to weaken the USD—but is the project spiraling out of control? Is there a viable path toward a less USD-dependent global system? Let’s take a closer look.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
What We Told Hedge Funds: What If the Jay-Man Gets the Axe?
We’ve been all over the short USD trade this year, but the full scope of potential debasement still feels elusive. Trump is now openly floating the idea of firing the Fed Chair, while Waller seems to be holding his job interviews in public. Position accordingly.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: A game of chicken between unemployment- and inflation
Powell just launched a high-stakes game of chicken between growth and inflation, while the ECB gears up for more easing as global trade freezes.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding
Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Tim Cook is not sleeping under a rock
Apple pulled off monster tariffs front-running, and like other executives, Mr. Cook hasn’t been sleeping under a rock. Inventories have been loaded up in the U.S. at old price levels, preparing into a March 2020-style demand shock. Inflation (and yields) will drop for now.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Week at a Glance – Is Waller the next Fed chair?
Powell’s potential heir may be found in Waller, who surprised markets with a dovish pivot yesterday. The ECB and BoC now face the tariffs shock, and risk reacting too late as disinflation gathers pace.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #193 – The USD reset is underway
Last week was one of the most challenging periods for the USD market in quite some time. Extreme policy uncertainty, combined with early signs that the US may pursue deals involving FX policy considerations, has made the USD appear increasingly vulnerable.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
What we told Hedge Funds: The USD-debasement bet is ON!
With the USD losing ground against all major peers, it’s time to ask yourself whether you’re sufficiently hedged against the ongoing debasement. It’s hard to envision a scenario that results in a stronger USD from here.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for Your Espresso – A bizarre game of chicken
While U.S. growth is still souring, the Treasury market is starting to come under pressure to a degree that would normally prompt Fed intervention—just as it did during the SVB crisis with the BTFP program. But is there any reason for the Fed to act here? The answer is likely twofold—even if doing so is in their best interest.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Week at a Glance – Hard Data Is Looking Incredibly Solid Into Very Soft Expectations
The slowdown in U.S. growth has so far been fairly isolated to trade and services data, which is why soft data has been weak while hard data hasn’t budged. When looking at domestic activity, the U.S. economy is still doing fine—for now. But is that something to cheer for?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #192 – A March 2020 style reset. Is this a liquidity event?
The price action on Friday started to resemble the lockdown-driven liquidity event of March 2020. Here’s your guide to assessing whether we’ve entered a similar liquidity event in the week ahead — a must-read.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
What we told hedge funds this week: Panic o’clock as Trump nukes the cycle
Trump has nuked the business cycle, and the wheels are coming off. Inflation is about to fall like a stone, and central banks will panic-ease soon—even if they won’t admit it. A decently strong NFP report paired with Powell’s speech was exactly what investors didn’t need.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Panic o’clock approaching
A weak NFP report is likely to trigger panic mode in front-end bond yields once again and force the Fed into action, despite its continued reluctance. In fact, there’s even a chance that the NFP could print negative today.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: This is NOT reciprocal – USD meltdown
What are the consequences of the plan laid out by Trump yesterday? The U.S. dollar appears increasingly vulnerable, while global bond yields are likely to continue their downward trajectory in the near term.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Your complete Liberation Day guide!
The tide may be about to turn on several recent trends as we head into Liberation Day. Here are the four major developments we’re watching closely over the next 24 hours:
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #191: Meowing at Robots Ahead of Liberation Day!
While Trump is barking, Vitalik is meowing, and markets remain skeptical of US assets versus the rest of the world. But Liberation Day may turn the tide on many of Q1’s dominant trends. Here’s why!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Flash Inflation Watch: What if everyone is wrong on inflation (in the US)?
Economic textbooks would have you believe that inflation should spike in the U.S. and fall outside of it following the implementation of tariffs. But right now, it seems the opposite might be happening. Could that really be the case?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #190 – Is Europe and China still the havens in macro? Not so fast..
Europe and China have so far been the safe havens in macro, but we are seeing signs that the light is starting to shut here as well, which begs the question if you can even hide from the slowdown in growth by now? As per usual, we lay out our approach and trade recommendations here.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: While we are waiting for Godot (and tariffs)
The BoJ remained exceptionally patient amid the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global trade. The Fed is likely to take the same approach. Why make a move now when a mountain of uncertainty looms ahead in prices?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
The Drill: China to the commodity rescue?
Are we seeing a repeat of the 2024 springtime China optimism in metals, or is this year’s bullishness more well-founded? Meanwhile, oil risk premia are rising amid renewed tensions in Yemen, and big demands from Putin in the truce-talks.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #189 – The Perception vs. Reality of Inflation: A Growing Divide
The gap between surveyed/anticipated inflation and measured inflation has been widening rapidly in recent weeks. Are surveys accurately predicting what’s ahead, or is inflation actually trending lower? Let’s take a closer look.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Are we finally caving in to soft-flation?
Everyone and their mother expects inflation to pick up due to tariffs and while that is a natural conclusion, it may take at least 2-3 months from here and we may get very soft inflation data in the meantime! Position accordingly
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Something for your Espresso: Donald the Flip Flopper
The headline hockey from the White House is reaching extremes as even The Donald disagrees with himself intraday it seems. US equities will not find a bottom until calm is restored in the white house, while bond yields aim for 3.75%!
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Steno Signals #188 – The Inflation Cry Wolf or a Big Wave in the Making!?
Everyone is certain that inflation is coming back in force due to tariffs, and while that is admittedly the straightforward conclusion, current live observations suggest a different picture. Could inflation surprise to the downside?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here