The positioning is very negative in energy markets, which looks like a decent contrarian signal to us. We continue to like energy (both oil and Nat Gas) versus metals into July.
Energy Cable: A new supply side crisis brewing in Nat Gas space?
We are once again long the mother of all window maker trades, but there are interesting moves to trade in the energy space again, as the supply side of Nat Gas (and Oil) is back in the lime-light.
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Something for your Espresso: Necessity-flation is RETURNING
Signs of re-acceleration in food- and energy prices are present in many G10 countries, which may be a strong hint ahead of the USD inflation report next week.
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Energy Cable: The recipe for another summer of exploding energy prices (in Europe)
We present the ingredients needed for another potential acceleration of electricity prices in Europe over the Summer and looking at data it seems like chances are becoming greater
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Energy Watch: Is Nat Gas THE macro case of 2024?
If the manufacturing cycle is indeed improving, Natural Gas is starting to look extremely cheap. Here is the case..
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Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and it wouldn’t surprise us to see spill-overs to the energy space by now. Here is an update on the situation!
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Energy Watch: Red Sea situation is worsening with spill-overs to energy
Iran is now more directly getting involved in the Red Sea after another week of freight rate increases. We are now seeing spill-overs to parts of the energy space.
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COP28 Nuclear Deal – Implications for the Global Clean Energy Race
The COP28 nuclear treaty is the latest chapter in the story about the U.S.-China weapons race in clean tech.
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Energy Cable #49: Ouch …..
The oil market remains muted despite record high US demand, but the supply side is not as weak as anticipated, which has even wrongfooted the OPEC group. Meanwhile, mother nature doesn’t play with a long bet in Nat Gas.
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Energy Cable: The review that became a preview!
Happy Tuesday to everyone from a freezy Copenhagen, where temperatures in Northern Europe finally get to test the natural gas markets. Before we get to that, we first have our OPEC preview.
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Trade alert: Fueling up!
We find a strong risk/reward setup in the energy space again..
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5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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USD’o’meter: Is King USD about to reverse?
The soft inflation report from the US led to a substantial sell-off in the USD alongside weaker real rates, but is the tide turning for the USD? Our models are not convinced yet.
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EIA Watch: September weakness was fake news. Time to buy oil?
The latest EIA report once again shows that September was just a data glimpse, and that oil demand is still going relatively strong in the US. Long oil a bet for the last month of 2023?
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5 things we watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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Energy Cable #46: Scholz to the rescue!
German politicians have agreed to subsidize energy bills for the heavy industry, which will likely lead to an increased demand for a scarce commodity. Is this the right timing to enter long bets in Natural Gas again?
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Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a diversifier + JPY focus
Your weekly Energy Cable with thoughts on the growing correlations across natural gas and electricity in Europe and a quick JPY take
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EIA Watch: Strong Energy demand month in October, except in Nat Gas
Every week we adjust the demand side data in the EIA report for the noise of seasonality and methodology issues. Our view that October would show a strong rebound compared to September has been proven correct, except in Nat Gas.
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CPI watch: 6 charts on a soft’ish inflation report
The US inflation report is likely to look soft and risks are on the low side of consensus estimates, especially for core inflation. The medium-term issue is that our indicators hint of a bottom above 2%.
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Macro Nugget: How do markets react to turmoil in Gaza/Israel?
The market opening hints of a stronger USD, higher energy prices, and slightly rising long bond yields. Is the opening price data backed up by empirical evidence? Let’s have a look.
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Something for your Espresso: Steep, steeper, steepest?
The curve steepener remains the best risk/reward trade in global macro as the Asian doom loop now adds to steepening pressures. With the PBoC, the BoJ and the CBI in intervention territory, should we expect further pressures?
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Nuclear Nugget (FREE): 3 Questions For The Nuclear Space
Hi and welcome to this free post where we wanted to touch upon uranium and nuclear energy since it has been a trending topic for a couple of weeks now. We pose 3 questions which we briefly try to answer in order to give you an idea where we are and what is going on in the uranium and nuclear space.
Out of the Box #20: Gas and Steepeners brought to you by Muftis and Tsars
The reliance on Muftis and Zars in the energy policy reminds us of the 1970s and 1980s. Steepeners, higher Natural Gas Prices and tighter fiscal policy will likely be the end game in that order.
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Trade Alert: We engage in a trade to profit on rising energy prices
We back our words with action as we step into an equity spread trade. Please see the context below for further details
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Remember our Monthly Premium Q&A on Tuesday
Tune in to the monthly Q&A to hear all about Part 2 of the Energy Crisis!
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Steno Signals #66: Buckle up for the energy crisis 2.0
Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and dÃscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!
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Something for your Espresso: A diesel crisis is brewing
The Russian curbs on diesel exports arrive at a bad timing with already low inventories ahead of peak demand season. Central banks trying to pause amidst this will feel the wrath from long bond yields.
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Energy Watch: Time for Nat Gas to outshine Oil?
Is the divergence between energy stocks and oil markets worth noticing? And could the risk/reward be shifting towards other parts of the energy space?
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Positioning Watch: Energy is not (yet) a consensus
Betting against Europe is becoming increasingly popular, but the energy trade is yet to become overcrowded. Here is the weekly positioning report.
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Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?
The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.
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