We knock on the door to a week with yet another US CPI release- this time revised:
The revision we received today proved not to be the unpleasant surprise everyone feared given the 2023 revision and Waller & Powell both having flagged it and as a result, our expectations of a soft print remain unchanged- for elaboration see here.

While it might feel like we’re repeating ourselves, our belief in the USD and US risk assets being the best options out there hasn’t budged. That said, we’ve been tossing around a few ideas and topics internally over the last week:

Markets haven’t continued the dramatic price movements since last Friday’s (some might label as “fake” see here) NFP blowout, but it’s noteworthy that short-term expectations are significantly outstripping those further along the curve.

Chart 1: 1y breakeven vs 5y