Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable. I got caught up in the hospital with my son late yesterday, but everything is fine now!

What a week for OPEC! Sources in OPEC + leaked that Russia and Saudi Arabia were in agreement to delay the meeting due to issues around some other producers (Which made us laugh hard given Russia’s own export numbers compared to their quotas). 

We have had a look at OPEC production and export numbers and it seems like production is much more price-bullish than actual net exports (meaning a draw on local OPEC inventories)

Interestingly, the US, Nigeria, Iran, and UEA (among others) have managed to fill a lot of the production gap left open by Saudi Arabia.

Overall production has increased by more than 0.7 million barrels a day compared to a quarter ago. This outcome doesn’t align with the Saudis’ initial expectations. It appears that they, like us, have been taken aback by the robustness of the U.S. supply

Chart 1: Production Overview