Something for your Espresso: From a USD-wreckingball to an Oil-wreckingball
Morning from Europe.
We received a very soft inflation reading from North Rhine Westphalia at 0.2% MoM (below consensus) this morning.
We release our full preview of the EUR-flation numbers starting to come in over the course of the day here (we see clear downside to EUR-flation this month).
IFO price expectations keep pointing to normalized expectations for selling prices 3-6 months ahead in Germany and that is in sharp contrast to the US where we have seen similar surveys rebounding since the summer.
There are signs of a cyclical uptick in German / European goods prices as well, but we are not scared of such until December/January as the disinflation momentum seems to have the upper hand in other price categories.
Chart 1: IFO price expectations remain relatively benign