The last NFP report caught markets’ attention with payroll data beating expectations massively on the upside, shuffling Fed pricing and showcasing a labor market that is far from done.

The labor market is not exactly the easiest part of the economy to grasp, as you need to aggregate multiple different surveys and data points from different sources, which sometimes can diverge greatly from each other, leaving us with the job of pointing out the correct data from the other. We’ll try our best to do that today. 

One of the hot market surprises recently was the beat in job openings, beating expectations on the high side. But that was only on an aggregate level, and when you look into the report itself, flaws arise. 

The only sector holding the job openings report up is “Professional & Business Services”, which has admittedly 500k open job positions, while other sectors such as transportation and tech keep taking employees off the payroll list. Could be a correct picture of the job market, unless…

Chart 1: JOLTS decomposed