Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?
The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.
Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.
Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.
Chart 7: Cheat sheet on how to model Norges Banks rate path
The very mechanical rate path setup of Norges Bank allows us to track the rate path live, and in sharp contrast to elsewhere, it looks like we are ripe for another hawkish revision of the path in September.
The highly systematic rate path setup of Norges Bank allows us to track the rate path live. In sharp contrast to other regions, it appears that we are poised for another hawkish revision of the path in September.
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