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ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?

ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?

We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?

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5 Things We Watch – UK Rates, OPEC, US Manufacturing, ECB & Portfolio

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?

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5 Things We Watch – UK Rates, OPEC, US Manufacturing, ECB & Portfolio

5 Things We Watch – Governor panel discussion, EU Fragmentation, Riksbank, EU Banks & The EM rate cycle

It’s Wednesday, and that calls for us to dissect 5 topics that we follow in Global Macro currently. What to expect from today’s panel discussion between governors? How is it going with the ongoing fragmentation of Europe? And will Riksbank hike 50bps like Norge’s bank? Find out here.

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Something for your Espresso: An (almost) explicit pause from the ECB?

Something for your Espresso: The gullible BoJ

Bank of Japan plans on openly discussing the YCC before changing it as core inflation measures continue to intensify. Meanwhile, the EUR shrugs off bad news as the Sintra conference commences.

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EUR watch: Why the ECB outlook is 100% off in 4 charts

Euro Watch: A conflict of interest emerging between ECB and Italy

With Lagarde and her companions taking a semi-hawkish stance recently, Italy is in a difficult position as funding possibilities are narrowing in front of their eyes. They need somebody to buy their govies, while the ECB wants to tighten policy further. Follow along in today’s piece, where we dive into the details of the Italian government and its debt problems.

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Out of the box #3 – Italian banks the first domino?

Out of the box #3 – Italian banks the first domino?

While everyone is looking at Europe for safety we are taking the other side of the trade. The unbalances of the Eurozone haven’t gone away and with inflation & dark clouds on the horizon, we question whether an indebted fragmented economy can hold fast as the economic winds turn unfavorable. Lagarde is running out of bullets and fiscal ammunition is in short supply

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Good morning, America: The hiking cycle is over #2

Good morning, America: The hiking cycle is over #2

Goldilocks data keeps coming from the US economy, while the ECB rhetoric hints of the hiking cycle potentially already being over. Here are our take-aways. The steepening will CONTINUE as the cycle is (almost) over.

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