Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster
What a week we’re wrapping up here, and it’s safe to say that things have been quite tumultuous!
QRA started us off with a clear implicit surprise by the Treasury as they lowered its expected issuance target from last quarter, which was a point fairly validated by today’s Jobs report, which came in smoking hot.
We are still digesting the current print and are wary of accepting the SA adjustments as well as the initial data at face value, but we are much aligned with what can be derived from the surface of it all:
Don’t bet against the US or bleed away on bets on a cyclical collapse and don’t draw hard conclusions on January seasonal adjustments. On a trend basis, we remain puzzled by the lack of major divergence in the ECB versus Fed pricing since the cycles are miles, if not universes, apart.
Chart 1: NFP Monthly Change
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility