5 things we watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income
This week we start out by looking at Trump’s chances of getting reelected then move on to European electricity markets after that we’ll discuss yesterday’s CPI print before moving on to crude oil and then ending with fixed income positioning.
This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro:
1) 3 REASONS WHY TRUMP WILL WIN – AND 1 REASON HE WON’T
President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges. The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime. An approval rating of 41.0 is disastrous. Donald Trump was at 43.8 at this point in 2019 with rising trends heading into the 2020 elections, and he still got beaten handily at the polls.
To make matters worse, the heir apparent, Kamala Harris is polling at just 36.3, which basically makes her unelectable at this point. This is a huge concern – especially since 77% of Americans are skeptical of Joe Biden’s age, which will most likely be the pivotal campaign subject for 2024. With Biden’s designated successor beginning to look even less popular, that’s a very complicated outlook for the re-election campaign.
To read more about the rest of the reasoning see here: GREAT GAME
Chart 1: Biden dropping behind in the polls