Asian FX weakness is back, and the USD/Gold correlation has turned positive. This begs the question: How does it rhyme with the continued surge higher in gold, and has something fundamentally changed?
Portfolio Watch: The real world is reflating again
Our portfolio cheers on the broadening commodities rally! We delve into the risks and opportunities of this surge, its reflationary impact on strategic allocation, and present our convictions going forward.
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Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?
Korea has, by first-hand experience, been a sell-side favorite, and the Kospi has been on a roll recently. Some leading cyclical indicators have started to turn however, and the question is then whether to book some profits in the region?
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Something for your espresso: Manufacturing on a roll (almost) globally
Manufacturing is on a roll globally, and the case for continued Chinese pick-up was emboldened during Easter. Is the strong US unequivocally good news though? Inflation is not done and dusted!
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Reflation Watch: Has Japan turned a page, and have markets gotten ahead of themselves?
The BoJ delivered a historical hike – its first in 17 years – last week. Does this mark the turning point for Japan for good, or do risks still linger?
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Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however
China has been in the limelight recently, and the attention from clients match the evident rotation in managed positioning. While tremendously yielding, we’ve decided to de-risk in metals but keep overall cyclical exposure.
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Something for Your Espresso: China move confirmed!
The crossroads for the Chinese economy we highlighted earlier in the week has been decided (at least intermediately) with the recent JUMP in Li Keqiang. Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed.
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Chinese Momentum: Driving Markets or a Crowded Consensus?
China’s vehicle of choice in achieving its growth targets has long been real estate. With RE still in shambles, will manufacturing be the stand in, and has the market in fact crowded out the China case?
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Portfolio Watch: Markets sniffing out the Chinese resurgence case
The commodity cycle is healing, but overall trends are more lukewarm. Interesting whether this is the market sniffing out something related to the manufacturing cycle in China? Either way, we have been positioned appropriately.
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Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia
Japan has reemerged as a feasible investment these last years, but is the driving force of this performance ebbing, as China returns to the table? A look at the relative winners and losers if China in fact is returning.
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US CPI Reaction: Headache for Powell not so much markets
Hot on the heels of today’s awaited US CPI report, we offer our rundown of the most noteworthy figures. Safe to say the Fed wasn’t helped along in achieving their target.
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Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green
The cyclical rotation keeps rolling, and recent comments affirmed in our view that the Fed will allow the economy to reflate here. We caught on early and continue to reap great gains.
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EM Stimulus Showdown: From Beijing with Boost to EM?
As indicators point to pro-cyclical US manufacturing trends, emerging markets are poised to catch the wave of economic momentum. We take a closer look at EM sensitivities and potentialities in this early tide.
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Macro Regime Indicator: MORE liquidity is coming
Just as we identified in last month’s regime – and as our asset allocation model predicted -, risk assets have indeed performed. Question is if they will continue to. As always, we present our model framework on how to structure your portfolio.
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EM Cycle Watch: South Korea a good buy?
Amidst some EARLY resurgence in China and signs of cyclical rebound, South Korea looks increasingly compelling. Could this convergence of factors signal a strategic entry point into South Korea’s manufacturing and AI-focused market?
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China Watch: Trading the latest rate cut stimulus
Was Tuesday’s aggressive stimulus just the PBoC’s latest desperate attempt, or was it in fact enough to get the distraught property sector and broader economy back on track? Our interpretation of the mixed signals here.
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5 Things We Watch: UK & US CPI, Gaza, JPY, and Banks
The US CPI dealt a harsh blow to risk assets and those betting on disinflation, yet the trend of easing price pressures persists globally, as highlighted by the latest UK inflation report out this morning. Discover more in our “5 Things We Watch” below!
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Macro Regime Indicator: Time to embrace a new economic dawn?
With beyond robust US economic growth, the interplay of growth, inflation, and liquidity takes center stage. How will this persuasive expansion shape the inflation trajectory and inform structural asset allocation strategies?
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Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?
The Japanese Nikkei 225 has, apart from yesterday’s move lower, been on a streak of strength since the turn of the calendar. So, with its Asian peer on the ropes and the toned down remarks from members of the BoJ regarding inflation, is the index a buy from here?
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US Inflation Watch: Methodology Matters – Upside surprise in PCE according to CPI?
CPI, PPI, HICP, or PCE? The inflation measures are plenty and each best serves different purposes. However, the varying methodologies and emphases on components prompt clearly deviating prints – AND allow for logical predictions.
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Macro Regime Indicator: What technically rising liquidity means for your portfolio
Markets keep celebrating bad news, but are they right or wrong, and can the current macro regime give any explanation on these recent developments? As always, we assess liquidity, inflation and growth to ultimately showcase our model’s allocation suggestions.
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Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?
A softer than anticipated CPI print – spot on our forecast – lit the fuse for a rally in equities following a rally in bonds. Whether yields eased for the right reasons remains unclear. Read along as we dissect the moves, our performance and consider our allocations going forward.
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US CPI Reaction Nugget: Further fuel for the market rally
Highlights and initial thoughts on today’s print as well as our considerations on the path ahead.
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Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy long in cyclical FX
Just as most tabloid models forecasted a near-0% chance of a recession within the next year, markets reacted in stark contrast. Can the recent broad based selloff and the following and current rally be explained by developments in liquidity, inflation, or growth?
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Trade alert: Cashing in on great performers
It’s important to ride ones’ winners, but we think it is time to cash in on these three very profitable trades. Meanwhile, we add exposure in fixed income.
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ECB Bank Loan Survey Nugget: Tight supply and even less demand
Today we had the Bank Loan Survey from the ECB, and the numbers say a great deal. Gloomy worries leave Euro Area banks hesitant about providing or extending credit, but, just as telling, demand is nowhere to be seen. Our main takeaways here.
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US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?
Treasuries have tumbled as 10- and 30-year yields touched their highest in 16 years. Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps steaming ahead. Is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds or will supply surmount demand, and can the USD extend its streak of strength?
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5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel
While tension keeps mounting in the Middle East, we’ve decided to broaden the global macro-horizon. From rising pressures in Japanese policy and the preceding Asian currencies to monetary trends in EUR and USD, and everything in between. We break down this week’s most noteworthy developments.
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CPI Reaction Watch: Cementing a hike in November/December?
A small upside surprise in today’s CPI report led by energy and shelter, while broad commodities, transportation and food prices continue to disinflate. A nothing burger or something to worry about? Read our take here.
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Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?
Markets have acted out of sync with fundamentals for a while, but can the latest weakness across most markets be explained by developments in either liquidity, inflation, or growth?
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