The reflation will likely continue as long as Powell and his ilk keeps an implicit dovish bias intact. Energy markets will likely remain bid, but the broader commodity story seems more interesting to play than oil at these levels.
Israel-Iran War Coming?
Are Israel and Iran headed for war? We give our analysis and paint out the most likely scenario.
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Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China
This week we hone in on the consequences of the Ukraine’s successful attacks on Russian refiners and how to play it along with some thoughts on our profit taking in metal space as something BIG is cooking in China!
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Energy Cable #60: Copper getting some help from China?
The Chinese moves toward larger fiscal deficits may be helpful for the energy- and industrial metal cases, but we still lack confirmation from the actual manufacturing cycle globally. Could the commodity complex be the macro case of 2024?
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Energy Watch: Is Nat Gas THE macro case of 2024?
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
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Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub
Is Nat Gas suddenly the cheapest macro asset on earth? Natural Gas prices are through the floor, which dynamics have improved in the oil space. Let’s have a look at it.
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Energy Cable: The rollercoaster in crude oil continues
Last week we were close to writing our obituary on our crude oil long position and this week we are almost back in green. The last few weeks in crude have surely been something!
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Something for your Espresso: A day of revisions and reckonings
We are approaching make or break territory for early spring cuts from the ECB and the Fed. Revisions to CPI numbers will play a crucial role in the coming days.
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Great Game – Why Biden goes soft on Iran
There are early signs that Political risks have plateaued in the Oil space and US military retaliations may not be as escalatory as portrayed by many media outlets. Read our week’s geopolitics take below!
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EM by EM #41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear
Buy the fear and sell the hype is our overarching mantra in EM these days. Read how below!
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The Great Game – Iran-USA War?
Are Iran and the US headed for war? What steps lay ahead of us? And how could it spill over in to oil prices and inflation?
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Energy Cable #55: Red Sea troubles leading to breakout in oil!
The Red Sea crisis contagion is spreading to the energy space. With signs of stress emerging in Energy Markets, we have entered a timely long as positioning remains light despite the ongoing Red Sea debacles.
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Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and it wouldn’t surprise us to see spill-overs to the energy space by now. Here is an update on the situation!
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Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply getting out of balance?
The shipping situation keeps worsening with some early spill-overs to the energy space. It remains to be seen whether tankers will be redirected to the extent seen with containers, but the risk remains elevated.
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Out of the Box #26: OPEC is dead in it current form
Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!
Energy Cable #52: Suez Troubles or a Houthi peace deal with Shipping companies?
Have Shipping companies suddenly made a deal with the Houthis? It sounds unlikely to us, and we will address why in this Suez Special of our Energy Cable publication.
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Something for your Espresso: Balancing soft inflation and Houthis
The Red Sea tensions are growing amidst very soft inflation numbers. Is the duration rally at risk of being derailed?
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Energy Cable #51: Tensions increasing fast in the Red Sea
Tensions are clearly on the rise in the Red Sea with fatal stand-offs over the New Years weekend. The most recent satellite photo evidence suggests that supply chain disruptions are material but manageable. Will the Houthis propel energy- and transportation costs again?
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Something for your Espresso: USD liquidity and fuel demand
The weekly EIA numbers keep surprising with extremely strong energy demand, while USD liquidity is about to soar further. Interesting cocktail, which is not necessarily disinflationary in the US in 2024.
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Oil Watch: Why is demand RECORD high, when we are told the opposite?
Our demand-based models on oil are through the roof and the demand has been exceptionally strong from a seasonal perspective in December. Is the narrative of a weak energy demand wrong?
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Something for your Espresso: Oil to spoil the duration party?
The oil price has made a “sneaky” comeback over Christmas amidst the global duration/receiver party. Time to hedge duration bets in energy space?
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Something for your Espresso: The one on Houthis and Ueda
The Bank of Japan is not really warming up for action in January, which is the next meeting with an updated view on the “outlook for economic activity and prices”. Meanwhile, the Houthis are trying to distort global supply chains.
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Energy Cable #50: Oil back in fashion
Oil is suddenly back in fashion on the back of a dovish FOMC meeting and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Is the oil bet back on? Or is it too early?
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Something for your Espresso: Phew..
A big central bank week is approaching its end and the Fed is back as the biggest dove in town. Does it make sense? Meanwhile, Oil demand dynamics keep delivering.
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EIA Nugget: Another STRONG demand week for Energy in the US
The energy demand is rebounding in the US and on some metrics we are reaching all time high. The supply side better remain strong. Here is our EIA Watch!
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Great Game – Climate, chips and corruption!
COP28, Gaza, and Japan have taken center stage in our analysis of global geopolitics this week. Read our 3 key points below!
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Steno Signals #77 – Oil demand is ALL TIME HIGH
Judging from the most recent data evidence, it remains hard to see the cracks in the US economy even if they continue to appear in various forward-looking indicators. The oil demand was for example all-time-high in week 48.
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EIA Watch: ALL TIME HIGH Oil demand, but so what?
The EIA report shows extremely solid demand (as we anticipated for November) but yet price action is not supportive at all in the energy space. What is wrong?
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Something for your Espresso: Saudi Arabians losing the battle?
The bearish price action continues in oil, while the BoJ meeting in December is suddenly seen as “live” by market participants. Can BoJ move the needle before year-end?
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Something for your Espresso: The one on Angola, short-sellers and ISMs
Markets remain unconvinced by the OPEC meeting, but history tells us to expect a strengthening quota compliance in coming months. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing is likely to surprise !
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