Filter by Categories
Oil Risks War

Something for your Espresso: Geopolitical risk premiums on the rise

Oil, USD and rates are up on the back of the increased Geopolitical risks. Will the fundamentals back up a continued move in that direction over the week?
2023-10-09
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

0

Morning everyone.

USD/Oil/Rates open a bit firmer after the atrocious scenes in Gaza/Israel over the weekend. 

We have taken a look at the numbers from the last five instances of turmoil in the area:

1) Oil up 80% of the time

2) Yields up immediately in 80% of instances but calm down

3) USD mixed, but since the Oil/USD correlation has flipped a strong USD makes sense now 

We generally prefer not to trade/allocate on the back of short-term Geopolitical events, but our Political team will of course follow this situation closely over the next hours.

Chart 1: Oil tends to rally when Israel gets involved in Gaza

Oil, USD and rates are up on the back of the increased Geopolitical risks. Will the fundamentals back up a continued move in that direction over the week?

Get access / Login

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]