Most people tend to agree that the amount of money in an economy affects economic conditions. More money makes consumers buy more goods and services, and the excess demand leads to increasing prices.. but what happens when we destroy USDs as we currently do? More SVB cases show up!
5 things we watch: Consumer Spending, Seasonality, China, Earnings and Tesla
The consumer is rebounding fast due to several inflation-linked technicalities in January, while China is now obviously open for business. This should be fuel for equities despite all the bear-porn out there, but also worrying from an inflation perspective.
Spending Watch – The consumer is back
After an outright terrible end to 2022 for consumer spending, 2023 has started off on a better note. Is the consumer spending back? And what are the driving forces behind the consumption comeback in case?
5 things we watch: Higher(er) for longer(er), the consumer, core price pressures, energy prices and cyclicals
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
Something for your Espresso: Good news is bad news?
A big bounce in ISM Services and suddenly the higher for longer spills-over to equities. The current rebound has higher rates tattooed all over it but is it sensible?
Steno Signals #35 – Has global liquidity bottomed already?
We have been spending countless hours discussing the liquidity outlook in the US, but developments elsewhere are equally as interesting. JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Position accordingly?
US inflation watch – Charts, charts, charts
With the recent almost farcical economic data coming out of the US, we bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.
Asset Allocation Watch: Introducing our macro regime indicator methodology
Our macro regime indicator is based on liquidity, inflation and growth, which are the three most important tactical asset allocation variables. Here is how we have built the framework and what to expect from it in the coming months.
Positioning Watch – Is this a bear market rally or the beginning of a bull run?
We look into how traders are positioned every Saturday to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Is this a new bull run or just another bear market rally? Let’s have a look at the numbers
Steno Signals #24 – Bipolar China
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
Steno Signals #21 – 3 reasons why everyone, Zuckerberg, me, and their dogs turn into idiots when rates are 0%
In my base-case, we are going to see a double-top inflation picture, but I sincerely hope that we don’t resummon our inner financial illiterates, if rates drop towards 0% due to temporary disinflation
Steno Signals #12 – You will all hate me after this..
Germany is doing MUCH better than reported on the Nat Gas front, while everyone seems to agree upon a European zombie-apocalypse scenario making July/August the most hated rally ever.
Steno Signals #7: Duration is getting killed across all asset classes
Duration has been “killed” by financial markets over the past year, which carries repercussions for all asset classes. How can you track duration across assets and is the duration sell-off over?