The crude market is rife with subtle tit-for-tat politics, and there’s little to indicate this dynamic will change. We delve into the current state of the oil market and share our thoughts on our current position at this stage below:

First we broke USD 80, then Al Jazeera reported a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, which was retracted 15 min later. The market didn’t care and pounded the sell-bottom all the way back below 78 even with (on the paper) strong jobs and PMI prints out of the US coming out in the meantime. Now it seems like the market has woken up and smelled the coffee, let’s see how long it lasts this time. We remained in long crude and luckily didn’t get stopped out last week.   

Chart 1: You just have to moan enough for crude to get >80 again