Last week we tried to assess where in the cycle we’re currently at and whether the recession risks were receding. In this sequel, we’ll take a look at how various asset classes perform during hikes, pauses, and cuts respectively. Hold on your cheer for cuts maybe…
Inflation in the word recession? Some have stubbornly called for a doomslike recession while others see the economy firing on all cylinders. Our data-based weigh in on the topic.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) intended to deliver both an expedited ‘green’ transition as well as a +$300 bn deficit reduction. But, what are the measurable effects circa a year later?
While liquidity was on everyone’s lips 6 months ago, the net effects have been somewhat benign. Meanwhile, PMIs and inflation seem to be running the show. It appears that services are weakening coincidently with manufacturing showing strength. Board or aboard cyclicals then?
A brief nugget about today’s headline Ifo numbers. We’ll release an article about the full report next week.
‘When China sneezes the West catches a cold’. We’ve said that before, but who is really most reliant on a well-functioning Chinese economy? Europe is now clearly the next shoe to drop. Could long cyclical Asia vs short Cyclical Europe be a strong RV trade?
What’s up in energy markets, will European inflation be below 2% before year-end, should we expect trouble to hit US real estate and how about the Yuan and its implications for global markets? Our two cents here.
Amidst continued unease in the Chinese economy and with Evergrande having just filed for Chapter 15 protection, we’ve decided to take a closer look at the state of US real estate. Trouble to come or in fact time to buy?
The economic activity in goods manufacturing has been contracting since October 2022 according to the ISM reports, but contrary to the latest figure (46) select indicators hint of a possible cyclical rebound.
Just in: A brief account of today’s US CPI report.
Emergency lending facilities provided by the Federal Reserve, and the BTFP in particular, relieved banks in distress and helped them stay afloat, but are the same risks still lurking or has the need for funding eased?
Large parts of the stock market have rallied recently, and whispers of a new bull market are steadily surfacing. Has the time come for caving in to bulls, or are we just seeing the results of impatience after 1,5 years of limbo?
As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through 5 selected themes in the macro which we follow closely and summarize how we interpret them – this week spanning from today’s FOMC meeting to Swedish real estate.
With the upcoming Fed meeting later today, we have sat down and looked at how assets perform when the Fed pauses, which is likely going to happen sooner rather than later.
Another great week for the Steno Research portfolio! Read along as we dissect the performance and consider our allocations going forward.
An agreement on lifting the statutory debt ceiling has been made, and the treasury general account now has to be replenished by issuing new debt. What does that imply for financial markets, and is the outlook as bleak as some pundits claim?
The U.S. and Japanese equity markets present a contrast in earnings expectations, driven by differing economic conditions and monetary policies. Will the optimism for U.S. earnings growth last, and has the immense influx of capital to Japanese markets overbid fair value?
Several US regional banks fell victim to the waning confidence from depositors who ultimately pulled the plug. Are European banks really safeguarded by better legislation, or are we taking comfort in a false sense of security?
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
Areas of the economy are showing increasingly worrying tendencies, and some are outright caving in. Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, we decided to take a closer look at the state of US equities and whether the defensive rotation was due – or if one were better off leaving the table entirely…
The term inflation has merged from academia to layman’s vocabulary. The question is whether it’s time to shelf the term or if it remains as relevant as ever. We look at forward-looking indicators and try to pass judgment – this time on Europe.
Though this last week has furnished fewer fires, global macro currents never truly rest. With banking stress and troubled commercial real estate idling, we eye a window for us to turn our attention elsewhere.
The unwavering strength of the labor market has backstopped the probability of a classic recession, but is data now finally beginning to show what we have all predicted?
As the banking stress has waned in news value, commercial real estate has taken over the baton. In this article, we’ll try and sort fact from fiction and wisen up on what is really moving beneath the surface.
Japan remains a MUST watch as a risk taker in the West. With the potential scrapping of the YCC policy and the recent recall of capital to domestic markets, could this be a potential time bomb for Western markets? Here is how we monitor the situation.
With the banking turmoil fading a bit, we thought we’d turn some of our attention elsewhere. It’s not like there is a lack of things to cover in global macro. Once again, we present our timeliest findings and assess how to interpret them.
The recent turbulence in the banking system has been for the history books. It may have cost the lives of some banks on both sides of the pond, but has the situation finally dialed down? We turn to our timeliest gauges on the deposit flight crisis and weigh up how to position for it.
What a couple weeks! Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well. Triggered by a casino in disguise, the troubles have for now been backstopped, but is further distress lurking beneath the surface?
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
In this somewhat unusual edition of the ‘Positioning Watch’ we’ll take a look at relevant and readily available data to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Maybe this can provide further insight into the ambiguity which we have experienced in markets lately.
