Something for your Espresso: From a USD-wreckingball to an Oil-wreckingball
Morning from Europe.
We received a very soft inflation reading from North Rhine Westphalia at 0.2% MoM (below consensus) this morning.
We release our full preview of the EUR-flation numbers starting to come in over the course of the day here (we see clear downside to EUR-flation this month).
IFO price expectations keep pointing to normalized expectations for selling prices 3-6 months ahead in Germany and that is in sharp contrast to the US where we have seen similar surveys rebounding since the summer.
There are signs of a cyclical uptick in German / European goods prices as well, but we are not scared of such until December/January as the disinflation momentum seems to have the upper hand in other price categories.
Chart 1: IFO price expectations remain relatively benign
The USD wrecking ball haunts again and several Asian Central Banks now actively intervene. The issue is that the USD is not the trigger of this move. Energy is.
0 Comments