Areas of the economy are showing increasingly worrying tendencies, and some are outright caving in. Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, we decided to take a closer look at the state of US equities and whether the defensive rotation was due – or if one were better off leaving the table entirely…
The term inflation has merged from academia to layman’s vocabulary. The question is whether it’s time to shelf the term or if it remains as relevant as ever. We look at forward-looking indicators and try to pass judgment – this time on Europe.
Though this last week has furnished fewer fires, global macro currents never truly rest. With banking stress and troubled commercial real estate idling, we eye a window for us to turn our attention elsewhere.
The unwavering strength of the labor market has backstopped the probability of a classic recession, but is data now finally beginning to show what we have all predicted?
As the banking stress has waned in news value, commercial real estate has taken over the baton. In this article, we’ll try and sort fact from fiction and wisen up on what is really moving beneath the surface.
Japan remains a MUST watch as a risk taker in the West. With the potential scrapping of the YCC policy and the recent recall of capital to domestic markets, could this be a potential time bomb for Western markets? Here is how we monitor the situation.
With the banking turmoil fading a bit, we thought we’d turn some of our attention elsewhere. It’s not like there is a lack of things to cover in global macro. Once again, we present our timeliest findings and assess how to interpret them.
The recent turbulence in the banking system has been for the history books. It may have cost the lives of some banks on both sides of the pond, but has the situation finally dialed down? We turn to our timeliest gauges on the deposit flight crisis and weigh up how to position for it.
What a couple weeks! Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well. Triggered by a casino in disguise, the troubles have for now been backstopped, but is further distress lurking beneath the surface?
5 Things We Watch: Fed rhetoric, Chinese rebound, Chinese inventories, US labor market and a record-breaking yield curve inversion
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
In this somewhat unusual edition of the ‘Positioning Watch’ we’ll take a look at relevant and readily available data to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Maybe this can provide further insight into the ambiguity which we have experienced in markets lately.
What to do when COT-data is delayed? Here is a ‘special edition’ of our weekly ‘Positioning Watch’ covering recent fund flows in major ETFs in various asset classes. How do people really feel about the latest movements in markets not least given the absurd economic data released this week?
Saturday is here, and we hope that you all have a great weekend. Meanwhile, Saturday also means fresh CFTC COT data, so while we endorse you to kick up your feet, we’ll present to you our updated dashboards on positioning across asset classes and highlight the peculiarities that catch our eyes.
While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.