Gold is ripping, copper’s crumbling, and oil’s caught in a geopolitical crossfire — with policy chaos from D.C. to Tehran shaping every tick. The manufacturing hangover is just beginning, and the market’s favorite safe haven is now a political statement.
While the world is busy guessing who will win this election, we’re here scratching our heads over what the story for oil will be in the coming months. Will the Saudis flood the markets after the election?
The local demand in China remains on the floor, which is an issue for the broad commodity bet with China typically being the largest net consumer. China is exporting a lot, but they are not (yet) raising prices. It may eventually arrive and we remain on PPI Watch accordingly.
The very mechanical rate path setup of Norges Bank allows us to track the rate path live, and in sharp contrast to elsewhere, it looks like we are ripe for another hawkish revision of the path in September.
The highly systematic rate path setup of Norges Bank allows us to track the rate path live. In sharp contrast to other regions, it appears that we are poised for another hawkish revision of the path in September.
The curve has bear steepened for a couple of days and while it may be tempting to blame an upcoming Trump presidency, the explanation can also be linked to the business cycle. Will Powell re-open the insurance cut door today?
The positioning is very negative in energy markets, which looks like a decent contrarian signal to us. We continue to like energy (both oil and Nat Gas) versus metals into July.
The OPEC group continues to keep the supply of oil artificially low, but the big question is now the demand side of the equation. This OPEC policy is bullish, if the demand side keeps improving.
The front-month Copper bet has been extremely popular in recent weeks/months, but is the Copper market being run over by a bus full of tourists or by an actual increase in the demand in the global economy? All roads lead to Shanghai!
After a couple of months with continued supply chain pressures, steady trade volumes and no price action, it seems like we finally got a reaction in freight rates. Meanwhile, the Saudis are gearing up for a new oil market rally.
The reflation will likely continue as long as Powell and his ilk keeps an implicit dovish bias intact. Energy markets will likely remain bid, but the broader commodity story seems more interesting to play than oil at these levels.
Are Israel and Iran headed for war? We give our analysis and paint out the most likely scenario.
This week we hone in on the consequences of the Ukraine’s successful attacks on Russian refiners and how to play it along with some thoughts on our profit taking in metal space as something BIG is cooking in China!
The Chinese moves toward larger fiscal deficits may be helpful for the energy- and industrial metal cases, but we still lack confirmation from the actual manufacturing cycle globally. Could the commodity complex be the macro case of 2024?
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
Is Nat Gas suddenly the cheapest macro asset on earth? Natural Gas prices are through the floor, which dynamics have improved in the oil space. Let’s have a look at it.
Last week we were close to writing our obituary on our crude oil long position and this week we are almost back in green. The last few weeks in crude have surely been something!
We are approaching make or break territory for early spring cuts from the ECB and the Fed. Revisions to CPI numbers will play a crucial role in the coming days.
There are early signs that Political risks have plateaued in the Oil space and US military retaliations may not be as escalatory as portrayed by many media outlets. Read our week’s geopolitics take below!
Buy the fear and sell the hype is our overarching mantra in EM these days. Read how below!
Are Iran and the US headed for war? What steps lay ahead of us? And how could it spill over in to oil prices and inflation?
The Red Sea crisis contagion is spreading to the energy space. With signs of stress emerging in Energy Markets, we have entered a timely long as positioning remains light despite the ongoing Red Sea debacles.
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and it wouldn’t surprise us to see spill-overs to the energy space by now. Here is an update on the situation!
The shipping situation keeps worsening with some early spill-overs to the energy space. It remains to be seen whether tankers will be redirected to the extent seen with containers, but the risk remains elevated.
Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!
Have Shipping companies suddenly made a deal with the Houthis? It sounds unlikely to us, and we will address why in this Suez Special of our Energy Cable publication.
The Red Sea tensions are growing amidst very soft inflation numbers. Is the duration rally at risk of being derailed?
Tensions are clearly on the rise in the Red Sea with fatal stand-offs over the New Years weekend. The most recent satellite photo evidence suggests that supply chain disruptions are material but manageable. Will the Houthis propel energy- and transportation costs again?
The weekly EIA numbers keep surprising with extremely strong energy demand, while USD liquidity is about to soar further. Interesting cocktail, which is not necessarily disinflationary in the US in 2024.
Our demand-based models on oil are through the roof and the demand has been exceptionally strong from a seasonal perspective in December. Is the narrative of a weak energy demand wrong?
The oil price has made a “sneaky” comeback over Christmas amidst the global duration/receiver party. Time to hedge duration bets in energy space?
