Most people tend to agree that the amount of money in an economy affects economic conditions. More money makes consumers buy more goods and services, and the excess demand leads to increasing prices.. but what happens when we destroy USDs as we currently do? More SVB cases show up!
The consumer is rebounding fast due to several inflation-linked technicalities in January, while China is now obviously open for business. This should be fuel for equities despite all the bear-porn out there, but also worrying from an inflation perspective.
After an outright terrible end to 2022 for consumer spending, 2023 has started off on a better note. Is the consumer spending back? And what are the driving forces behind the consumption comeback in case?
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
A big bounce in ISM Services and suddenly the higher for longer spills-over to equities. The current rebound has higher rates tattooed all over it but is it sensible?
We have been spending countless hours discussing the liquidity outlook in the US, but developments elsewhere are equally as interesting. JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Position accordingly?
With the recent almost farcical economic data coming out of the US, we bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.
Our macro regime indicator is based on liquidity, inflation and growth, which are the three most important tactical asset allocation variables. Here is how we have built the framework and what to expect from it in the coming months.
We look into how traders are positioned every Saturday to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Is this a new bull run or just another bear market rally? Let’s have a look at the numbers
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
In my base-case, we are going to see a double-top inflation picture, but I sincerely hope that we don’t resummon our inner financial illiterates, if rates drop towards 0% due to temporary disinflation
Germany is doing MUCH better than reported on the Nat Gas front, while everyone seems to agree upon a European zombie-apocalypse scenario making July/August the most hated rally ever.
Duration has been “killed” by financial markets over the past year, which carries repercussions for all asset classes. How can you track duration across assets and is the duration sell-off over?
