We know the playbook from last year if the energy squeeze is just getting started. Rising demand/activity in the energy-intensive industry is a negative for the overall asset market in regions with scarce supply. Parity up next?
Something for your Espresso: From a USD-wreckingball to an Oil-wreckingball
The USD wrecking ball haunts again and several Asian Central Banks now actively intervene. The issue is that the USD is not the trigger of this move. Energy is.
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The Energy Cable #39: A Maturing Bull Market
Is the oil bull market about to become old hat? We are turning our attention to Natural Gas and Uranium to find value in energy markets. Find out why here!
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The Great Game: Why Russia is Really Cutting Diesel Exports
Russia has cut off its diesel exports – but why? What’s the big plan and how will it affect support for Ukraine?
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Macro Nugget: Why the price at the pump matters for inflation expectations
With the recent surge in oil prices due to supply constraints, we highlight the contrasting market impact in the US and the Eurozone. Our Monday Macro Nugget available below
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Steno Signals #66: Buckle up for the energy crisis 2.0
Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and díscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!
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Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?
The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
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5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
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Something for your Espresso: Biden sippin’ luxury OJ in the SPR trial balloon?
Did the Biden admin send up a trial balloon on the SPR strategy without major success? Meanwhile, energy- and foodflation sadly continues across traded markets. It will not be an easy afternoon for the Fed.
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Positioning Watch: Energy is not (yet) a consensus
Betting against Europe is becoming increasingly popular, but the energy trade is yet to become overcrowded. Here is the weekly positioning report.
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The Energy Cable #37 – The good old fossil fuels are back in business
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
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EM by EM #20 Another energy squeeze in the cards?
Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
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Out of the Box #18: Time for the second inflation wave? AAAAAAH!
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
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Energy Watch: Can oil rally 25% further in Q4?
There is a sudden smell of 2021/2022 in the air again as Muftis and Zars suddenly have the upper hand in energy markets again. Can Bin Salman make life difficult for the West in Q4?
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The Energy Cable #36 – Will we finally see Chinese demand with the new stimulus?
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
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The Energy Cable #34 – Double top…now what?
Is the Chinese malaise an issue for energy bulls? Let’s have a look at market fundamentals and price action amidst the ongoing melt-down in Chinese construction.
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The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals
Happy start to the week everybody, hope you have had a great weekend! Lots of things are going on in markets right now, perhaps most importantly China, so let’s dive right into that.
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FX Watch: Everything that matters for EUR/USD is natural gas
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
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The Energy Cable #29 – A weak USD paving the way for commodities?
The sudden weakness in the USD adds to the list of positives for energy and commodities overall. Is the best possible bull setup now in place? We take a look.
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5 Things We Watch – US CPI, Japan, Positioning, Fed Borrowing and Oil
With the US inflation report coming in later today, we have a look at the 5 things that we are keeping an eye out for in markets.
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The Energy Cable #28 Is there life in Energy after all?
Rates are moving on the back of strong numbers in the labor market, but energy is not finding a bid… yet? This week we wonder if there is life in energy after all.
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5 Things We Watch – The Equity Rally, the Chinese consumption problem, Consumers vs Corporates, 20/21 reversed?, MBS and the Fed
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
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The Energy Cable #27 – Negative electricity prices in Europe, while Saudi Arabia strikes again
Europe has seen some remarkable energy prices in recent days with record negative electricity prices in the North Western part of the continent, while Saudi Arabia strikes again and prolongs the supply cuts into August.
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The Energy Cable #26 – Oil Waiting For July, while LNG prices fade
Energy markets remain calm despite a truly turbulent weekend in Russia. We look at the fundamentals of both Gas and Oil below.
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The Energy Cable #24 – Speculators vs AbS
We are now experiencing a full-blown battle between Saudi Arabia and oil specs! Will Saudi Arabia get the upper hand or do they suffer from diminishing returns?
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The Energy Cable #23 – MBS vs Biden!
The battle between MBS and Biden seems to be intensifying and so far Saudi Arabia is struggling to get the upper hand. Will the OPEC+ supply cut prove to be a game changer for markets?
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The Great Game – Betrayal from the inside threatens OPEC solidarity
Why – even after successive cuts – does crude oil keep settling on a $70 barrel? The conundrum has pitted the OPEC+ alliance against each other. Suspicious eyes are turning away from outside foes, and are now looking inwards, trying to sniff out the mole who is free-riding on the collective. Will the imposter be detrimental to Saudi’s production cut strategy?
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Oil Watch: MBS vs. Biden intensifies
Saudi Arabia once again attempts to gain the upper hand in the oil-market. There is no doubt that the frosty relationship between MBS and Biden plays a part in the ongoing oil-tango, but will Saudi Arabia succeed? We doubt it.
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The Energy Cable #22 – China is not playing ball
Will OPEC+ be able to rock the boat in energy markets again? Saudi Arabian budget break-evens are probably 5-7$ above current selling prices and MBS could be tempted to try and force the price higher again. The issue is that China is not playing ball and other OPEC+ members oppose further production cuts.
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