A “hump” may be on the way in the US economy but can the Fed steer clear of the gathering storm, while Chairman Powell has left the market in front of the monetary policy wheel? We remain skeptical
Positioning Watch – Positioning for lower yields and weaker USD
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
Positioning Watch – The cocktail of heavy logs in both equities and bonds
After today’s soft inflation report from the US, we have a look at how markets are positioned at current junctures. Find out if you have your eggs in the right basket, and what consensus is currently.
Portfolio Watch: Staying afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?
Last week’s rally was truly remarkable, especially considering the months of hardship that most assets endured prior. Could this be the long-awaited revenge of the longs, with short covering poised to dominate the price action in the days ahead? Dive into our analysis below to find out.
Steno Signals #72 – When a recession meets a melt-up in equities and bonds
The Fed introduced a new feedback loop, which is likely to limit the scope of this bear market rally. Remember that Q4 data usually looks really bad in an inflationary environment, while Q1 is the quarter of “inflation math”.
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Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?
A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks
Positioning Watch: Who blinks first?
These days, everything seems to be in motion, but not all at the same pace of change. Dive into our inaugural Monday edition of Positioning Watch below to discern the disparities
Steno Signals #71 – A first taste of the recession sell-off?
The developments in the Middle East have refueled the recession fears and markets are getting concerned due to the spike in term premiums. Is this a first taste of the recession sell-off coming? Here is how we deal with it.
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Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro
From the ongoing depletion of the Chinese US Treasury holdings, to the BoJ’s impact on global markets concluding with the $-liquidity impact of the ON RRP facility. Here’s a list of 10 MUST watch charts in macro.
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Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic
A volatile week with plenty on the plate for investors. Biden’s push for war funding while Capitol Hill remains in gridlock. How are the bets stacking up? Dive into our weekly positioning watch below to find out
Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?
We barely dare suggest it. But are bonds finally reap for entry on the long side? We are definitely getting there. Read our latest Portfolio Watch below
Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War
In the wake of this tragic situation that is still unfolding, investors are grappling with the need to understand and navigate the turmoil. See our main Positioning takeaways here
Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic
Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below
Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out
There has been a load of discussions on the timing of the recession, but just as the consensus narrative is shifting towards a soft landing scenario, the recession risk is probably actually on the rise. Here is why.
Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?
As we review the events of this eventful week, it unfortunately appears to conclude with a tragic development, as we find ourselves reporting on the potential beginning of yet another conflict.
Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender
The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below
Recession Nugget: 4 Charts for the Equity Bears, 1 Chart for the Bulls!
We have looked at historical macro data to assess how assets perform around and in a recession, and if we are actually heading towards one.
Positioning Watch – Oil longs are not as big as you think
Oil positioning is not as long as people think when looking at actual volumes, bonds are still underperforming, and the bearish sentiment in equities still prevails. Read along for more positioning data insights!
Portfolio Watch: The last gasp of a dying man?
We’ve taken a massive WIN in recent weeks, but the markets are precarious here after blood on the street as seasonality shifts. Is there a final surge before the impending collapse?
EM by EM #23 Playing the least dirty laundry vs the dirtiest
When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
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Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?
The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
EM by EM #21 Why China is uninvestable yet tough to short
7.30 was the line in the sand but can the Chinese defend their thench? We find it unlikely. But the battleground is not a safe place yet
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Something for your Espresso: Is the stabilization in Asian FX sustainable?
Rhetorical intervention in JPY and CNY helped risk assets and high beta stocks perform yesterday, but is the stabilization sustainable or still fundamentally challenged? We lean towards the latter.
Conclusion on Services Week: Our take on equities and the labor market
The first signs of a weakening job market are here, but will there be more to come? And what are the implications for equity markets?
Services Week: What to buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
EM by EM #19 The Simsek Effect kicking in?
The Turkish central bank hiked the interest rates by 750 basis points against the market expectations of 200 bp underlying this month and both stocks & lira rallied on the back of it. Where is the Turkey case heading from here? Read our view here
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Portfolio Watch: Catching a Chinese cold?
Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context
Positioning Watch – The Chinese disappointment is written all over the latest positioning
CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
Positioning Watch: From Japan with Love
A lot of volatility and plenty of aspects to digest after a red week in markets. But how have positioning and sentiment moved? Read here to for our view