Ahead of a couple of big inflation weeks, we look into the details of the UK, Swedish, and Norwegian CPI here. Despite some signs of rapidly rising electricity prices, the overall picture will likely look soft and especially recreation and culture prices have the potential to surprise markedly on the downside.

We overall see continued trends towards strong disinflation in Europe and the global surprise index on inflation looks transitory. But there are diverging underlying trends in Europe and the US. Let’s have a look at the details.

Chart 1: Inflation surprises at least proved transitory