A few wobbly days over the past 48 hours have left markets and pundits debating whether the Trump trade is exhausted. We view this as a dip to load up on.
Steno Signals #119 – A tsunami of liquidity is upcoming in Q4
China just pulled a market stunt right before a flood of liquidity hits, and the Fed is cooking up some magic liquidity tricks to keep things lively. Buckle up for Q4.
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Portfolio Watch: No respite for Asian FX.. How to deal with it?
The accelerating USD vs Asian FX trends will impact markets across assets into next week. What’s cheap and what’s expensive if the CNY is getting devalued in the coming weeks?
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Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
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Positioning Watch – Spread-trading the way through the current environment
Rate cuts have been pushed a bit back by central bankers as economic data keeps surprising, but price action doesn’t truly reflect the dynamics we’ve been used to through 2022 and 2023. How should you play the current environment?
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Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
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Positioning Watch – Markets betting on lower rates and higher oil prices
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?
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Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
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Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?
The path to 2% has proven to be more difficult than anticipated, and the disinflation-trend is now potentially starting to turn in the US. Are markets positioned accordingly?
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Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put
Powell had his fun in December and now Yellen is preparing her next move. Here is how we play it
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Positioning Watch – Where to find value currently
The risk aversion theme for 2024 continues as data is starting to go against consensus, and the question for 2024 will be where to find true value in asset markets. A couple of thoughts and charts on that here.
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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
While we’ve persistently underscored the risks of intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and enduring inflation in the US, it’s evident that politics serves as the unifying factor behind both. Read how we are playing this environment below!
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Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?
Markets seem to have given up the perfect landing narrative, and the ultra-long positioning in bonds and equities has started to retrace. A more mixed 2024 upcoming?
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EM by EM #37: The Taiwan election & the Trade war
The upcoming Taiwan election is just one chapter in the larger narrative of US-Sino relations, which is poised to return to the forefront of financial markets in the 2024 US election year. Will Taipei further contribute to the rising tension?
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EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023
We, just like Goldman Sachs and many others, have been caught off guard in China over the past year. Here’s why
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Something for your Espresso: What happened to stonks?
Risk assets remain in overbought territory and weak FedEx reporting triggered a reversal. They say that FedEx is the economy, which is why 2024-tails keep getting fatter.
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EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the beast alive
With investor sentiment through the floor in China, we take a look at the policy tool kit for 2024. Is China set for a rebound or will the sentiment remain stuck in the abyss?
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Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus
On the back of a Fed meeting markets have been partying like there is no tomorrow. We assess the recent moves in positioning and reflect on how we see markets move leading into 2024
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Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell handing out gifts even to the naughty!
The animal spirits will likely be fully unleashed by Powell’s pivot and this is exactly what’s needed to bring about the type of complacency that is needed to foster the actual recession that everyones been talking about for a long while.
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Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the name of the Game
With Central bank bonanza week in the rearview mirror, we reflect on the state of current pricing and reveal how we like to be positioned. Read our full Portfolio Watch below!
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Bull Steepening Watch – Is lower yields really what risk assets want?
Nothing comes for free, and a bull steepening of the yield curve is typically not great for risk assets. Will this time be different? Markets better hope so.
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EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling
After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality
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Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
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Portfolio Watch: How we play the last FOMC meeting of 2023
We have made adjustments to our portfolio in preparation for the FOMC decision week,. Read our full take of the current macroeconomic landscape and see our new positions below
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Trade Alert: A defensive yet cyclical tilt
We see cyclicality as overcooked in equity space, but find ways to exploit the stretched positioning.
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Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical recession to an real one?
The ECB Hawks have taken significant steps towards a forthcoming policy pivot. But what if they remain on the backfoot?
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Positioning Watch – Everything better turn out the way markets want it
Equity markets are as bullish as they were in 2021, while fixed-income markets continue to price Fed cuts in for Q2-2024. Are there reasons to worry about current market positioning? Find out here.
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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?
We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
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Positioning Watch – All about the soft landing narrative
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
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Portfolio Watch: The last dance?
We have taken the unpopular decision of being net long USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning below
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