The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan Our price models are deteriorating under the surface. The oil and gas bull market is probably not around the corner. We look at risk/reward in the energy space in the context of the recessionary vibes stemming from the...
The Energy Cable #10: Is the risk/reward turning in energy space?
Risk reward may be about to turn for parts of the European energy space after a land-slide in prices in recent quarters. Will margins increase this spring again? Let’s have a look at the details, while we wait for more data in oil space.
The Energy Cable #9: Putting inventories into perspective
Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.
The Energy Cable #8: How China uses the SPR to counter energy trends
China actively uses its reserves to fight price trends and currently BOTH the US and China release reserves simultaneously. This is more than enough to counter Russian production cuts. Here is why!
Commodities Watch – What commodity super cycle?
The Chinese reopening has possibly been the most covered topic since its announcement in late 2022 – at least in financial circles. The awaited lifebuoy for the global economy, which the reopening consensually was thought to be, has yet to truly show up in prices of commodities essential in manufacturing. We prefer to stay long Industrial Metals (mainly Copper) relative to Energy.
Nigeria goes to the polls – What will happen if Obi wins?
ONE WEEK until “The Most Important Election of the Year”. Young disenfranchised Nigerians hope that outsider, Peter Obi, can shake-up a Nigerian democratic system in decline. Will he win, and what would that mean for Africa’s most populous country?
The Energy Cable #7: Is Russia back in the driver’s seat in energy markets?
Is Russia back in the driver’s seat after the supply cut announced late last week? If China adds demand, while Russia cuts supply, it may be a bullish cocktail for energy.. But so far the truly bullish price action remains to be seen.
The Energy Cable #6 Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up!
Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up! Here is the latest “Energy Cable” update on Natural Gas, Oil – and the overall energy complex with price signals and model based predictions. The only publication to cover this sector across geographies and asset classes. Enjoy!
Trade idea: The REVERSE tax bomb for NOK – Buy USDNOK or EURNOK
Norges Bank is once again caught behind the curve in its FX management policy due to the landslide in Natural Gas prices. Unless Norges Bank immediately stops selling as many NOKs per day, the NOK selling pressure is likely going to continue.
The Energy Cable #3 – Does technical analysis work for oil?
We have taken a look at technicals in the oil market. Is it voodoo or magic? We also update our price signals for oil and natural gas. Time to buy? Enjoy!
Steno Signals #25 – Is there any energy left in the energy trade?
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
Steno Signals #21 – 3 reasons why everyone, Zuckerberg, me, and their dogs turn into idiots when rates are 0%
In my base-case, we are going to see a double-top inflation picture, but I sincerely hope that we don’t resummon our inner financial illiterates, if rates drop towards 0% due to temporary disinflation
Steno Signal #18 – The winners and losers of energy nationalism in Europe
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.