Hi and welcome to this free post where we wanted to touch upon uranium and nuclear energy since it has been a trending topic for a couple of weeks now. We pose 3 questions which we briefly try to answer in order to give you an idea where we are and what is going on in the uranium and nuclear space.
The reliance on Muftis and Zars in the energy policy reminds us of the 1970s and 1980s. Steepeners, higher Natural Gas Prices and tighter fiscal policy will likely be the end game in that order.
We back our words with action as we step into an equity spread trade. Please see the context below for further details
Tune in to the monthly Q&A to hear all about Part 2 of the Energy Crisis!
Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and díscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!
The Russian curbs on diesel exports arrive at a bad timing with already low inventories ahead of peak demand season. Central banks trying to pause amidst this will feel the wrath from long bond yields.
Is the divergence between energy stocks and oil markets worth noticing? And could the risk/reward be shifting towards other parts of the energy space?
Betting against Europe is becoming increasingly popular, but the energy trade is yet to become overcrowded. Here is the weekly positioning report.
The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
Our services week is hot and running, where we share our take on the rebound in manufacturing amidst a weakening in the services sector. Today we will share some of the takes we have looked at, as well as what lies ahead
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
Sticky inflation, renewed issues with high energy costs and a light recession in the making already. Europe screams stagflation and even the ECB admits to it. Meanwhile, we are edging closer to the actual payroll recession in the US.
Early evidence from Germany suggests that energy is back wreaking havoc with the disinflation momentum. Meanwhile markets see the landslide in job openings in the US as recessionary, but is it really?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
A weaker USD, a slight rebound in the Manufacturing cycle and still tight supply has re-ignited the energy space alongside the broader commodity trend. There is certainly progress for bulls now.
The sudden weakness in the USD adds to the list of positives for energy and commodities overall. Is the best possible bull setup now in place? We take a look.
Rates are moving on the back of strong numbers in the labor market, but energy is not finding a bid… yet? This week we wonder if there is life in energy after all.
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Europe has seen some remarkable energy prices in recent days with record negative electricity prices in the North Western part of the continent, while Saudi Arabia strikes again and prolongs the supply cuts into August.
Energy markets remain calm despite a truly turbulent weekend in Russia. We look at the fundamentals of both Gas and Oil below.
We are now experiencing a full-blown battle between Saudi Arabia and oil specs! Will Saudi Arabia get the upper hand or do they suffer from diminishing returns?
The battle between MBS and Biden seems to be intensifying and so far Saudi Arabia is struggling to get the upper hand. Will the OPEC+ supply cut prove to be a game changer for markets?
In short:
Watch out for the OPEC meeting this week as desperation can become the killer of solidarity, Easing energy pressures lending a helping hand to the EM space, Industrial metals screaming for more Chinese credit impulses
Will OPEC+ be able to rock the boat in energy markets again? Saudi Arabian budget break-evens are probably 5-7$ above current selling prices and MBS could be tempted to try and force the price higher again. The issue is that China is not playing ball and other OPEC+ members oppose further production cuts.
While OPEC+ tries their best to prop up prices via cutbacks on supply, demand is evidently still not as strong as oil bulls would’ve liked. Will the Chinese momentum pick up and deplete reserves and will the turn of summer in the northern hemisphere counter such effects?
The Chinese comeback is still very services based, which has proven to be an issue for the energy bull case. Will the Chinese momentum be reignited in H2 and where does it leave the energy space?
Even the scarcity of energy will probably not bring bullish price-action back to natural gas markets, while the outlook for oil is brighter. Can oil and gas crush the obstacles that they are faced with? Find out in this version of the energy cable, where Warren and I as usual don’t quite agree.
Few markets have shown ambiguity like energy markets have, and the ghost of 2022 still haunts many investors deterring them pulling the trigger. Is a sequel brewing, or will the deterioration continue? We present to you two different takes on the matter.
