If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
Is Nat Gas suddenly the cheapest macro asset on earth? Natural Gas prices are through the floor, which dynamics have improved in the oil space. Let’s have a look at it.
Last week we were close to writing our obituary on our crude oil long position and this week we are almost back in green. The last few weeks in crude have surely been something!
We are approaching make or break territory for early spring cuts from the ECB and the Fed. Revisions to CPI numbers will play a crucial role in the coming days.
There are early signs that Political risks have plateaued in the Oil space and US military retaliations may not be as escalatory as portrayed by many media outlets. Read our week’s geopolitics take below!
Buy the fear and sell the hype is our overarching mantra in EM these days. Read how below!
Are Iran and the US headed for war? What steps lay ahead of us? And how could it spill over in to oil prices and inflation?
The Red Sea crisis contagion is spreading to the energy space. With signs of stress emerging in Energy Markets, we have entered a timely long as positioning remains light despite the ongoing Red Sea debacles.
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and it wouldn’t surprise us to see spill-overs to the energy space by now. Here is an update on the situation!
The shipping situation keeps worsening with some early spill-overs to the energy space. It remains to be seen whether tankers will be redirected to the extent seen with containers, but the risk remains elevated.
Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!
Have Shipping companies suddenly made a deal with the Houthis? It sounds unlikely to us, and we will address why in this Suez Special of our Energy Cable publication.
The Red Sea tensions are growing amidst very soft inflation numbers. Is the duration rally at risk of being derailed?
Tensions are clearly on the rise in the Red Sea with fatal stand-offs over the New Years weekend. The most recent satellite photo evidence suggests that supply chain disruptions are material but manageable. Will the Houthis propel energy- and transportation costs again?
The weekly EIA numbers keep surprising with extremely strong energy demand, while USD liquidity is about to soar further. Interesting cocktail, which is not necessarily disinflationary in the US in 2024.
Our demand-based models on oil are through the roof and the demand has been exceptionally strong from a seasonal perspective in December. Is the narrative of a weak energy demand wrong?
The oil price has made a “sneaky” comeback over Christmas amidst the global duration/receiver party. Time to hedge duration bets in energy space?
The Bank of Japan is not really warming up for action in January, which is the next meeting with an updated view on the “outlook for economic activity and prices”. Meanwhile, the Houthis are trying to distort global supply chains.
Oil is suddenly back in fashion on the back of a dovish FOMC meeting and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Is the oil bet back on? Or is it too early?
A big central bank week is approaching its end and the Fed is back as the biggest dove in town. Does it make sense? Meanwhile, Oil demand dynamics keep delivering.
The energy demand is rebounding in the US and on some metrics we are reaching all time high. The supply side better remain strong. Here is our EIA Watch!
COP28, Gaza, and Japan have taken center stage in our analysis of global geopolitics this week. Read our 3 key points below!
Judging from the most recent data evidence, it remains hard to see the cracks in the US economy even if they continue to appear in various forward-looking indicators. The oil demand was for example all-time-high in week 48.
The EIA report shows extremely solid demand (as we anticipated for November) but yet price action is not supportive at all in the energy space. What is wrong?
The bearish price action continues in oil, while the BoJ meeting in December is suddenly seen as “live” by market participants. Can BoJ move the needle before year-end?
Markets remain unconvinced by the OPEC meeting, but history tells us to expect a strengthening quota compliance in coming months. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing is likely to surprise !
Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
Happy Tuesday to everyone from a freezy Copenhagen, where temperatures in Northern Europe finally get to test the natural gas markets. Before we get to that, we first have our OPEC preview.
The strong US data seasonality into year end could wreak havoc with the current early Santa Rally in cyclicals. We are on high alert for a hawkish reaction function in December.