Things are heating up in the Middle East with Israel still carrying out offensive operations in Gaza, the Houthis still threatening international shipping, missile strikes all around the place, and the tragic death of three US servicemen. It’s time to keep a cool head and lay out the likely scenarios and the potential effects on global markets. In this week’s Great Game, I’ll try to answer some of the most immediate questions in order to give you some sense of what’s going on.

Iran and the US headed for war?

In short – no. Tensions are undeniably rising and we will continue to see escalation over the coming weeks. However, we must remember to think less black and white about peace and war. There are lots of stages and steps in between the two, and that’s where Iran and the US are going to be tip-toeing over the coming weeks. Let me try and draw up a ‘roadmap’ of escalations between the US and Iran:

With the attacks on US bases in Jordan, we have now moved into step 3…