Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
Happy Tuesday to everyone from a freezy Copenhagen, where temperatures in Northern Europe finally get to test the natural gas markets. Before we get to that, we first have our OPEC preview.
The strong US data seasonality into year end could wreak havoc with the current early Santa Rally in cyclicals. We are on high alert for a hawkish reaction function in December.
Price always leads the narrative and the oil bears were very vocal last week. That is typically a good timing to consider a counter trade as we have done so far with good luck. Here is why!
Sudden sharp moves against the USD after Powell let go of the monetary steering wheel. Will the Fed take back control or has the USD already peaked? This is the key question in global macro before New Years.
Either oil rebounds here or else we probably have to accept that this is one of the steep declines in demand that we cannot explain in real time – also known as a recession. We are at a critical juncture and markets don’t care.
The latest EIA report once again shows that September was just a data glimpse, and that oil demand is still going relatively strong in the US. Long oil a bet for the last month of 2023?
Most of the signals from our models hint that the weakness through October was a data glimpse and that 2023 will end on a strong seasonal note before a weak 2024. Either we are right or else recession is looming.
Happy Monday to everybody and welcome back to another Energy Cable. On the back of the last week’s of tension in the Middle East we thought we would do a bit of thought-provoking argumentation for a potential US-Saudi deal which we have dubbed “The Riyadh Accord”.
Every week we adjust the demand side data in the EIA report for the noise of seasonality and methodology issues. Our view that October would show a strong rebound compared to September has been proven correct, except in Nat Gas.
It is increasingly impossible to dissect what is going on in financial markets from what is taking place on the Geopolitical scene. Read below for our full take on the latest events
While tension keeps mounting in the Middle East, we’ve decided to broaden the global macro-horizon. From rising pressures in Japanese policy and the preceding Asian currencies to monetary trends in EUR and USD, and everything in between. We break down this week’s most noteworthy developments.
Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved. What are the probable implications for oil, and how about natural gas given the winter ahead and Europe’s dependence?
Ok, probably a bit of a baity headline since gasoline demand probably never left the building, except that the EIA weekly data suggested as much. That conclusion is now off the table again after yesterday’s figure, but now the weakness has moved to oil markets. Is that fair?
This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
The monthly report from OPEC and the weekly report from the EIA are both out later today. A day of reckoning for oil markets and we see a decent risk/reward in betting on a price bullish surprise.
A big inflation day is ahead with focus on energy markets. The EIA- and OPEC will release reports as well. Expect a dovish vibe in the CPI but new positivity around oil and gasoline.
We are walking a tightrope with war, high energy prices and recessionary risks. Is the market pricing congruent or does market pricing suffer from cognitive dissonance here?
Oil, USD and rates are up on the back of the increased Geopolitical risks. Will the fundamentals back up a continued move in that direction over the week?
Public deficits are running wild, while the risk of another war that needs ongoing funding is growing. US households have net bought loads of US Treasuries, but will they continue in light of ongoing disappointments?
As we review the events of this eventful week, it unfortunately appears to conclude with a tragic development, as we find ourselves reporting on the potential beginning of yet another conflict.
The EIA report shocked oil and gasoline markets and the big question is whether the weak demand is a harbinger for the broader US economy.
The weekly EIA report revealed seasonal weakness in the demand for Gasoline, but how big of a deal is it? We have taken a deep look at the numbers and only have one word available. “Ouch!”
We know the playbook from last year if the energy squeeze is just getting started. Rising demand/activity in the energy-intensive industry is a negative for the overall asset market in regions with scarce supply. Parity up next?
The USD wrecking ball haunts again and several Asian Central Banks now actively intervene. The issue is that the USD is not the trigger of this move. Energy is.
Is the oil bull market about to become old hat? We are turning our attention to Natural Gas and Uranium to find value in energy markets. Find out why here!
Russia has cut off its diesel exports – but why? What’s the big plan and how will it affect support for Ukraine?
With the recent surge in oil prices due to supply constraints, we highlight the contrasting market impact in the US and the Eurozone. Our Monday Macro Nugget available below
Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and díscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!
