Hot on the heels of today’s awaited US CPI report, we offer our rundown of the most noteworthy figures. Safe to say the Fed wasn’t helped along in achieving their target.
Something for your Espresso: May back in Play?
Inflation from the US and UK take center stage. May back in play for both?
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Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
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USD Inflation Watch: Softer than recently seen – May back in play!
With revisions out of the way, we can look forward to the US CPI report on Tuesday. Everything points towards a softening and a May cut should be back in focus!
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Something for your Espresso: A day of revisions and reckonings
We are approaching make or break territory for early spring cuts from the ECB and the Fed. Revisions to CPI numbers will play a crucial role in the coming days.
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Inflation Watch – How are markets pricing inflation in 1 year?
Option premiums allow one to derive risk-neutral probabilities for the underlying security at expiry. How are these probabilities looking for USD, EUR- and GBP inflation?
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US Inflation Watch: Methodology Matters – Upside surprise in PCE according to CPI?
CPI, PPI, HICP, or PCE? The inflation measures are plenty and each best serves different purposes. However, the varying methodologies and emphases on components prompt clearly deviating prints – AND allow for logical predictions.
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5 things we watch: US recession, US inflation, Euro Inflation, PCE vs CPI, STIR pricing
This week’s 5 things we watch with hot topics. This week we’ll cover US recession talks and financial conditions. We’ll also hone in on both US and European inflation and finally talk rates expectations.
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CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?
We are growing increasingly convinced that we will not see a single print of 2% or lower in the US CPI in this cycle. Despite a cyclical de-acceleration, the sticky components keep the CPI too high and beneath the hood cyclicality is returning.
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UK CPI Watch – A deflationary shock?
Markets are expecting a re-acceleration in November’s inflation number tomorrow with expectations at 0.1% vs 0.0% in October. What do our models tell us, and what should we expect? Our thoughts and findings here.
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Inflation Watch: Another deflation shocker from Europe? UK, Sweden and Norway are under the loop!
Another set of soft inflation numbers is set to be released from Europe in the coming weeks. We see both GBP and NOK inflation surprisingly low for November, while Swedish evidence is a tad more mixed.
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5 things we watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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UK CPI Watch: No path to 2% unless inflation deflates on a monthly basis
The UK CPI report will be put under scrutiny tomorrow morning after “hot” wage numbers released earlier today. The report is likely going to look very soft, but there is still a long way to go until 2% is reached.
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EUR Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise in the making
We see between 0.20-0.25%-points lower inflation in the Euro area than the consensus and the first evidence is already gathering in Germany. Expect EUR inflation to be below target by March-2024 at the very latest.
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Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!
The BoJ will have to revise the inflation forecasts UP again later this month ultimately signaling that inflation will be above 2% for the next two years. Global bond markets should start to care about the BoJ again!
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Macro Nugget: Is the UK Prepared for the Winter?
There is no shortage of depressing data coming out of the UK in recent quarters. The question is whether we’ve seen the worst of stagflation. Maybe, but be careful what you wish for
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Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?
Rising manufacturing PMIs, sticky labour markets and re-accelerating services inflation in some categories. Have we all underestimated the risk of the Fed continuing on a path of higher(er) for longer again?
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CPI Reaction Watch: Cementing a hike in November/December?
A small upside surprise in today’s CPI report led by energy and shelter, while broad commodities, transportation and food prices continue to disinflate. A nothing burger or something to worry about? Read our take here.
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CPI watch: 6 charts on a soft’ish inflation report
The US inflation report is likely to look soft and risks are on the low side of consensus estimates, especially for core inflation. The medium-term issue is that our indicators hint of a bottom above 2%.
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5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
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Something for your Espresso: Energy not yet a consensus bet, being short Europe is..
Energy keeps performing against all peers and it seems like positioning is still underweight despite the recent bullishness. European positioning is getting short, but data keeps backing up that view.
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Inflation Watch: A bottom above 2%? 10 charts on USD inflation
The Fed is likely to conclude that the cocktail of rising headline inflation and dropping core inflation is enough for a skip, but by refusing to act on emerging renewed price pressures, they will likely let the market do the dirty work!
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Something for your Espresso: USDCNY is now the global bellwether (again)
The panic will subside if the PBoC manages to defend the 7.30 handle in USDCNY. Could we reach “peak China panic” during today’s trading? We look forward to it alongside the FOMC meeting minutes in our morning report.
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Inflation Watch – Here’s why EU inflation will get back to target faster than US inflation
In this short note we go through why EU inflation is likely to get back to target faster than US inflation due to technical differences in the way of measuring inflation.
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11 charts on US CPI: Hotter headline and weaker core? An odd steepener cocktail
Here is our chart-deck on the US CPI report on Thursday. A soft core paired with a hotter headline? It looks like an odd- and rare steepener cocktail to us.
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Something for your Espresso: The confusing flexibility of the BoJ
A weaker JPY paired with higher JGB yields and a steeper curve. The JPY markets are sending mixed signals but maybe the whole purpose of the BoJ policy was to leave markets uncertain on the direction of travel.
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Something for your Espresso: Producer deflation and a cyclical rebound
Most recent trends point to a combo of outright deflation in the producer leg paired with short-term cyclical optimism. It almost sounds too good to be true given what we have been through. Hello, Goldilocks (for the time being).
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5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation
This week our primary focus is the current business cycle, where we try to figure out which stage we are in, and what outlook different asset classes are pricing in. Today’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’ is no exception.
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Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 more likely than <130 in USDJPY
With the recent move in swap rates and the JPY, we have once again looked into Japan to find out when BoJ will do something about their policy and if the Yen is a viable option for your portfolio. JPY looks more like a sell than like a buy here.
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Brief Inflation Watch: Smack dab at our soft forecast!
Just in: A brief account of today’s US CPI report.
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