Oil positioning is not as long as people think when looking at actual volumes, bonds are still underperforming, and the bearish sentiment in equities still prevails. Read along for more positioning data insights!
We’ve taken a massive WIN in recent weeks, but the markets are precarious here after blood on the street as seasonality shifts. Is there a final surge before the impending collapse?
When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
7.30 was the line in the sand but can the Chinese defend their thench? We find it unlikely. But the battleground is not a safe place yet
Rhetorical intervention in JPY and CNY helped risk assets and high beta stocks perform yesterday, but is the stabilization sustainable or still fundamentally challenged? We lean towards the latter.
The first signs of a weakening job market are here, but will there be more to come? And what are the implications for equity markets?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
The Turkish central bank hiked the interest rates by 750 basis points against the market expectations of 200 bp underlying this month and both stocks & lira rallied on the back of it. Where is the Turkey case heading from here? Read our view here
Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context
CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
A lot of volatility and plenty of aspects to digest after a red week in markets. But how have positioning and sentiment moved? Read here to for our view
The tightening cycle continues for both the Fed, ECB and now also BoJ, and that means it’s time to revisit global money trends to see what might happen next.
The central bank week is over, and that means it’s time for us to have a look at how Investors and Traders perceived the Fed meeting and how they have adjusted their portfolios in response.
BoJ’s decision is of course the big talking point for markets this week. Our book keeps up despite some impact from Ueda’s decision- but what will it mean and how will we trade it in the coming weeks? Read our view below
Earlier this week we identified possible curtain-raisers on near-term developments in US manufacturing, and with parts of the Philly Fed Survey backing our findings, what can be expected for equities?
We have been bullish on Brazil for months and got the market and timing right. But what about Brazilian stocks? Could they prove to be a buy here?
With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?
We are back up on the week having forecasted the CPI record better than the street but contrary to the prevailing sentiment we think this juncture may prove a little counterintuitive
Volatility has been detrimental to many books this week which too is reflected in some of our positions and it appears that diversification is gaining increased significance given the resurgence of volatility. Traders who are not paying attention here will pay for it involuntarily
5 Things We Watch – The Equity Rally, the Chinese consumption problem, Consumers vs Corporates, 20/21 reversed?, MBS and the Fed
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Economic data keeps surprising us positively, and markets are starting to believe that a soft landing is the base case. That’s at least what positioning data is telling us.
Follow along as we keep you updated on our live portfolio and how we view the world allocation-wise every week!
2021 will be remembered as a great policy error year at the FED and the ECB. But other central banks saw the inflation coming. Will they be in front of the curve again in 2023?
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
With today’s recessionary PMI numbers, hawkish central bank rhetoric and a shift in price action, there are good reasons to believe that positioning might flip from now on, as investors will likely prefer bonds over equities.
50bps from Norges Bank and the Bank of England, which will raise the stake for the RIksbank next week. Equities having a hard time due to the sudden resurfacing hawkishness.
Large parts of the stock market have rallied recently, and whispers of a new bull market are steadily surfacing. Has the time come for caving in to bulls, or are we just seeing the results of impatience after 1,5 years of limbo?
5 Things We Watch – The AI bubble, EUR Liquidity, Pivot hopes, the bull case for markets and UK Inflation
With the recent central bank bonanza, pivot hopes and the ongoing rally in equities, there are plenty of things to take a look at in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’. Follow along, as we share our thoughts on what to look out for in the weeks to come.
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.