Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more during the next weeks. Good news for gas markets in Europe.

We start this week by honing in on reports from the Houthis that they intend to close all three waterways in the Middle East. Last Sunday we counted 3 crude/LNG carriers going around the Cape of Good Hope. Judging by satellite pictures this week that number is up.

It is however worth noting that there is still activity in the Red Sea and we cannot account for ships that are too big to pass through the Suez. If the Houthis go through with this move, it would be some escalation against the likes of Saudi Arabia and given that MBS hasn’t been trigger-shy in Yemen over the last years it seems like the move would also mean that the Houthis will have bitten of more than they can chew.

Chart 1.a.: Crude and LNG tankers towards Europe