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Consumer Watch: Is the FED & ECB nudging the same herd? 5 charts we watch

We're skeptical of the "data-dependent" rear-view mirror approach by the FED & ECB. Refuting to provide guidance is one thing but are they listening to their crowds and acknowledging the differences?
2023-07-27

As we conclude this week’s Central Bank Bonanza, we believe it is pertinent to share some of the soft data charts we are closely monitoring while assessing the outlook for the upcoming quarters. The wisdom of the crowds, often overlooked, can offer an interesting perspective for financial markets currently processing the latest rate decisions. In the coming days, we plan to offer a more comprehensive take as to how we see things going in the coming quarters and how we would choose to ideally play it.

While many analysts may have held a more cautious stance, we have maintained a relatively positive outlook on the US economy. Nevertheless, we cannot overlook the remarkable resilience displayed by the Eurozone assets, especially considering the consistently disappointing and worrisome data that has been released.

Chart 1: Economic Surprise Index

We’re skeptical of the “data-dependent” rear-view mirror approach by the FED & ECB. Refuting to provide guidance is one thing but are they listening to their crowds and acknowledging the differences?

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