Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead. 

The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our CRUD position with a significant profit.

Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.  

The surge in commodity prices has expanded noticeably, extending beyond the initial spikes in assets like oil, copper, silver, and gold. OPEC’s efforts to maintain high prices have had a ripple effect, influencing a more diverse set of commodities. 

Data shows that 70% of the commodities tracked in the S&P GSCI index have posted gains year-to-date, and the index itself has sharply moved into positive territory. 

Chart 1: Commodity momentum is broadening