The EUR-inflation numbers will be helped lower by substantial base effects while we see weakness spreading across services-inflation. The bottom will likely be found in Nov or Dec at levels close to the target.
Something for your Espresso: An (almost) explicit pause from the ECB?
The ECB seems closer to softening up than the Fed even if they delivered a hike yesterday. An almost explicit pause was promised in the written statement. ECB pricing for 2024 looks ODD compared to Fed pricing still.
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EUR watch: Why the ECB outlook is 100% off in 4 charts
We consider the ECB assumptions to be off and see a much “weaker” ECB commitment going forward compared to the Fed. Here is why the ECB is off in 4 charts!
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5 Things We Watch – UK Rates, OPEC, US Manufacturing, ECB & Portfolio
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our weekly edition of 5 Things We Watch, where we take you through the 5 things we are currently keeping an eye on in the global macro landscape.
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EUR Watch – The ECB will soon reveal their true inflation vs growth preferences
We dive into the challenges ECB are (still) faced with, as headline inflation is likely to rebound from November and onwards, giving the ECB another – but bad – argument to keep policy restrictive. A hike seems like a done deal tomorrow, but what about the path for 2024?
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Something for your Espresso: Energy not yet a consensus bet, being short Europe is..
Energy keeps performing against all peers and it seems like positioning is still underweight despite the recent bullishness. European positioning is getting short, but data keeps backing up that view.
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ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?
We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?
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EUR Inflation Watch – It’s all about energy and food
With the inflation report coming out this Thursday, we of course provide you with an actionable take on the path for EZ HICP and whether now might be the time to buy euro bonds
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Euro area watch: 7 charts on the ECB and EUR-inflation
The ECB is closer to pausing than the Fed and the clear headline mandate may allow the ECB to throw in the towel on the hiking cycle earlier than peers. Tomorrow’s inflation data is key. Here is our chart-package.
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Consumer Watch: Is the FED & ECB nudging the same herd? 5 charts we watch
We’re skeptical of the “data-dependent” rear-view mirror approach by the FED & ECB. Refuting to provide guidance is one thing but are they listening to their crowds and acknowledging the differences?
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Something for your Espresso: Powell is gaining confidence, while Lagarde is losing it..
The Fed is getting increasingly confident that they can orchestrate a soft landing as the recession is no longer a base-case for them. Meanwhile, ECB and Christine Lagarde are losing confidence by the week.
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5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit
It’s central bank week again, and that of course means that we provide you with all you need to know ahead of the big meetings. Recent inflation numbers have pause written all over it, but will central bankers keep their hawkish tone?
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Credit Watch: The credit contraction has arrived… 5 charts from the ECB credit survey
The credit contraction is already a reality in Europe and the Q3 ECB Credit Survey confirmed that a contraction is the most likely scenario for H2-2023. There are early signs of improvement, which means that we may get an outright rebound into 2024.
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Something for your Espresso: Central bank bonanza week with pause all over it
The big three central banks meet this week and we find a 25bp hike given for both the Fed and the ECB with limited forward guidance due to a lack of updated projections. It will prove to be an outright shocker if the BoJ moves the needle this week.
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Credit Watch – Why European Housing is likely going further south
With the recent drop in house lending in the Eurozone, we take a closer look at how exposed European consumers and corporations actually are to further interest rate hikes. A teaser: It doesn’t look particularly great.
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EUR Liquidity Watch – How well are depositors protected? Italy with the largest bill to pay (again)
The deposit guarantee scheme requires all banks to pay a yearly fee to local DGS funds to reach a preset target. But what countries are missing their targets, and who will have the hardest time at year-end?
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EUR inflation watch: 7 charts on EUR inflation ahead of the June CPI report
Base effects will be harder to beat in June than in May, but we see increasingly compelling signs of a sharp disinflation in Europe over the next 3-5 months. Here is a chart deck on the trends we find most interesting to watch in EUR-flation
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5 Things We Watch – Governor panel discussion, EU Fragmentation, Riksbank, EU Banks & The EM rate cycle
It’s Wednesday, and that calls for us to dissect 5 topics that we follow in Global Macro currently. What to expect from today’s panel discussion between governors? How is it going with the ongoing fragmentation of Europe? And will Riksbank hike 50bps like Norge’s bank? Find out here.
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Something for your Espresso: The gullible BoJ
Bank of Japan plans on openly discussing the YCC before changing it as core inflation measures continue to intensify. Meanwhile, the EUR shrugs off bad news as the Sintra conference commences.
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ECB Watch: 4 charts to watch on the ECB pricing
Now that the dust has settled after last week’s ECB meeting, we look at the four charts that are likely to guide the ECBs decision-making process over the summer. July and done?
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Something for your Espresso: One thing is certain – ECB sources!
The ECB members agree on a hike in July, but September is still in doubt after what may have been the most hilarious update to staff projections in recent years. Rear-view mirror policy-making continues.
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Something for your Espresso: Will the Fed convince markets that this is not a pause?
The Fed is not on pause. That is at least the message they try to convey to markets, but data will decide, and we have no concrete guidance on the path ahead. A well-orchestrated pause has an embedded hiking bias.
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Something for your Espresso: The FDIC remains worried, while China is bouncing..
Was it too early to burry the Chinese rebound? Manufacturing is now showing signs of life. Meanwhile, the FDIC sounds worried about the health of the US banking system in their quarterly report. Expect a stinker in the ISM Manufacturing report today.
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Euro Watch: A conflict of interest emerging between ECB and Italy
With Lagarde and her companions taking a semi-hawkish stance recently, Italy is in a difficult position as funding possibilities are narrowing in front of their eyes. They need somebody to buy their govies, while the ECB wants to tighten policy further. Follow along in today’s piece, where we dive into the details of the Italian government and its debt problems.
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Out of the box #3 – Italian banks the first domino?
While everyone is looking at Europe for safety we are taking the other side of the trade. The unbalances of the Eurozone haven’t gone away and with inflation & dark clouds on the horizon, we question whether an indebted fragmented economy can hold fast as the economic winds turn unfavorable. Lagarde is running out of bullets and fiscal ammunition is in short supply
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Something for your Espresso: A pause is now the base-case
A pause is now the clear base case. The regional banking stress is now more equity/credit driven than deposit driven, which will be harder to backstop for the FDIC and the authorities. Will the ECB sound dovish?
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Something for the Espresso: More hiccups or will JPOW & Lagarde sleep tight?
We suspect both Powell and Lagarde to be content with today’s releases but perhaps the cycle fools everyone again?
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Something for your Espresso: The last hike in this cycle?
We expect the Fed to deliver the last hike in this cycle, while the ECB is likely to deliver a dovish hike on Thursday. A big week ahead for central banks!
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Good morning, America: The hiking cycle is over #2
Goldilocks data keeps coming from the US economy, while the ECB rhetoric hints of the hiking cycle potentially already being over. Here are our take-aways. The steepening will CONTINUE as the cycle is (almost) over.
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Something for your Espresso: Is the ECB even aware of the banking crisis in the US?
The US inflation print yesterday would have been a CLEAR 50bp data print, but markets and we remain convinced that the credit event will force the Fed to rethink. The ECB is, on ther other hand, not awake yet.
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