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5 things we watch: US recession, US inflation, Euro Inflation, PCE vs CPI, STIR pricing

This week’s 5 things we watch with hot topics. This week we’ll cover US recession talks and financial conditions. We’ll also hone in on both US and European inflation and finally talk rates expectations.
2024-01-17

1) No US recession without a tightening of financial conditions 

The beginning of the year has seen the rates market continue to dovish pricing of the future curve leading to financial conditions loosening throughout January. History tells us that there hasn’t been a recession over the last 30 years without a tightening of financial conditions and with easier conditions we should expect growth to rebound rather than nosedive. 

Chart 1: No recession without tighter financial conditions

This week’s 5 things we watch with hot topics. This week we’ll cover US recession talks and financial conditions. We’ll also hone in on both US and European inflation and finally talk rates expectations.

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