Morning from Europe

The coronation of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for President continued through ‘Super Tuesday’ yesterday, which saw a number of Republican primary elections. Trump won all states except Vermont and effectively crushed whatever hope might have remained in the Nikki Haley campaign.

Haley has lost the patience of several key donors and it’s questionable how long she can keep a serious campaign going. She has, however, used the campaign to build a network of donors and nationwide name recognition which could prove valuable assets in future races, most notably 2028. Furthermore, Haley has positioned herself as the “heir apparent” if Trump for some reason is unable to run for the general election even if that seems increasingly unlikely.

Looking ahead to the General Election in November, Trump commands a solid lead over President Biden. In a recent Bloomberg poll, Trump leads six key battleground states (excluding Michigan) by 4-9%-points, which increases to 6-10%-points if potential independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy junior is added to the line-up. This is currently the biggest threat to the Biden campaign since Kennedy Jr. is polling well among young voters and minorities. This means that he will siphon more votes from Biden than Trump, which could prove decisive in the American “first-past-the-post” system come November.

Chart 1: Polls with and without RFK on the ballot