USD Inflation Watch: Softer than recently seen – May back in play!
Welcome to a short and sweet preview of the US CPI report on Tuesday.
The revisions for 2023 came in just a few moments ago, and they barely moved the needle. But December was revised down a tad, in contrast to what one should have expected given the pattern seen. For December 2023, the NSA number was 0.21% above the SA number, which is 0.03-0.04%-points less than usual, but yet they revised the number down in the updated seasonal adjustment factors.
For the first time in a while, we have a forecast/nowcast below the market consensus ahead of the CPI release. The CPI surprised on the up in November and December, and we had those above forecast releases correct.
We see January CPI at 0.14% MoM in headline terms and 0.23% MoM in core terms, which is 0.1%-points below consensus in rounded figures.
Chart 1: Our CPI accuracy relative to the market (table shows deviation from actual CPI)
With revisions out of the way, we can look forward to the US CPI report on Tuesday. Everything points towards a softening and a May cut should be back in focus!