We add to our cyclical rotation, while we take profit in our very profitable tech bets.
EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?
The latest US CPI data clearly indicates that inflation in the US is not yet defeated. With interest rate cuts anticipated further down the line here is our perspective on EM’s
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Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
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EM by EM #42 China could do with a cold Turkey
While all the hype in EM is about China these days, we are healthy skeptics. We’d like to see Beijing adopt a more structural approach to truly win us over, similar to what they’re doing in Turkey
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Positioning Watch – Spread-trading the way through the current environment
Rate cuts have been pushed a bit back by central bankers as economic data keeps surprising, but price action doesn’t truly reflect the dynamics we’ve been used to through 2022 and 2023. How should you play the current environment?
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Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
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Inflation Watch – How are markets pricing inflation in 1 year?
Option premiums allow one to derive risk-neutral probabilities for the underlying security at expiry. How are these probabilities looking for USD, EUR- and GBP inflation?
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Positioning Watch – Markets betting on lower rates and higher oil prices
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?
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Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
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EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps
As we conclude a busy midweek with loads of matter to digest in a global macro we will this week attempt to make an odd synthesis between the recent events in China its importance for price action and how we look at it going forward and Trump’s success in New Hampshire and how we are currently framing the 2016 campaign in the context of the EM space
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Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?
The path to 2% has proven to be more difficult than anticipated, and the disinflation-trend is now potentially starting to turn in the US. Are markets positioned accordingly?
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Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put
Powell had his fun in December and now Yellen is preparing her next move. Here is how we play it
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Positioning Watch – Where to find value currently
The risk aversion theme for 2024 continues as data is starting to go against consensus, and the question for 2024 will be where to find true value in asset markets. A couple of thoughts and charts on that here.
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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
While we’ve persistently underscored the risks of intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and enduring inflation in the US, it’s evident that politics serves as the unifying factor behind both. Read how we are playing this environment below!
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EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023
We, just like Goldman Sachs and many others, have been caught off guard in China over the past year. Here’s why
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EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the beast alive
With investor sentiment through the floor in China, we take a look at the policy tool kit for 2024. Is China set for a rebound or will the sentiment remain stuck in the abyss?
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Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus
On the back of a Fed meeting markets have been partying like there is no tomorrow. We assess the recent moves in positioning and reflect on how we see markets move leading into 2024
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Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the name of the Game
With Central bank bonanza week in the rearview mirror, we reflect on the state of current pricing and reveal how we like to be positioned. Read our full Portfolio Watch below!
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EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling
After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality
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5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB
With central banks on duty again this week, we share our thoughts on rate decisions, updated projections and how to play it, before the meetings. Enjoy
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Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
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Portfolio Watch: How we play the last FOMC meeting of 2023
We have made adjustments to our portfolio in preparation for the FOMC decision week,. Read our full take of the current macroeconomic landscape and see our new positions below
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EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?
Forward curves continue to trend lower in the US and Eurozone. The early adopters are leading the way, but perhaps Yellen’s spending spree will pose another challenge for her EM colleagues. We have taken a look at potential receiver/steepener cases in EM space.
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Positioning Watch – Everything better turn out the way markets want it
Equity markets are as bullish as they were in 2021, while fixed-income markets continue to price Fed cuts in for Q2-2024. Are there reasons to worry about current market positioning? Find out here.
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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?
We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
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EM by EM #32: Keep calm & Carry Lira?
Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
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Positioning Watch – All about the soft landing narrative
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
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Portfolio Watch: The last dance?
We have taken the unpopular decision of being net long USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning below
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Positioning Watch – Positioning for lower yields and weaker USD
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
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EM by EM #30 Pick-up from King Carry?
China is still in a state of crisis but perhaps recent dove-vibe in the US could sustain the run of some of the 2023 FX winners? Read our take below
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