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EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
2023-10-12

Ukraine/Russia, Armenia/Azerbaijan, and now Israel/Palestine (Hamas) – not to mention the simmering tension in Serbia/Kosovo and the situation with Taiwan – 2023 has unfortunately witnessed a surge in conflicts and distress.

The looming risk of a significant regional conflict stemming from the Middle East crisis currently casts a shadow over the IMF meeting in Marrakech. It’s a poignant analogy, considering that Marrakech itself recently endured a devastating earthquake, reflecting the challenging state of global affairs.

If the Israelis could settle with “looming risks” they would probably snap the hand off anyone offering it. To accompany the bloodshed taking place by the Gaza border, the Shekel is taking a beating and the Bank of Israel is as much in a state of crisis management as the newly appointed Netanyahu administration

Chart 1: USDILS 12 month fwd

This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?

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